How the Proposed Texas Map Could Influence the House Race: Insights from the Politics Desk

Overall, there wouldn’t be a single district in which the presidential contest was decided by single digits in Texas.

If put into effect, the GOP could potentially gain three seats with little contest. Nonetheless, intrigue remains in South Texas, where targeted Democrats Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez could still retain their positions through significant efforts.

Although the largely Hispanic border region has traditionally leaned heavily Democratic, Trump’s significant gains in the area during the previous two elections create a unique dynamic. However, Democrats continue to command most local offices, maintaining a strong presence. It is uncertain if this Trump support will convert into votes for Republican candidates in elections without Trump on the ticket.

On paper, Cuellar has the better chance of surviving. He was re-elected by 5 points last year even as Trump carried his 28th District by 7 points. Under the GOP’s proposed lines, Trump’s margin would tick up to 10 points, a tougher slog for Cuellar but one that his 2024 performance suggests he can handle. Of course, Cuellar faces another form of political danger as well in the form of federal corruption charges. If he isn’t in the mix in 2026, his seat will become vastly harder for Democrats to keep.

As for Gonzalez, he held on to his seat by about 3 points last year, as Trump won the 34th District by 4 points. That Trump margin would swell to 10 points with the new GOP map, making Gonzalez an underdog — especially with Republicans recruiting a strong challenger. But if next year’s midterm environment is favorable to Democrats, Gonzalez would certainly be competitive, especially with Trump’s name absent from the ballot.

Nationally, Texas Republicans’ plan would increase the number of Democrats representing districts that voted for Trump last year to 16. And with Ohio Republicans poised to embark on their own redistricting effort, that number would likely rise further to 18 or 19. These added pick-up opportunities are crucial to the GOP’s chance of holding the House: A net-loss of just three seats would hand control to Democrats.

The latest on the Texas redistricting fight:

• Texas House Speaker Dustin Burrows quickly gaveled the chamber in and out of session today, lacking the minimum number of state lawmakers to move on to regular business after dozens of Democrats fled the state.
• Appearing alongside Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and a group of Texas House Democrats, Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin said that his party is “not rolling over” to Trump and bringing “a knife to a knife fight.”
• Pritzker said he would consider calling a special session to reopen Illinois’ congressional maps, where Democrats already control 14 of 17 seats.
• GOP Sen. John Cornyn is urging the FBI to assist Texas law enforcement agencies in finding or arresting Democratic legislators who left the state.
• Some Republicans representing competitive districts in blue states are speaking out against their party’s push to redraw congressional lines in Texas.

How Trump is reshaping government data

By Shannon Pettypiece

Meteorological data collected by some weather balloons has been halted. Statistics for HIV among transgender people were scrubbed from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s website. And basic public figures, like how many people work for the federal government, have been frozen or delayed for months.

Across the federal government, President Donald Trump has been wielding his influence over data used by researchers, economists and scientists, an effort that was playing out largely behind the scenes until Friday, when he fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The agency collects and publishes economic data, and Trump accused its former chief, Erika McEntarfer, of giving fake employment data last week showing a recent slowdown in the labor market.

“The numbers were rigged. Biden wasn’t doing well, he was doing poorly,” Trump said in an interview on CNBC, referring to the jobs numbers.

Presidents of both political parties often seek to spin government data to their benefit, cherry-picking numbers that put their agendas in the best light possible. But McEntarfer’s firing has drawn criticism from economists, Wall Street investors and even Republicans who are raising wider concerns about the continued reliability of government data once seen as the gold standard.

“We have to look somewhere for objective statistics. When the people providing the statistics are fired, it makes it much harder to make judgments that, you know, the statistics won’t be politicized,” Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., said in an interview. “You can’t really make the numbers different or better by firing the people doing the counting.”

Read more from Shannon →

That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by am Wollner.

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