The UFC returns to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas for Saturday’s fight card, UFC Vegas 106. In the main event of the Saturday, May 17, UFC Fight Night card, former UFC welterweight title challenger Gilbert Burns looks to hang onto his top-10 ranking against the surging, and undefeated, Michael Morales. Below, we look at the betting odds for the Burns vs. Morales fight and offer our preview, picks, and predictions for the bout.

UFC Vegas 106 Main Event: Gilbert Burns Vs. Michael Morales

Burns (22-8) is the No. 8 competitor in the official UFC welterweight rankings. Burns had won six straight when he battled then-UFC welterweight champ Kamaru Usman in February 2021. Usman won that contest by TKO in the third round. Since that setback, the 38-year-old Burns has gone 3-4. He is riding a three-fight losing skid heading into UFC Vegas 106, falling to Belal Muhammad, Jack Della Maddalena, and Sean Brady in those contests.

Burns fell from No. 6 to No. 8 following his UFC Vegas 97 decision loss to Brady in September 2024.

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Morales (17-0) joined the UFC in 2021 when he won a contract via a decision victory on a Dana White’s Contender Series fight card. Since then, Morales has gone 5-0 with the UFC with three knockouts and two decisions.

The 25-year-old Morales broke into the official UFC welterweight rankings in August when he earned a “Performance of the Night” bonus for his first-round knockout win over long-time UFC competitor Neil Magny.

The main event of UFC Vegas 106 is an excellent opportunity for the 38-year-old Burns to show that he remains an elite UFC welterweight. As for Morales, Saturday’s UFC Fight Night is his chance to show that he belongs among the top 10 of the 170-pound division.

UFC Vegas 106 Main Event: Gilbert Burns Vs. Michael Morales Betting Odds And Line Movement

When BetOnline published opening odds for this fight, Morales was the -500 betting favorite over the +300 Burns. Those odds have shifted significantly as fight night nears. Today, Morales is a -820 betting favorite over Burns, who checks in as the +570 betting underdog.

UFC Vegas 106 Main Event: Gilbert Burns Vs. Michael Morales Tale Of The Tape

Gilbert Burns

Record: 22-8 with six knockouts and nine submissions

Age: 38

Height: 5’10″

Reach: 71″

Stance: Orthodox

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Michael Morales

Record: 17-0 with 12 knockouts and one submission

Age: 25

Height: 6’0″

Reach: 79″

Stance: Orthodox

UFC Vegas 106 Main Event: Gilbert Burns Vs. Michael Morales Picks and Predictions

The UFC likes to test young up-and-coming fighters against veterans to see how they fare. Burns has been one of those veterans. In his past three bouts, he has faced (and lost to) Belal Muhammad, Jack Della Maddalena, and Sean Brady. Morales is the next fighter who could launch himself into the UFC welterweight elite with a win over Burns.

Look for Morales to dominate this fight on his way to a decision win. For those looking for betting value, you may want to wait and see, because Burns is likely to close as an even bigger underdog than he is today.

We will have more on the UFC Vegas 106 main event: Burns vs. Morales as fight night approaches, as well as results, reactions, and more on fight night.