Reform seems to have reached the zenith of its appeal among voters, according to a prominent pollster, amid renewed calls for right-leaning parties to unify their efforts.
Recent trends indicate a decline in support for Nigel Farage’s party, with approximately 29 percent of the electorate expressing their intention to back Reform in the upcoming election. This marks a decrease from the party’s previous high of 32 percent.
Conversely, the Conservative Party appears to be experiencing a modest resurgence, with about 19 percent of voters willing to lend their support, despite a series of notable defections to Reform.
Sir John Curtice, a respected pollster, has suggested that Reform may have reached its ceiling at 32 percent, describing its voter base as a “very, very niche market.” He predicts that both parties might need to consider some form of “accommodation” as the election approaches.
In the interim, Curtice anticipates that both parties will continue to compete for voters, each striving to establish itself as the leading force on the right.
However, Nigel Farage has dismissed Curtice’s analysis, rejecting both the notion that Reform has peaked and the idea of a potential alliance.
He added there would be ‘no deal with dishonest people that don’t deserve our trust’ and Reform believes it is ‘still gaining solid support’.
The Tories have also ruled out any dealing.
Kemi Badenoch, pictured earlier this month, has ‘been very clear there will never be a pact under her leadership’
Nigel Farage, pictured on Monday, said there would be ‘no deal with dishonest people that don’t deserve our trust’ and Reform believes it is ‘still gaining solid support’
Leading pollster Sir John Curtice has said he imagines 32 per cent is ‘the height of what Reform can achieve’ because its vote is a ‘very, very niche market’ (file photo)
Speaking to GB News, Sir John said: ‘The truth is that the two parties are going to be fighting it out for a similar section of the electorate, at least for the next two years.
‘Then they’re going to have to evaluate, by around 2027 or 2028, whether or not one or other of them has succeeded in winning this battle on the right, or whether indeed it’s in their respective interest to come to an accommodation.’
With Brexit ‘not as popular as it once was’, Sir John added that 30 to 32 per cent would be ‘the limit’ to the support Mr Farage can expect, because ‘very, very few people who are in favour of being inside the European Union are willing to vote for Reform’.
The pollster’s comments come amid a renewed chorus to unite the right.
Former Conservative MP Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg wrote in Thursday’s Daily Mail: ‘The combination of Reform and the Tories would take over 40 per cent of the vote,’ meaning a united centre-right ‘could win a thumping majority, especially against a splintered Left’ at the next general election.
He wrote: ‘This is tremendously exciting. The country is in a terrible state, it is appallingly governed, but there is a huge opportunity for success just a few years away if only we could be sensible.’
But, just days after Robert Jenrick defected to Reform, Sir Jacob pointedly called for duty to ‘override personal ambition’ – which he noted as ‘the biggest obstacle to a united Right in Britain today’.
Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg, pictured in July last year, said a united centre-right ‘could win a thumping majority, especially against a splintered Left’ at the next general election
One Conservative MP told the Daily Mail the Conservatives and Reform are ‘part of the same family’, and ‘it must be country before party every time’.
‘That’s why what Robert’s done is so unhelpful, it makes coming back together in the national interest that much more difficult,’ they said.
Speaking at the Davos economic forum, former Tory chancellor George Osborne also warned the parties of ‘cannibalising each other’s vote’, meaning neither is able to win at the next general election.
However, Kemi Badenoch has poured water on suggestions the party must change direction, telling Conservative MPs at a meeting on Wednesday: ‘We are the party of the right and we will always be a party of the right.’
A spokesman for the Leader of the Opposition said: ‘Kemi has been very clear there will never be a pact under her leadership. The Conservative Party doesn’t want to do a deal with a party that wants more government spending and more welfare.
‘Kemi is returning the Conservative Party to core principles, with a strong team and clear plans for the country. Reform are a one-man-band with no vision for Britain.’
