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At times, people aren’t what they appear to be. Vance Luther Boelter, a Christian preacher with ties to a residential security firm, is under suspicion for the murder of a former Speaker of the Minnesota legislature and her spouse, as well as injuring another lawmaker and his wife. These incidents occurred in their homes just last weekend. This behavior is certainly unexpected from someone advocating for non-violence and promoting home security. Yet America seems to have an abundance of potential individuals like Boelter. There has been a significant rise in death threats towards politicians, judges, and other public figures.

Sympathies go to US law enforcement. Donald Trump narrowly avoided an assassination attempt last July, with just a quarter inch saving him from death. It’s unsettling to think of the consequences had he been killed. There are conflicting opinions about the political leanings of his would-be attacker, who expressed both liberal and Republican affiliations. However, there is little controversy over Boelter, described as a staunch conservative who, according to police, maintained a list targeting 70 Democratic officials and providers of abortion. Despite this, Mike Lee, a senator with Trump-like views from Utah, labeled Boelter a “Marxist.”

For law enforcement, the challenge is that individuals like Boelter often act alone, leading authorities to treat such killings as rare and unpredictable events. However, the threat of political assassination in the U.S. has escalated into more predictable territory. The environment is becoming increasingly conducive for potential political assassins to emerge.

According to his roommate, Boelter is a fan of Alex Jones, America’s leading conspiracy theorist. Jones is viewed as a crank but his reach is wide. Though bankrupted in a defamation suit, he continues to peddle the view that satanic globalists are out to destroy America. Their methods include paedophile rings (the “pizzagate” conspiracy), alleging fake school shootings (that the murdered children of Sandy Hook and their grieving parents were crisis actors) and the myth that the 2020 election was rigged for Joe Biden. Voltaire said that those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities. It is fair to say that America 2025 is awash in absurdity. 

It has never been easier to buy a gun and legally conceal it. More than half of US states permit concealed carry in public places, including churches and bars. Last year, more than 16mn guns were sold in the US, which is a multiple of the total stock of privately owned guns in Britain. America has 120 guns per 100 people against 4.6 in England and Wales. The next highest democracy to America is Montenegro with 39 guns per 100 people — still a third of its level.

America’s right has no monopoly on violent fantasy. Many liberals openly wish for Trump to die. But they are far less likely to own guns, watch shows that advertise guns or consume media that advocates violence. Nor are their representatives stoking the militarisation of America. Trump’s “big beautiful” budget bill that was passed by the House of Representatives last month scrapped a $200 tax on gun silencers.

Much as Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, thinks he is being stymied by regulators, the National Rifle Association stokes paranoia that the Feds are coming after your guns. In practice it is now easier than ever for people with criminal records and mental illness to get hold of firearms. The Democratic party’s inability to counter the NRA publicity machine is stunning. The left has lost nearly every fight since the ban on assault weapon sales was lifted in 2004. The frequency of US school shootings has leapt since then. 

Here is the ticking bomb. Federal agencies have for years warned that America’s chief terrorist threat comes from the far right — both lone wolves and organised militias. Biden’s administration stepped up monitoring of such threats. Trump’s FBI and his Department of Homeland Security have shuttered those units. The first big step Trump took this time as president was to pardon hundreds of people who stormed Capitol Hill four years earlier in an assault that killed uniformed officers. Last month Trump said he was thinking of pardoning the nine men convicted of a plot to kidnap Gretchen Whitmer, Michigan’s governor.

His message is plain. If you commit violence for Trump’s cause, he will have your back. That Trump nearly lost his own life is apparently immaterial. As America again offers empty thoughts and prayers to gun victims, one thing should be front of mind. The country has historically suffered phases of rife political killings and phases without. The difference lies in the level of rhetoric and availability of weapons. America in 2025 is making political murder easier. This is a choice, not fate. 

edward.luce@ft.com