Greg Rogers, a former FBI agent now retired, has formed a clear perspective on the troubling case of Savannah Guthrie’s mother’s kidnapping. The abduction of 84-year-old Nancy Guthrie was executed with a degree of skill that suggests it was no ordinary crime.

While law enforcement has faced criticism for their handling of the case—such as the grounding of a crucial search plane during the early hours and the premature release and re-entry into the crime scene—these errors, according to Rogers, only serve to mask the true nature of the crime. He suspects the work of expert kidnappers, likely part of a well-organized criminal syndicate, who meticulously planned the abduction.

Rogers’s suspicions were further confirmed when he reviewed unsettling footage of Nancy’s home located in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, Arizona. The scene, marked by a blood-splattered front porch, was undoubtedly alarming, yet it was the absence of a doorbell camera that caught Rogers’s expert eye as the most significant clue. This missing element suggested a level of planning and execution that pointed to seasoned professionals.

But those failures, he believes, only obscure what was already evident: the job itself was carried out by expert kidnappers who had planned the abduction for some time – likely a sophisticated criminal organization.

It was obvious to Rogers from the moment he saw the chilling footage of the blood-spattered front porch of Nancy’s home in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, Arizona.

Much has been made of that blood found at the scene – disturbing, yes – but to Rogers, the most telling detail? The missing doorbell camera.

Not only had it been removed, it had been deliberately disconnected from the software that operates it.

Unlike simply smashing or tearing out a camera, disconnecting it digitally requires familiarity with how home surveillance systems work, how data is stored, and how to disable recording without triggering obvious alarms.

Greg Rogers served as a FBI agent for 30 years in Texas, New Mexico and Utah. He retired in 2017

‘To know how to disable one without force, that’s sophisticated,’ the FBI veteran of 30 years said.

‘It’s very likely that these guys were pros, and this was a job that was pulled off almost without any mistake.’

Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos confirmed the cameras at the property had not been damaged or broken.

Rogers, who investigated violent crimes and embedded himself with organized criminal organizations, explained that an amateur criminal might have worn a mask or smashed the cameras with blunt force.

‘This was very well done,’ Rogers said, adding that whoever targeted Nancy neutralized the system quietly and cleanly.

Rogers also noted how seamlessly the plan unfolded – so efficiently, in fact, that authorities still do not have a publicly named suspect six days into their manhunt.

And the little information that has emerged since Nancy was reported missing at noon on Sunday has only reinforced his belief that this was the work of a professional criminal outfit.

On Thursday, the Pima County Sheriff’s Office, for the first time, laid out a timeline of the night Guthrie vanished.

Nancy Guthrie, the mother of Today Show host Savannah Guthrie, vanished from her $1 million Tucson, Arizona home over the weekend

She was last seen Saturday night, when family dropped her back at her $1 million property after dinner at the nearby house her daughter Annie Guthrie shares with husband Tommaso Cioni, authorities say.

At 1.47am Sunday, the doorbell camera disconnected from the recording system.

At 2.12am, movement from a person was detected by the surveillance device — but no video exists due to the disconnection.

To Rogers, the sequence reveals extensive pre-planning – particularly that the kidnappers had been at Nancy’s house before.

‘There’s all sorts of things that a professional group would do,’ he explained.

‘I can almost assure you that they’ve been in and around the house before they hit.

‘With an 84-year-old woman, you might have convinced her that you were a maintenance person and come up in a van and walked around.

‘I’m very comfortable saying that, that this is the not the first time those folks were at that house.’

At 2.28am, Nancy’s pacemaker disconnected from her iPhone, which was left inside the home.

Investigators later confirmed that blood belonging to the TV host’s mother was found on the front porch.

‘These are not amateurs. That’s a little concerning. They did a lot of planning for this. They’re in charge. They have the cards,’ Rogers

But, in what might come as a relief for the family, Rogers believes the professionalism of the crime may mean Nancy is still alive.

The doorbell camera at Nancy Guthrie’s home was disconnected at 1.47am Sunday, which NBC National Law Enforcement & Intelligence Correspondent Tom Winter says is a ‘critical moment’ in her case

‘The motivation for this is very likely ransom. She’s the easy member of the family to get to. If there’s any upside to it, it’s that she’s still alive. There’s no benefit to killing her,’ he said.

Savannah Guthrie is a star presenter on NBC’s Today show and is estimated to be worth around $40 million.

That assessment gained weight Thursday after the FBI confirmed it is taking seriously a ransom request that was made following Nancy’ss disappearance. 

Rogers also believes it is possible Nancy Guthrie remains in Arizona – or somewhere nearby.

‘It’s easy to set up sort of a safe house. I think they’ve moved her somewhere else — couple hours of the road to Phoenix. 

‘They wouldn’t have her in a hotel. They would have her in a house that’s set up just for this.’

Such locations, he explained, are typically quiet residential properties controlled by intermediaries, chosen specifically to avoid attention, digital footprints or routine staff.

It remains unclear which type of criminal organization could be behind the abduction.

Rogers said it was unlikely to be a major drug cartel, noting that such groups typically avoid drawing intense US law-enforcement attention unless the kidnapping involves rivals, informants or associates.

Human smuggling and migrant extortion networks are known to operate in southern Arizona but usually target migrants and their families.