A new Daily Mail poll stands in sharp contrast to a flood of recent surveys suggesting an impending political collapse for President Donald Trump.
Apparently, Trump’s public support is on a downward trajectory – at least according to the latest Economist/YouGov poll and others.
The YouGov survey, carried out over the weekend, indicates that the president’s approval rating has dropped to 41 percent. This is a decrease of one percentage point compared to the previous week and down from 49 percent right after his inauguration.
In contrast, a new poll by the Daily Mail, in collaboration with JL Partners, reflects a different trend. It shows the president’s approval rating rising to 48 percent, an increase of one percentage point from June and marking his highest rating since May.
Back in late April, the Daily Mail poll recorded the president’s lowest approval at 45 percent. The most recent survey was conducted on July 9 and 10, involving a sample of over 1,000 registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- three percentage points.
James Johnson, JL Partners co-founder, tells the Daily Mail in an exclusive interview that the discrepancy between the polls is telling.
‘Remember: the pollsters who got the election wrong are telling you that Trump’s approval is falling off a cliff. They’re wrong,’ Johnson says. ‘Trump’s support is remarkably solid.’
Indeed, the Daily Mail’s general election poll was the most accurate in the country forecasting Trump’s victory over former Vice President Kamala Harris, beating out 20 less accurate major pollsters, eight of which predicted Trump would lose the popular vote.
The new Daily Mail poll conducted with JL Partners shows the president’s job approval rating at 48 percent, up one percentage point from June and his highest since May.
J.L. Partners/Daily Mail’s final election day poll showing a 50 percent to 47 percent Trump win. The final popular vote tally was Trump at 49.8 percent versus Harris at 48.3 percent.
Johnson says ‘a surge in support among men, Republicans and independent voters’ is buoying the president’s approval rating.
Support for the president among Republicans is up five points since late June and seven points among voters not affiliated with a party, those typically thought of as independents.
Fifty-four percent of men now say they approve of the job Trump is doing, a six-point improvement from June.
Johnson calls this ‘modest uptick’ a ‘subtle but important shift in voter sentiment.’
‘Stable ratings among middle-aged and older voters, coupled with renewed strength among independents, suggest he’s regaining footing in the center ground,’ he adds.
However, there are signs of troubling brewing for the Republican president. Only 41 percent of woman approve of the job that Trump is doing, hovering around lows recorded in April.
The 13-point gender gap, Johnson said, is ‘the widest seen in months.’ This finding, paired with low support for Trump among young voters, could spell trouble.
‘For now, the data points to a candidate with a high floor of support, and just enough movement among swing groups to keep things competitive,’ said Johnson.
‘Trump remains strong with his base but – as you would expect – polarizing elsewhere. Democratic approval has fallen further to just 14 percent (the second lowest of the year), and among younger voters, numbers remain in the low 40s at best.’
Trump’s support among his base remains firm even amid the backlash around the handling of the Epstein files. (Pictured: Epstein and Trump in 1997)
Perhaps the most surprising finding in the Daily Mail poll – conducted three days after the release of the Justice Department investigation into Jeffrey Epstein and files associated with his sex trafficking prosecution – Trump’s standing among his base supporters is firm.
In the week since the Department of Justice confirmed Epstein’s death was a suicide and claimed that they are not in possession of any so-called ‘client list,’ some prominent MAGA figures have questions the administration’s handling the issue.
Trump has now repeatedly dismissed questions about the ‘Epstein files.’ Trump has called swirling theories of an alleged cover-up a ‘hoax’ and supporters who believe the claims ‘weaklings.’
Yet, this survey, shows the MAGA crowd is undeterred.
‘In this data there’s no immediate sign that Trump’s Epstein-related comments have damaged his standing with his base,’ Johnson said.
‘That suggests the base is either unbothered by the issue, unaware of it, or rallying behind him despite the controversy. Perhaps that will change if it rages on, and it’s one we will be watching – but there’s no sign yet.’
However, that support does not apparently extend to all members of the Trump administration.
More than one in five respondents who voted for Trump in the 2024 election say Bondi should resign, while 43 percent of Trump voters back her. Another 36 percent didn’t express an opinion either way.
More than one in five respondents who voted for Trump in the 2024 election, say Attorney General Pam Bondi (pictured) should resign.
Indeed, Bondi fares worse with the general population (37 percent say Bondi should step down and only 26 percent believe she should remain in the job), but that’s a significant loss of support among her likely political allies.
The survey also asked respondents how favorably they view other members of the Trump administration.
First Lady Melania Trump had an approval rating of 41 percent, Secretary of State Marco Rubio earned 36 percent and US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth – who has faced scrutiny in recent months of gaffs, sits at 30 percent.
Billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk – who recently left the administration, stoked public anger over the Epstein files and sparred with Trump over the passage of a recent budget-busting spending bill and – received a 34 percent approval rating.
