Ukraine and Russia's intensifying energy war brings gas shortages and economic pain

Almost 900 miles from Ukraine’s borders, a fire erupted at a Russian oil refinery on Saturday.

The fire, attributed to a Ukrainian long-range drone strike as per sources from the country’s security services, marked the third incident at the site in the past month alone.

It was just the latest episode in an intensifying energy war between Ukraine and Russia.

Signs read “No petrol” at a gas station in Yevpatoriya, Crimea, on October 2, 2025.(Yan Dobronosov/Reuters via CNN Newsource)

Friday’s assault was described as “one of the largest concentrated strikes specifically against energy facilities,” by Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko.

“Unfortunately, there is significant damage to the energy infrastructure.”

Russia’s mounting assault on Ukraine’s gas production means Kyiv will have to seek higher imports than previously anticipated.

As winter nears, Ukraine is in talks with its international associates to boost natural gas imports by around 30 percent, stated energy minister Svitlana Grynchuk.

Domestic demand for gas in Ukraine usually spikes sharply from November.

According to Grynchuk, Ukraine has already secured credits totaling €800 million (AU$1.4 billion) from European entities and is considering extending these loans further.

Attacks on energy extract a very high price.

An industry insider suggests that by winter’s end, Ukraine may need over 4 billion cubic meters of gas, which would approximately cost AU$3 billion at today’s market rates.

That’s in addition to equipment to repair facilities that repeatedly come under fire.

Most of those extra imports will come from Europe.

The European Union disclosed last week that its storage facilities were at 83 per cent capacity ahead of peak winter demand.

For now, the price of natural gas remains steady on European markets.

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