Once revered for its revolutionary roots, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps amassed power through its strong ideology and intimidation. Now, following significant defeats, its future hangs in the balance.
In light of substantial military losses, Iran’s IRGC is at a crossroads. Experts discuss its origins, influence, and whether its rule of oppression and fear can persist.
Initially a marginal militia created during the revolution, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) transformed into the regime’s most feared and influential entity. However, according to Dr. Afshon Ostovar, a prominent scholar on Iran and author of “Vanguard of the Imam: Religion, Politics, and Iran’s Revolutionary Guards,” the recent attacks by the U.S. and Israel in Iran might have irrevocably changed its path.
Despite these pressures, both Ostovar and Taleblu agree that the IRGC is unlikely to turn against the regime. “Much like the regime elite, the IRGC is at a crossroads,” Taleblu said. “They have lost much of their strategic brain trust, but are likely to remain loyal for a combination of ideological and material reasons — so long as the status quo doesn’t change.”
Looking ahead, Iran may shift focus inward, relying more on domestic repression than on external terror. “They can’t get weapons into Gaza. They’ve lost access to Lebanon. They may still attempt terrorism, but they’ve failed repeatedly — especially against Israeli targets,” Ostovar said. “In contrast, repressing their own people is something they can do easily.”
He warns that Iran could become “more insular, more autocratic — more like North Korea than what it is today.” While regime collapse is always a possibility, Ostovar believes autocracies are often resilient. “Look at Venezuela or Cuba — they’ve run their countries into the ground but still hold on to power.”
In this photo released by the Iranian Red Crescent Society rescuers work at the scene of an explosion after an Israeli strike in Tehran, Iran, Friday, June 13, 2025. (Iranian Red Crescent Society via AP)
Ostovar thinks change — and not for the better — could come via generational shift. “The IRGC’s younger cadre is less religious but no less hardline,” he said. “They may not care about hijabs, but they’ve spent the last two decades fighting the U.S. and Israel in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. That’s the war they know.”
Some reformist elements within the regime envision a different path — one focused on normalization and growth. “They want to preserve the regime not by fighting the world, but by opening up to it,” Ostovar said. “They look more to Vietnam or China as models.”
Taleblu warned that despite recent setbacks, the IRGC’s grip remains strong. “Right now, the Guards have power without accountability, wielding political, economic, and military influence in Iranian policy. How this influence is channeled by the next generation of Guardsmen remains to be seen.”
