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Friday’s Mega Millions draw left players empty-handed as no ticket managed to hit the jackpot by matching all six numbers. As a result, the prize has now climbed to a staggering $900 million.
The anticipation builds for the next draw set for Tuesday night. However, it’s important for potential winners to remember that taxes will take a substantial portion of the winnings, and opting for a lump-sum payout will significantly reduce the advertised jackpot amount.
Despite these deductions, the jackpot remains a life-altering sum. For the average American, far removed from the wealth of Hollywood elites and Wall Street magnates, such a windfall would be transformative.
As hopefuls nationwide indulge in dreams of sudden wealth, experts in mathematics and lottery officials, including those from both Mega Millions and Powerball, have shared insights with the Daily Mail regarding the odds of winning these colossal jackpots.
According to these experts, clinching the grand prize is akin to finding a needle in a haystack. The odds of matching all five white balls and the gold Mega Ball are an astronomical one in 302.6 million, while Powerball offers slightly better odds at one in 292.2 million.
Moreover, winners should be prepared to pocket only about a quarter of the advertised jackpot after accounting for interest rates, Treasury bonds, and various state and local taxes.
Still, luck has struck before on eye-watering cash prizes. In August 2023, a Mega Millions winner claimed the game’s largest $1.6billion jackpot, and in September, two Powerball players shared a $1.8billion kitty.
Here’s what the experts told the Daily Mail about your chances — and the winning habits that have helped some players turn luck into life-changing fortune.
The top prize for the Mega Millions jackpot has risen to $900million
Sarah Day, a Powerball winner in 2023, celebrates her win on a television set with TV host Ryan Seacrest
A winner won’t cash in $900million
If lottery officials and one player roll matching numbers, the ticket-holder will likely take home hundreds of millions of dollars less than the giant sum lighting up billboards and gas stations nationwide.
Winners must choose between 30 annual payments or a one-time cash option. Almost all take the lump sum, which for this drawing would be just over $415million.
This is because the jackpot advertised isn’t the cash the lottery has on hand to pay a winner.
Rather, it represents what the prize would be if the pool were invested in Treasury bonds over 30 years — which is why higher interest rates seen over the past two years inflate the headline amount.
For winners taking the lump sum, this means they are being penalized more than at any point in the last two decades.
Uncle Sam and state officials want a share too. After the federal government’s 37 percent cut, the take-home from a lump-sum payout would fall to around $261million. State governments take different tax amounts too. In New York, for example, the take-home would fall again to around $234million.
Mathematician’s secret strategy
Tim Chartier, a professor of mathematics and computer science at Davidson College, doesn’t bother with the Powerball or Mega Millions games. The odds are just too extreme, he says.
‘Imagine I’m going to pick one second in the last 9.2 years,’ he told the Daily Mail. ‘Now, tell me which second I picked. That’s the same odds to win.’
In September, the Powerball’s jackpot jumped to $1.7billion, the sixth time the game had surged into the 10-figure territory – two winners took home the top prize
Edwin Castro, the winner of a $2billion Powerball kitty in 2023, was able to take home more cash because he was in California
Winners of the jackpot games take home a life-changing sum of cash. Edwin Castro, the record-breaking Powerball prize winner and former mechanic, has turned his wealth into a stable of hot rods, including multiple classic Porsches
Still, Chartier says there are a few ways to slightly improve your chances — and make sure you don’t end up splitting the jackpot.
Buying 100 tickets, for instance, technically boosts the likelihood of winning. But even then, he calls the odds ‘improbable.’
‘If I pick one second in the last 9.2 years, having 100 guesses helps,’ he said.
For those who do win, he recommends choosing numbers randomly rather than using common picks.
The odds are still the same — but, ‘if you win, not having to share the winnings is much more likely if you have entirely random numbers.’
Dawn Nettles, a 30-year veteran of the lottery industry, who has run the Lotto Report — a site that monitors nationwide lottery sales and operations with a trove of data — agrees.
Her advice: always fill out your own ticket — rather than letting a computer decide your numbers. That could mean birthdays, phone numbers or random picks. ‘Sit down and fill out a play slip,’ she told the Daily Mail.
Officials for the lottery dispute that players shouldn’t play on their computers.
Edwin Castro, winner of the record-breaking $2billion Powerball Jackpot, bought a mansion in Los Angeles
‘Players can choose their own numbers or have their numbers randomly generated for them by a computer,’ a Powerball official told the Daily Mail.
‘Historically, there have been Powerball jackpots that have been won by more than one ticket. The last time this occurred was on January 5, 2022, when two tickets in New York and Wisconsin split a $632.6 million Powerball jackpot.’
Best states for lottery winners
Some states offer more for national lottery winners.
For example, where you live matters for taxes. Winners in California, Florida, New Hampshire, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Washington, and Wyoming don’t pay state taxes on jackpot winnings.
For both games, some states are luckier than others.
Mega Millions players in New York State have been the luckiest, bringing home the top prize 43 times.
California (35), New Jersey (24), Ohio (20), and Michigan (18) close out the top five luckiest states for the game.
For Powerball, Indiana leads the pack with 39 jackpots, followed by Missouri (31), Minnesota (22), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (19), and Kentucky (19).
Where you live also impacts how — and if — players can participate in the sweepstakes.
Residents who don’t want to make a run to the gas station can buy tickets online in nine states: North Dakota, Illinois, Kentucky, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Georgia, and New Hampshire.
Meanwhile, five states don’t participate in the games at all. Those are Alabama, Alaska, Hawaii, Nevada, and Utah.
Luckiest (and unluckiest) numbers
These are the least and most popular Mega Millions selections in the last 100 rounds of Mega Ball rolls
Some balls come up far more often than others.
For Mega Millions, officials have rolled the 18 First Five ball 10 times in the past 100 rounds, while number 53 hasn’t rolled once.
The number one, two, 19, and 24 balls have been popular for Mega Ball drawings, rolling four times each, while numbers four, six, and 16 haven’t been picked at all.
Over the last 100 Powerball drawings, the white ball 23 has been pulled 17 times, most recently on Wednesday. That’s four more appearances than the second-place number, 52, which has shown up 13 times.
The white ball 26 has been the opposite of lucky, showing up just once in the last 100 drawings and is now in a 129-day dry spell.
The red Powerball numbers have their own streaks, but the struggles persist for poor number 26.
Powerball officials haven’t rolled a red 26 or 16 in the past 100 draws.
On the flip side, red 25 has been drawn 10 times in the same span.
In the last 100 Powerball draws, these are the most and least popular selections
Darrell Lester, a former senior vice president of a sweepstakes company, said winners should always take their cash upfront
Best advice for players and winners
Experts stress that jackpots should be treated as entertainment, not a retirement plan.
‘The biggest thing is to treat it as entertainment,’ Jared James, the founder of LottoEdge said. ‘When the jackpot gets big like this, some people shift that mindset and think ‘Oh, this is life-changing money.
‘I would say it’s more money than most people need. Don’t chase this Powerball thinking, “Hey, this is my retirement plan.” Play it for fun, because you’re most likely not going to win.’
If you do defy the odds, the best advice is simple: take the cash up front.
‘I would never, ever, ever take a 30-year payout,’ Darrell Lester, the former senior vice president of Publishers Clearing House, the iconic sweepstakes subscription, said.
Years after his departure, Lester’s former employer declared bankruptcy, leaving winners who chose long-term payouts without their cash.
‘I feel sad for all of them,’ Lester said about the people left behind by his old company. But it left him with stronger advice.
‘If you win, take the lump sum. If a state or company goes bankrupt, they don’t have to pay the winnings.’
Paul and Sue Rosenau were able to start a charity after winning the jackpot
The family was dedicated to researching Krabbe disease after their granddaughter passed away from the rare disease at the age of two
Winnings can turn messy, too
Jackpot winners often struggle with their sudden windfalls.
In 2008, Paul and Sue Rosenau of Minnesota won $180 million and walked away with $59.6 million after taxes.
They quit work and started a foundation for Krabbe disease research after losing their granddaughter to the rare disorder.
But their wealth manager funneled their winnings into variable annuities — investments that earned him millions in commissions while costing the foundation money.
The assets lost money. The Wall Street Journal estimates the Rosenaus would have made between $12 million $25 million with more conventional investing.
The family eventually sued, but not before Sue passed away and the manager died by suicide.
Other winners, like the Powerball’s only $2 billion champion, Edwin Castro, have had other tragedies befallen.
Castro lost his $3.8 million Malibu mansion in the devastating wildfires that ripped across Los Angeles earlier this year.
And Charlie Saephan, who won $1.3 billion in April 2024, has been battling cancer.