The US labor market continues to surprise and the unemployment rate, against the odds, is falling

In June, U.S. employers increased their workforce by 147,000 jobs as the labor market in America displays remarkable stability amidst uncertainties surrounding President Donald Trump’s economic strategies. The unemployment rate slightly decreased to 4.1% from 4.2% in May, according to the Labor Department’s report on Thursday.

Hiring saw a slight rise from a revised figure of 144,000 in May, surpassing economists’ forecasts of fewer than 118,000 new jobs and an anticipated increase in the unemployment rate.

The U.S. job market has significantly slowed down from the booming period between 2021 and 2023 when the economy rebounded robustly from COVID-19 restrictions and employers were fervently seeking employees. This year, the average increase in jobs per month stands at 130,000, a decrease from 168,000 in 2024 and an average of 400,000 between 2021 and 2023.

But the June numbers were surprisingly strong. Healthcare jobs increased by 39,000. State governments added 47,000 workers and local governments 33,000. But the federal government lost 7,000, probably reflecting Trump’s hiring freeze. Manufacturers shed 7,000 jobs.

Labor Department revisions added 16,000 jobs to April and June payrolls. The number of unemployed people fell by 222,000.

Average hourly wages came in cooler than forecasters expected, rising 0.2% from May and 3.7% from a year earlier. The year-over-year number is inching closer to the 3.5% year-over-year number considered consistent with the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target.

The U.S. labor force – the count of those working and looking for work – fell by 130,000 last month following a 625,000 drop in May. Economists expect Trump’s immigration deportations – and the fear of them – to push foreign workers out of the labor force.

Hiring decelerated after the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate 11 times in 2022 and 2023. But the economy did not collapse, defying widespread predictions that the higher borrowing costs would cause a recession. Companies kept hiring, just at a more modest pace.

Employers are now contending with fallout from Trump’s policies, especially his aggressive use of import taxes – tariffs.

Mainstream economists say that tariffs raise prices for businesses and consumers alike and make the economy less efficient by reducing competition. They also invite retaliatory tariffs from other countries, hurting U.S. exporters.

The erratic way that Trump has rolled out his tariffs – announcing and then suspending them, then coming up with new ones – has left businesses bewildered.

The upside surprise in June payrolls likely will encourage the Fed to continue its wait-and-see policy of leaving rates unchanged until it has a better idea of how Trump’s tariffs and other policies will affect inflation and the job market. The Fed cut rates three times last year after inflation cooled but has turned cautious in 2025.

“Today’s results are more than positive enough to reduce expectations for Fed rate cuts in the wake of tariffs and policy chaos, at least for now,” Carl B. Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, wrote in a commentary.

Copyright © 2025 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.

You May Also Like

White House reporters share shocking choices on which Republicans could run for president after Trump

White House Reporters Reveal Surprise Republicans to Run After Trump

AUSTIN, Texas — Three high-profile White House journalists offered an early look…
Clancy holdout juror taps former Trump lawyer to fight back as he’s ‘dragged through the mud’: attorney

Lindsay Clancy’s Juror Inquiry May Pause as Both Sides Seek Delay

PLYMOUTH, Mass. — Lindsay Clancy’s defense team and Massachusetts prosecutors have agreed…
Lindsay Clancy's push to probe holdout juror hits snag before pivotal retrial hearing

Lindsay Clancy Bid to Probe Holdout Juror Hits Snag Ahead of Retrial

PLYMOUTH, Mass. — A Massachusetts judge is expected to hear arguments Tuesday…
Creep allegedly kidnapped woman, held her captive while trafficking her

Man Allegedly Kidnapped Woman, Held Her Captive for Trafficking

A Massachusetts man who was out on bail allegedly kidnapped a woman…
Iran under scrutiny after plot foiled near UK base used by US military

Iran Under Scrutiny After Foiled Plot Near UK Base Hosting US Forces

Only days after British Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband met Iran’s foreign minister…
Former death row inmate Douglas Stewart Carter appears in 4th District Court in Provo, Utah, for a bond hearing on Monday, Sept. 28, 2026.

Judge Orders Bail for Man Who Spent Decades on Utah’s Death Row

Douglas Stewart Carter was sentenced to death in 1985 after a jury…
Mass migration eroding Western sovereignty, immigration expert warns

Mass Migration Is Eroding Western Sovereignty, Immigration Expert Warns

Unchecked mass migration, especially in Western countries that have received millions of…
Nancy Guthrie cops investigate 'new possible ransom note' almost eight months on from her disappearance

Police Investigate Possible New Ransom Note in Nancy Guthrie Case

Authorities in Arizona are examining what they describe as a new, potentially…
Navy military device washed up on California beach and taken to home

Navy Military Device Washes Ashore on California Beach, Taken Home by Beachgoer

A military device capable of burning at temperatures as high as 3,000…
'American Idol' alum Caleb Flynn's interview with cops played for jury as testimony wraps in murder case

American Idol Alum Caleb Flynn’s Interview Played for Murder Jury

Former “American Idol” contestant and church pastor Caleb Flynn told police he…
South Korea fumes at Ukraine after Zelensky dishes on transfer of captured North Korean soldiers

South Korea Fumes at Zelensky Over Captured North Korean Soldiers

WASHINGTON — South Korea is demanding an apology from Ukraine after President…
Cornell attacks gang rape accuser as 'irresponsible' for essay claims while defending how it handled accusations

Cornell University Calls Gang Rape Accuser’s Essay Claims ‘Irresponsible,’ Defends Its Response to Allegations

Cornell University on Monday criticized the woman who says she was the…