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WASHINGTON — Life is looking up for the Democratic Party, notably among the affluent and influential.
A comprehensive new analysis reveals a significant shift in the political landscape, with Democrats now representing over 75% of the wealthiest congressional districts across the nation. This transformation highlights a broader trend where affluent communities have increasingly aligned with Democrats, while working-class individuals have gravitated towards the Republican Party. This shift has resulted in Democrats experiencing advantages beyond mere economic prosperity, including longer life expectancies and reduced risks of death from gun violence or opioid overdoses, when compared to other regions.
The report, titled “Class Dismissed II: The Secession of the Successful,” was crafted by CGCN, a GOP lobbying and public affairs firm. Released exclusively to a major news outlet before its public debut, the report delves into the data reflecting the realignment of voter coalitions, particularly during President Donald Trump’s campaigns. The authors of the report echo sentiments expressed by former Labor Secretary Robert Reich, who, during the Clinton administration, described a phenomenon he referred to as “the secession of the successful”—a trend where the nation’s elite distanced themselves from the broader societal concerns.
“It’s not often we find ourselves in agreement with President Clinton’s former Labor Secretary, Robert Reich. Yet, back in the 1990s, Reich identified an emerging social trend he termed ‘the secession of the successful,'” the CGCN report notes. “By this, he meant the elite withdrawing from the everyday issues facing most people.” This new report builds on CGCN’s previous findings from late 2023, offering fresh insights into this ongoing social shift.
“Our updated census data analysis, following our earlier memo ‘Class Dismissed I,’ confirms Reich’s observations as a solid reality, albeit in ways he might not have imagined,” the report states. “The successful class—defined by income, education, geography, and cultural homogeneity—is increasingly gravitating towards the Democratic Party, moving away from Republicans. This ‘secession’ signifies a move into an insular, elite cultural sphere, detached from the working-class and poorer populations, who face the country’s most severe social challenges. Recent data from CGCN highlights that these social and economic issues are more prevalent in Republican districts than Democratic ones.”
This report is part of a growing body of literature attempting to dissect the challenges facing Democrats, including their perceived detachment from broader society. Another recent analysis, highlighted by journalist Dave Weigel of Semafor, cautions Democrats against further electoral losses and geographical isolation unless they address the extremism tied to their affluent base. While numerous reports have surfaced, this latest offering from CGCN illustrates the increasing wealth and elitism associated with the Democratic Party.
The new CGCN report continues by arguing that this is a “party realignment decades in the making,” and that the two parties look much different than they did even a decade earlier.
“The GOP is no longer dominated by Izod-wearing denizens of the Shaker Heights Country Club, and the Democrats are no longer the party of working-class locals in Youngstown’s Royal Oaks Bar and Grill,” the CGCN authors wrote, pointing specifically to the curious case of former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), who spent his entire decades-long career as an elected Democrat portraying himself as a working-class champion only to get absolutely smoked by now-Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-OH) at the ballot box last year. Now, Brown is trying to run again, this time against newly-appointed GOP Sen. Jon Husted (R-OH) — who was picked to fill the spot vacated by now Vice President JD Vance — but is seriously failing to gain traction with the very working-class voters with whom he used to connect. The authors point to what they say are “earth shattering” changes in endorsements, where labor unions across Ohio are now backing Husted instead of Brown’s flailing comeback bid.
“In short, anyone familiar with his decades-long career would know that unionism is in Brown’s DNA,” the CGCN authors wrote. “But in a sign of the times, his opponent, incumbent Sen. Jon Husted (R-OH), just inked substantial endorsements from Ohio’s industrial labor unions, including the International Union of Operating Engineers (IUOE) Local 18 and 66, ‘giving the incumbent support from affiliated unions in all of Ohio’s 88 counties,’ according to Axios. On top of this, in September, the Northwest Ohio Building Trades Council flipped its support from Brown to Husted. This is, in short, earth shattering.”
The report then quotes a local labor leader explaining why the unions are endorsing the Republican Husted over the Democrat Brown.
“The Mahoning Valley is the backbone of Ohio’s working class,” Jesse DiRenna, business manager for IUOE Local 66, said. “Sen. Jon Husted leads with action not just photo ops. His values align with ours, which is why we support him.”
The next two pages of the 13-page report have some of the most interesting data unearthed by the CGCN analysts, particularly the economic conditions in Democrat versus Republican strongholds in this era versus previous eras. First off, the report analyzes the share of annual gross domestic product (GDP) of the areas that voted for Trump the last three presidential elections versus the areas that voted for Democrat presidential nominees Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, and Kamala Harris.
“Consider that Democrats, in fact, represent far wealthier districts and constituents than the GOP,” the report reads. “For example, over the last three presidential election cycles, Democratic candidates won counties with a higher share of aggregate GDP than Donald Trump.”
Astoundingly, just during Trump’s time atop the Republican Party the past decade, this existing trend has grown far more profound. In 2016, the counties that Trump won nationwide amounted to 36 percent of aggregate GDP and the counties that Clinton won represented 64 percent of aggregate GDP. During the 2020 election, Trump’s counties represented 29 percent of aggregate GDP while Biden’s represented 71 percent. In 2024, Trump counties represented 37 percent of aggregate GDP while Harris-won counties represented 63 percent of aggregate GDP.
It’s even harder core when looking at the wealth among congressional districts and which parties hold seats in the richest parts of America. In fact, the report citing U.S. Census data found that Democrats currently hold more than three quarters — more than 76 percent — of the top 30 wealthiest congressional districts in America.
“According to U.S. Census data, America’s wealthiest districts are overwhelmingly represented by Democrats,” the report reads. “Of the 30 richest congressional districts, only 7 are represented by Republicans, while 23 are represented by Democrats. By contrast, representation among the 30 poorest districts is more evenly split — Democrats represent 18, and Republicans represent 12.”
Many of the most powerful Democrats, like former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), Reps. Jamie Raskin (D-MD), Eric Swalwell (D-CA), Ted Lieu (D-CA), Pramila Jayapal (D-WA), Ro Khanna (D-CA), and Jerry Nadler (D-NY) represent some of the “wealthiest districts” in the nation, and these names are also “some of the most familiar on cable news.”
“The political and moral burden of representing poor and forgotten Americas now lies with the GOP,” the report continues. “Moreover, the stark divide between the everyday experience of one living in a poor congressional district as compared to a wealthy one explains in good measure why the two parties speak different languages.”
Looking at the income data in the 30 wealthiest districts — again, now mostly Democrats — versus the 30 poorest districts, which are much more evenly split, the difference is profound. The median income in the richest districts per the CGCN report is $133,071, more than double the poorest district median income, which is $52,318. Unemployment is significantly worse in the poorer districts too, at 5.89 percent on average versus just 3.93 percent on average in the wealthy districts that Democrats dominate.
Beyond the economic numbers, several social statistics also demonstrate a much higher quality of life for the very rich Democrats in America.
“Opioid deaths are far more common in the poorest areas,” the CGCN report reads. “There are 19.6233 opioid deaths per 100,000 in the wealthiest districts. This number is even higher in the poorest districts. It jumps to 32.466 opioid deaths per 100,000 in the poorest districts. Firearm homicides are also far more common in the poorest districts. There are 13.39 firearm homicides per 100,000 people in the poorest districts. This number is 3.2 per 100,000 for the wealthiest districts. The poorest districts are trailing in high school completion. The average for the top 30 wealthiest districts is 92.93% with the number dropping to 84.66% for the poorest districts. The poorest districts have a lower life expectancy by about five years. The average life expectancy for the top 30 wealthiest districts is 81.333 years. For the poorest districts it falls to 75.82.”
What’s more, Democrats in the House and Senate have become more elitist — and Republicans in both chambers less so — over the last several decades when it comes to education levels.
“In the 93rd Congress (1973-75), 55% of Senate Republicans went to elite universities. In the 117th Congress (2021-2023), that number declined to 34%,” the report reads on a later page. “House Republicans educated from elite universities plummeted from 40% in the 93rd Congress to just 15% in the 117th. In the 117th Congress, over 50% of Democratic Senators had degrees from elite institutions. House Democrats who graduated from Harvard rose from 9% (93rd Congress) to 15% (117th Congress). Democratic senators from Yale University rose from 5% (93rd Congress) to 6% (117th Congress).”
Interestingly, too, the report also found that the vast majority of members of the establishment media are rich, elitist, and white — meaning they have an inherent bias that misses the concerns of working-class Americans, who again are more and more becoming Republicans.
“And whether consciously or not, most reporters strain to understand worlds completely foreign to them,” the CGCN report reads. “Here we mean rural areas and low-income neighborhoods, marred by crime, opioid deaths, and chronic unemployment, with populations who are religious, without college degrees, and overwhelmingly black and Hispanic. Hence, it’s not difficult to see the result: media bias. As conventionally understood, such bias also stems from a well-documented fact — reporters identify far more as Democrats than Republicans. A 2022 study by Syracuse University’s Newhouse School found that 36.3% of journalists identified as Democrats, while only 3.4% identified as Republicans. But in a similar context, the lack of newsroom diversity can also bias coverage.”
