How Iran and the U.S. View the Impact on Iran's Nuclear Program

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The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) of the United States has reported “credible intelligence” indicating that the US attack on Iran significantly damaged its nuclear program, despite earlier leaked intelligence reports suggesting otherwise.

CIA Director John Ratcliffe stated on Thursday that new intelligence from a historically reliable source shows that several critical Iranian nuclear facilities were destroyed, and would require years to rebuild.

The US targeted three of Iran’s nuclear facilities last weekend — specifically Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan — with President Donald Trump claiming the strikes “obliterated” these sites.

Nevertheless, the complete impact on Iran’s nuclear initiatives is somewhat ambiguous.

What have Israel and Iran said?

Israel’s nuclear agency assessed the strikes had “set back Iran’s ability to develop nuclear weapons by many years”.

Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei has also confirmed that the facilities have been “badly damaged”.

“That [damage] is certain, because [those facilities] have been under repeated attacks,” he told Al Jazeera.

However, he didn’t provide any details about the extent of the damage.

The United Nations’ nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi has stated that some of Iran’s highly enriched uranium may have survived the attacks, as Tehran could have moved it shortly after the initial strikes.

Maxar Technologies, a satellite imaging company based in the US, has released images showing vehicles and trucks at Iran’s Fordow nuclear facility just two days prior to the airstrikes targeting that and other nuclear sites.

‘We’re going to talk to them next week’

Speaking in The Hague during the NATO summit, Trump said he would likely seek a commitment from Iran to end its nuclear ambitions at talks next week.

“We’re going to talk to them next week, with Iran. We may sign an agreement. I don’t know. To me, I don’t think it’s that necessary,” Trump said.

“I’ll tell you, the last thing they want to do is enrich anything right now. They want to recover,” he said, addressing the Western claims that Iran has been enriching uranium close to weapons-grade levels.

He did not give details on the discussions, such as the venue and participants.

Trump said he was confident Tehran would pursue a diplomatic path now, despite the recent conflict.

If Iran tried to rebuild its nuclear program, “we won’t let that happen”, he said.

“Number one, militarily we won’t.”

Different signals from Iran

However, different parts of the government in Iran have sent different messages about the future of its nuclear program.

On Wednesday, in a phone call with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said they are “ready to resolve issues between themselves and the US based on international frameworks”.

In an interview with Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said that the conflict will “strengthen Iran’s will” for its nuclear program.

But he also conceded that the strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities will have wide impacts on its nuclear program.

On the other hand, on Wednesday, Iran’s parliament approved a bill to suspend cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Iran’s unelected Guardian Council would need to approve it for it to become law. The bill requires any future inspection by the IAEA to get approval from the Supreme National Security Council.

Parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf was quoted by state media as also saying Iran would accelerate its nuclear plan.

The country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is known for making the final decision in such situations, has not yet publicly commented on the matter.

— With additional reporting by Reuters.