Good morning. Nigel Farage, the leader of Reform UK, benefits from a public perception that the Conservative Party has left behind a significant mess, and Labour is struggling to resolve it. People are reluctant to return control to the Conservatives, who they feel caused the chaos, yet they are also dissatisfied with Labour’s handling of the situation. This dissatisfaction is steering many toward more radical choices, with Reform UK on one end and the Green Party on the other.

However, Farage faces two main challenges. Firstly, his divisive nature could potentially bring together the left and center factions against him. Secondly, there is a noticeable split on the right. My colleagues have uncovered significant insights into this issue, which I’ll delve into further in today’s discussion.

Deal or no deal

According to revelations by Anna Gross and Julie Steinberg, Farage has informed his donors that he anticipates Reform UK to form an alliance with the Conservatives.

For those who have followed this topic closely, my skepticism about a possible alliance between Reform and the Conservatives before the next general election has been evident. While Reform UK has shown stronger polling figures and consistent performance in recent elections during this parliamentary term, the Conservatives still hold a greater number of MPs. Any potential agreement would likely result in significant concessions from the Conservative side, potentially displacing numerous Tory MPs from desirable positions in favor of Reform candidates.

Negotiations in 1983 between the Liberals and the Social Democratic party were fraught, nearly splitting the alliance between the two. And that involved two parties that essentially had all the electoral map to divvy up among themselves. The Conservatives, with 119 seats to Reform’s five, would have to accept that they were unlikely to have first dibs on any seat they do not currently hold.

For that reason, I had doubted that there would be a deal. But Kemi Badenoch’s leadership has made the Tory party such a marginal bit-part player that I am no longer so sure.

Under her, the Tories have conceded the mantle of “lever you pull to get rid of the leftwing party” and are well on their way to conceding “sanest option in the rightwing bloc”. That may mean the party’s position is sufficiently bad by the time of a general election that it is desperate enough to become the junior partner to Farage (which is the only way I can see a deal being agreed). But the big picture is that talk of a pact between the two is no longer far-fetched, and there is no doubt that Farage would be the senior partner.

Now try this

I saw Blue Moon at the cinema. It’s a beautiful and moving film about the loss of one’s powers. I’ve been looking forward to this for some time — Richard Linklater is one of my favourite filmmakers — and it did not disappoint. I think it’s Ethan Hawke’s performance of his career. Jonathan Romney’s review is here if you want a second opinion.

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