AFC TITLE GAME: PATRIOTS at BRONCOS
3 p.m., Patriots favored by 5, over/under set at 42 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The betting line has shifted significantly due to the quarterback change for the Broncos. Initially, with Bo Nix, Denver was favored by 1 ½ points, but with Jarrett Stidham stepping in, there’s been a 6 ½-point swing. While Nix had an impressive showing before his injury against the Bills, his performances have been inconsistent this season, often relying on Denver’s defense to secure victories. The pressing question is whether Stidham can match even Nix’s less stellar outings. Sean Payton, known for his ability to prepare backup quarterbacks, notably with Teddy Bridgewater in New Orleans, might craft a game plan that leverages Stidham’s strengths. However, Stidham hasn’t seen game action in three years, posing a challenge for Mike Vrabel in strategizing against him.
The presence of J.K. Dobbins could be crucial. Post his Week 11 injury, Denver’s running game has struggled, and without Dobbins, Stidham might shoulder more responsibility. Fortunately for the Broncos, Dobbins has been practicing and is expected to play, potentially boosting their offensive dynamics.
Defensively, the Broncos have often been seen as good but not exceptional, especially when facing elite quarterbacks like Jordan Love, Trevor Lawrence, and Josh Allen. Now, they face MVP contender Drake Maye, who has shown vulnerabilities in playoff scenarios, especially with ball security. The Broncos led the league in sacks this season, making it imperative that Maye protects the football. Given Denver’s man coverage style, Maye might find opportunities to exploit gaps with his athleticism and rushing ability. Stefon Diggs, a standout against man coverage, will face off against All-Pro Patrick Surtain II. Maye’s ability to distribute the ball to a robust receiving lineup adds layers to the Patriots’ offensive strategy. While the Patriots are expected to win, the Broncos present a compelling value bet, posing a quandary for bettors. With both teams boasting top-tier defenses, betting on the total score going under might be wise.
NFC TITLE GAME: RAMS at SEAHAWKS
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Lean towards the Broncos and the under.
6:30 p.m., Seahawks favored by 2 ½, over/under set at 48
Without a doubt, the Rams have been Sam Darnold’s kryptonite, mainly because they can get quick pressure without blitzing. If this ends up totally on his shoulders, the Rams win. He folded against them in last year’s playoffs and threw six interceptions against them in the two games this year, greatly contributing to all those Rams points through gifted field position. The L.A. defense, however, hasn’t been dominating the point of attack. Zach Charbonnet is done but Seattle should be able rely on the other side of its two-headed in Kenneth Walker III and control the clock from its two-tight end formations. And then there’s this: since the 1970 merger, home teams are 15-5 straight up in conference championship games between division rivals. The perception is that this will be a high-scoring game, just as the Thursday night game was. However, if you’re the Seahawks, you don’t want Darold trying to match points with Stafford. You are going to want to control the game on the ground and with your defense.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Seahawks and the under.
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WEEK’S BEST BET: Seahawks
LAST WEEK: 2-2, 1-3 over/under
OVERALL PLAYOFFS: 3-7, 6-4 over/under
BEST BETS: 1-1
