China’s decision to limit the supply of rare earths minerals to the United States represents an existential crisis for many areas of our national endeavor, but none more, perhaps, than to energy.

Rare earths are the great multiplier in the production of electricity and the efficiency of motors. Without them wind turbines would probably not be worth constructing — rare earths increase the output from a wind turbine fivefold or better and the same dynamic is at work in the efficiency of motors.

There are many other uses that will be affected by a rare earths shortage, including advanced electronics, many defense applications, and consumer products such as television sets and portable telephones.

The 17 rare earths and their different uses are a kind of secret ingredient in modern life, and to believe that we can suddenly reverse years of dependence on China is naive and dangerous.

China has a solid grip on the production of rare earths but, according to John Kutsch, executive director of the Thorium Energy Alliance, an organization devoted to the development of thorium reactors in the United States, it is in processing that China’s power is most apparent. Even rare earths produced elsewhere usually take a roundtrip journey to China for processing.

China Near Absolute Monopoly

It is with this processing of rare earths that China has a near absolute monopoly — a monopoly which won’t easily be broken. China has spent years processing rare earths, often overlooking associated environmental damage.

When it comes to the emerging U.S. crisis over rare earths, successive administrations have sighed and done nothing.

Mining them is complex, expensive and fraught with regulation here. So much so that only one rare earths mine, Mountain Pass in California’s Mojave Desert, is operational — and much of its production is committed to the Pentagon.

As the uses for rare earths have increased dramatically, the calls for the United States to do something to reduce its dependence on China have been constant and loud. Action hasn’t corresponded.

Notable for sounding the alarm has been Kutsch.

“There is no piece of modern technology that doesn’t use rare earths or other technology metals. There are no drones, windmills, electric cars, computers, lasers, radar systems, magnets of quality, or medical devices which aren’t 100-percent reliant on China for components using their critical materials,” he said.

It is a giant vulnerability and Kutsch and his colleagues have been drawing attention to it for 15 years.

“We have been telling the decision makers in Washington and at the Pentagon for 15 years that China will use rare earths as an economic weapon. And we were always told that they wouldn’t. Well, now the United States is cut off,” he said.

According to Kutsch, and others, “rare earths aren’t rare at all.” They are difficult to mine and process and, as with much else, it has just been easier and cheaper to import them from China.

Additionally, production in the United States has been hampered because rare earths are found in conjunction with thorium.

Thorium is a fertile but not a fissile nuclear material. That means that it can’t be used in a reactor without having the reaction initiated by a fissile material, like uranium.

But its classification as a nuclear source material means it must be inventoried and stored as a nuclear material and is classified by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission as such. This makes mining and processing rare earths challenging and expensive in the United States.

They Aren’t Rare At All

Kutsch lamented, “Every year, Florida produces enough rare earth ore to supply the western world’s needs. We choose not to process any of that rare earth material because it would create a small amount of slightly radioactive material.

“So, we have given up on materials refining in the United States and have decided to put our entire economic and national security fate in the hands of our No. 1 adversary”

Even if the limiting factors of associated thorium were dealt with — a national thorium bank and registry has been proposed — rare earths wouldn’t begin to flow overnight.

We simply don’t have the expertise in mining, but especially in processing rare earths. Hell, it is hard enough to get our mouths around some of the names. Try saying Praseodymium and Neodymium.

Going forward, we probably have enough in stockpiles held by rare earths-using companies to last for several months, but shortages will start appearing after that. The military is believed to have a better stockpile — enough for a year or longer — and has shown more aggressive concern than the energy sector.

Users can initiate elaborate workarounds, like using a more plentiful but less effective metal, or manufacturers may reduce the size or efficiency of systems that use rare earths, like a smaller motor in an EV.

The essential role of rare earths is as a multiplier, especially in energy applications. In their absence, they move from multiplier to decelerator, especially for renewables.