A recent survey has revealed a disturbing trend: a significant number of Americans anticipate the assassination of a major political figure in the near future. Conducted by POLITICO and Public First, the survey indicates that 55% of respondents foresee an increase in political violence. This sentiment comes in the wake of the assassination of Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk and multiple attempts on former President Donald Trump’s life, leaving both political parties on edge.

Over the past decade, politically-motivated violence has become increasingly prevalent in the United States. Notable examples include the violent activities of the Antifa movement and the deadly Capitol riot on January 6. As a result, a substantial portion of Americans now expect another political assassination attempt to occur within the next five years. Alarmingly, 24% of those surveyed believe that political violence is not always unjustified.

The survey also highlighted a generational divide in attitudes toward political violence, with one in three Americans under the age of 45 considering it justifiable in certain circumstances. Despite these troubling perspectives, the reality for those attempting such acts is grim. Thomas Matthew Crooks, who made an assassination attempt on Trump, was quickly neutralized by a Secret Service sniper after narrowly missing Trump with an AR-15. Similarly, Ryan Routh, involved in a subsequent attempt on Trump’s life, has been convicted on five federal charges and is likely to spend the rest of his life behind bars.

Tyler Robinson, the 22-year-old who allegedly shot Charlie Kirk, is currently in a Salt Lake City prison and faces the death penalty. Robert Pape, a professor at the University of Chicago who studies political violence, told POLITICO that the US is in the throes of a new wave of political violence. ‘We’re not on the brink of it, we’re firmly in the grip of it,’ Pape shared. 

‘What’s happening is public support for political violence is growing in the mainstream, it’s not a fringe thing, and the more it grows, the more it seems acceptable to volatile people,’ he added. The political violence isn’t siloed to the national conversation either. In June, ex-Minnesota House Speaker Melissa Hortman and her husband were assassinated in their home.

Governor Tim Walz later called the hit ‘politically motivated,’ and the man accused of killing the couple has been indicted on federal murder charges. Similarly, a man firebombed the Pennsylvania Governor’s mansion in April, expecting to harm Josh Shapiro . Members of Congress have also expressed their concerns about rising political violence.

House Speaker Mike Johnson has pushed measures to provide members with additional cash for security measures, like home security camera installation. Republican and Democratic lawmakers frequently quip about the death threats they receive. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez revealed in September that she canceled a campaign event in the wake of Kirk’s assassination, citing, in part, safety concerns.