Australians anticipating a potential interest rate reduction in November may need to remain patient, as recent inflation statistics have exceeded expectations.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported a 1.3 percent increase in the consumer price index for the September quarter, marking the most significant quarterly surge since March 2023. Meanwhile, the trimmed mean, which is closely monitored by the Reserve Bank of Australia as a key indicator of underlying inflation, showed a 1.0 percent rise.
Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock remarked on Monday that even a 0.9 percent increase in this measure would be considered a significant deviation from expectations.
For the year leading up to September, headline inflation climbed to 3.2 percent, surpassing the RBA’s target range. This marks an increase from 2.1 percent in June and represents the highest inflation rate since June 2024. Concurrently, the trimmed mean rose to 3.0 percent, up from 2.7 percent.
This marks the first quarterly increase in the annual trimmed mean measure since December 2022.
Economists had anticipated the consumer price index to register at 3.0 percent, with core inflation expected to remain steady at 2.7 percent.
9News money editor Effie Zahos said the unexpected surge had ended any chance of a rate cut in November.
“This was the missing piece of the puzzle before the RBA meets next week on Melbourne Cup day,” she said.
“And you can guarantee there’ll be no rate cut. I mean, that’s my opinion. It’d be interesting to see the commentary flowing…
“These are not the numbers we wanted to see. So the chance of a rate cut, now the market is saying just 12 per cent for next Tuesday.”
