Consider the hopes of the past: last year, based on existing climate policies, the research firm Rhodium Group predicted a potential 56 percent reduction in US emissions by 2035. However, circumstances have shifted. According to a new Rhodium Group report, today’s scenario forecasts a much slower reduction pace—a 26-35 percent decrease in emissions over the next decade compared to 2005 levels—due to what is described as “the most abrupt shift in energy and climate policy in recent memory” during the first months of the Trump administration.

This slower progress is insufficient to prevent a rise in global temperatures, a situation that is already exacerbating extreme weather and climate-related disasters in the US. The dimmed outlook stems from the obstacles the Trump administration has placed on wind and solar energy advancements, as well as extensive efforts to eliminate federal environmental protections.

There has been a dramatic policy reversal since 2024. Former President Joe Biden aimed for at least a 50 percent cut in US greenhouse gas emissions within this decade as part of the Paris climate agreement. The 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, signed by Biden, was predicted to facilitate this goal with extensive tax incentives for clean energy and electric vehicles, potentially reducing emissions by about 40 percent by 2030. The Biden administration’s Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) also rolled out policies to tighten pollution controls on power plants and transportation.

In contrast, the present EPA no longer seeks to regulate greenhouse gas emissions. In July, the agency proposed revoking a pivotal 2009 determination that gave it authority under the Clean Air Act to regulate emissions jeopardizing public health. Should this rule reversal, facing legal hurdles, be finalized, it could annul all existing vehicular and engine emission regulations in favor of “consumer choice.”

Following substantial campaign contributions from the fossil fuel sector, Trump appointed former oil executive Chris Wright to head the Department of Energy. Recently, Wright criticized the aim to achieve net zero emissions by mid-century, a critical target for preventing further climate deterioration, as a “colossal train wreck” and “monstrous human impoverishment program.” Despite this, the US has demonstrated the possibility of economic growth alongside emissions control, as 2022 emissions were recorded at 17 percent below 2005 levels, according to the EPA.

Rhodium Group’s emissions forecast includes a range of outcomes based on whether Trump’s proposed policies come to fruition, as well as other economic factors, including oil and gas prices and costs for clean energy technologies. Even without subsidies, renewable energy is still cost competitive with gas, Rhodium Group notes. Wind and solar and related energy storage projects make up a staggering 95 percent of new electricity generation capacity queued up to connect to power grids in the US. With electricity demand suddenly on the rise because of data centers, AI, and electric vehicles, utilities are racing to add as much capacity as they can. In short, renewables aren’t going away in this forecast and will continue to cut down US greenhouse gas emissions.

But that’s likely to happen at a slower pace as the Trump administration works to push the scales in favor of more fossil fuels to meet that growing electricity demand. US greenhouse gas emissions have shrunk by an average of 1.1 percent annually since 2005, according to Rhodium Group. In the firm’s most pessimistic scenario, that could fall in half to a pace of just a 0.4 percent reduction each year through 2040.