MANILA — On a warm evening outside Manila’s Baclaran church, Gerald Concepcion, 32, along with fellow believers, was adorning a float of the Virgin Mary with fresh lilies and pink carnations. He included artificial white doves in the setup, stating they were in tribute to the late Pope Francis, who had been instrumental in the Catholic Church’s progressive approach towards LGBTQ individuals.

“Pope Francis proved that God is present,” Concepcion, a dedicated Catholic and street vendor, shared with NBC News. “He welcomed everyone, including us in the gay community, who have historically been marginalized.”

Following Francis’ passing on April 21, the long-standing debate has been reignited: should the next leader maintain the status quo, or should they steer towards change, potentially revisiting the church’s previously conservative stance on matters such as homosexuality.

Luis Antonio Tagle, a Filipino cardinal often dubbed the “Asian Francis” for his emphasis on poor and marginalized people, has emerged as a possible leading contender, or papabile, when the conclave meets on May 7 to elect Francis’ replacement.

If chosen as pope, Tagle could carry with him some lessons from the Philippines. Despite being the biggest Catholic nation in Asia — about 80% of Filipinos are Catholic — and the third-largest in the world, it is also one of the more LGBTQ-friendly countries in the region.

Many gay Catholics, like Concepcion, remain active and visible members of the church, and he says Tagle offers the possibility of continuing Francis’ embrace of gay Catholics into the next papacy.

“Being gay is not wrong because we were also created by God and all things that God created are beautiful,” Concepcion added.

The Philippine Catholic Church has become more open to gay Catholics in recent years, including in a 2024 position paper in which the church acknowledged the LGBTQ community’s “important role in the life of the Roman Catholic Church in the Philippines.”

And while Tagle, who is known for avoiding provocative rhetoric and controversial issues, has rarely spoken publicly about homosexuality in his statements and homilies, he has lamented the church’s “harsh words” in the past about gay and divorced people. Filipino Catholics say they have felt supported by some of his actions and see them as potential signs of his approach to the community if he were to be elected pope.

Edwin Valles, former president of Courage Philippines, an LGBTQ organization under the Archdiocese of Manila, says he is certain that Tagle would continue embracing the gay community.

In 2014, Valles said he approached Tagle, then head of the Archdiocese of Manila, to request a priest to be assigned to guide their members, a request Tagle granted.

“It’s a commitment on his part,” Valles said. “He puts money where his mouth is. So I like to think that he will also do the same if and when he becomes pope.”

Valles tells a story from a 2018 event they both attended, when a young faithful asked the cardinal about the status of LGBTQ Catholics.

“And his answer was something like: All of us are Catholics, all of us are parishioners, all of us are children of God. So why make that label and distinction? That just serves to separate or put people in boxes,” Valles recalled Tagle saying.

A man of the people

The Jesuit-educated Tagle, 67, was born to a Filipino father and a Filipino Chinese mother who were both bankers, and Tagle grew up in a well-to-do family. He was ordained as a priest in 1982 at the age of 24, and like Francis, adopted a simple life.

From 2001 to 2011, he served as the bishop of the Diocese of Imus, a city south of Manila, and his hometown. There, Tagle took to walking the streets, greeting street vendors and motorcycle taxi drivers. Residents affectionately recalled how Tagle would sit on a wooden bench outside a humble neighborhood barbershop, Bible in hand, his presence so regular that it earned Roland, the shopkeeper, the nickname, “Holy Barber.”

Tagle then became Manila’s archbishop in 2011 and was made a cardinal by Pope Benedict XVI in 2012. In 2015, he was elected president of Caritas Internationalis, the humanitarian and development organization of the Catholic Church, and was re-elected again in 2019. That year, he moved to the Vatican after Francis appointed him head of the Dicastery for Evangelization, the church’s missionary arm.

He would fly back to the Philippines, unannounced and without fanfare, to check on his ailing parents, have his hair cut by Roland, and make surprise visits to neighbors and relatives eager to receive a blessing from a cardinal back home from the Vatican.

He ‘does not possess a prophetic voice’

Tagle is highly respected in the Philippines, where he is widely perceived as “warm, gentle, approachable, humble and at times funny,” just like Francis, Noel Asiones, an academic researcher from the University of Santo Tomas, a Catholic university in Manila, told NBC News.

As a top cleric, Tagle’s pastoral approach “reflects a leader eager to serve and emphasize meeting the needs of his flock,” Asiones said.

But the similarities seemed to end there. Unlike Francis, who spoke with forceful, moral authority on worldly issues like exploitative capitalism or the injustices of war, Asiones said, Tagle “lacks or does not possess a prophetic voice.”  

Tagle has been criticized for his inaction on sexual abuse by priests, and his silence on the extrajudicial killings ordered by the Philippines’ former President Rodrigo Duterte, in a crackdown on drugs that left tens of thousands, including children, dead. Duterte openly attacked and threatened the church, which in the Philippines has historically stood up against political power.

In the face of the flagrant human rights abuses, however, Tagle responded with statements Duterte’s opponents criticized as vague and unchallenging.

“I don’t think Tagle will be entirely Francis 2.0. For one, he opts for political correctness, often avoiding confrontational language, and seems reticent, if not afraid, to hold truth to power,” Asiones said.

A good theologian, but a poor administrator

Tagle has had significant experience in the Vatican, but observers say it has been far from stellar.

In 2022, Francis dismissed Tagle and the rest of the leadership team of Caritas Internationalis after a Vatican-led audit found “real deficiencies” in management and procedures.

What the Roman Curia needs is a pope who is also a good administrator, said Charles Collins, managing editor of Crux, an international publication focusing on the Catholic Church.

“Tagle is considered intelligent, a good theologian and a good communicator. But in many ways he has not been a very good administrator in some of the jobs he’s had in the Vatican,” Collins said. “He has not proven himself in that role.”

Francis had shaken things up in the Vatican and the cardinals may look to someone who could provide stability to replace him.

“I think the conclave is going to look at a European cardinal to become pope,” Collins said.

Three issues are expected to hound the next pope: clerical abuse, poor finances of the Vatican and the ongoing cultural war between progressives and conservatives.

Tagle might be one of the more popular papabili, but Collins cautioned that in every conclave, “there are always people who are being promoted more in the media than among the cardinals.”

“A pope from Asia or Africa is a good news story, but that does not reflect the views of the cardinal electors.”

Camille Elemia reported from Manila and Imus, Philippines.