In early October, the University of Miami’s Hurricanes found themselves in a rare position, being ranked second in the Associated Press poll—an achievement they’ve managed only three times in the last 22 years. However, their performance since then hasn’t lived up to the early promise, with two losses marked by familiar errors under coach Mario Cristobal’s guidance.

Despite these setbacks, the Hurricanes held the No. 15 spot in the latest College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings as of Tuesday night, leading the pack among Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) teams. The ACC featured four other ranked teams: Georgia Tech at No. 16, Virginia at No. 19, Louisville at No. 20, and Pittsburgh at No. 22.

Miami climbed from No. 18 in the initial CFP rankings released on November 4, where they were fourth among ACC teams. The rankings shifted as Virginia and Louisville slipped after weekend losses, while Georgia Tech, despite a bye week, remained behind Miami. The Hurricanes’ recent 38-10 victory over Syracuse helped bolster their standing.

However, Miami faces a challenge within the ACC, sitting seventh with a 3-2 conference record. Georgia Tech, Virginia, Pittsburgh, and SMU lead the conference with 5-1 records, trailed by Duke at 4-1 and Louisville at 4-2.

Even if the Hurricanes win their remaining three ACC games against North Carolina State, Virginia Tech, and Pittsburgh, they might not secure a spot in the conference championship. Missing out on the ACC title game would mean Miami could not automatically qualify for the CFP, which includes the top five conference champions in its 12-team lineup.

As the ACC race heats up, various outcomes are possible. This Saturday, Duke faces Virginia, ensuring one team will suffer a second conference loss. The following week, Georgia Tech takes on Pitt, promising another contender with two league defeats. Key non-conference matchups also loom, with Pitt hosting No. 9 Notre Dame this Saturday and Georgia Tech squaring off against No. 5 Georgia on November 28 at Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

As of now, there are numerous scenarios for how the ACC race will unfold. This Saturday, Duke hosts Virginia, so one of those teams will end up having two conference losses. The following week, Georgia Tech hosts Pitt, meaning that will end with another team with two league losses. There are other major non-conference games, as well, including Pitt hosting No. 9 Notre Dame on Saturday and Georgia Tech playing No. 5 Georgia on Nov. 28 (the day after Thanksgiving) at Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

For the ACC, the worst scenario would be if Duke ends up winning the conference championship game because the Blue Devils would have at least four losses, including to Connecticut. If that occurred, Duke may not be among the five highest-ranked conference champions, meaning the ACC wouldn’t get an automatic berth and might not send any teams to the CFP.

Of course, there’s also a scenario where Miami finishes 10-2, doesn’t make the ACC championship game but still gets an at-large berth in the CFP. The Hurricanes opened the season with a 27-24 victory over Notre Dame, which should be in the playoff field if it wins its remaining games. That victory would be a boon for Miami, as would a league win over Pitt and a non-conference victory over South Florida, which is currently No. 24 in the CFP rankings and the highest-ranked team from outside the Power 4 leagues of the ACC, Southeastern Conference, Big Ten and Big 12.

A year ago, Miami was fourth in the first CFP rankings and sixth as of late November, but the Hurricanes lost their regular season finale at Syracuse and missed the playoffs. This year, the program needs to win its remaining games to have a shot at the CFP. Even then, that may not be enough, although there are bound to be upsets in the final three weeks of the regular season, which could put a 10-2 Miami team in position for the playoffs even without competing in the ACC title game.