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By JON GAMBRELL
The prospect of Saudi Arabia developing domestic uranium enrichment capabilities under a budding nuclear agreement with the United States is raising eyebrows around the globe. This possibility, outlined in congressional documents and noted by an arms control organization, comes at a time when geopolitical tensions remain high between the U.S. and Iran over nuclear capabilities.
Both former President Donald Trump and current President Joe Biden have pursued nuclear agreements with Saudi Arabia, aiming to share American nuclear technology with the kingdom. However, experts in nonproliferation express concerns that allowing Saudi Arabia to operate enrichment centrifuges could pave the way for a potential weapons program. This worry is fueled by the kingdom’s Crown Prince, who has previously hinted that he might consider a nuclear arsenal if Iran were to acquire one.
The backdrop to this development includes a mutual defense pact signed last year between Saudi Arabia and nuclear-capable Pakistan. This agreement followed an Israeli military action in Qatar that targeted Hamas leaders. Pakistan’s defense minister subsequently made a statement suggesting that his country’s nuclear program could be extended to Saudi Arabia if necessary, a move interpreted as a signal to Israel, often regarded as the Middle East’s sole nuclear state.
Kelsey Davenport, who leads nonproliferation policy at the Arms Control Association in Washington, highlighted the dual nature of nuclear cooperation. While it can foster adherence to nonproliferation norms and transparency, she cautioned that the specific terms are crucial. Davenport’s commentary underscores the potential oversight in assessing the proliferation risks associated with the proposed U.S.-Saudi nuclear cooperation, as well as the potential precedent it could establish.
The documents raise “concerns that the Trump administration has not carefully considered the proliferation risks posed by its proposed nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia or the precedent this agreement may set.”
Saudi Arabia did not immediately respond to questions Friday from The Associated Press
Congressional report outlines possible deal
The congressional document, also seen by the AP, shows the Trump administration aims to reach 20 nuclear business deals with nations around the world, including Saudi Arabia. The deal with Saudi Arabia could be worth billions of dollars, it adds.
The document contends that reaching a deal with the kingdom “will advance the national security interests of the United States, breaking with the failed policies of inaction and indecision that our competitors have capitalized on to disadvantage American industry and diminish the United States standing globally in this critical sector.” China, France, Russia and South Korea are among the leading nations that sell nuclear power plant technology abroad.
The draft deal would see America and Saudi Arabia enter safeguard deals with the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog. That would include oversight of the “most proliferation-sensitive areas of potential nuclear cooperation,” it added. It listed enrichment, fuel fabrication and reprocessing as potential areas.
The IAEA, based in Vienna, did not immediately respond to questions. Saudi Arabia is a member state to the IAEA, which promotes peaceful nuclear work but also inspects nations to ensure they don’t have clandestine atomic weapons programs.
“This suggests that once the bilateral safeguards agreement is in place, it will open the door for Saudi Arabia to acquire uranium enrichment technology or capabilities — possibly even from the United States,” Davenport wrote. “Even with restrictions and limits, it seems likely that Saudi Arabia will have a path to some type of uranium enrichment or access to knowledge about enrichment.”
Enrichment isn’t an automatic path to a nuclear weapon — a nation also must master other steps including the use of synchronized high explosives, for instance. But it does open the door to weaponization, which has fueled the concerns of the West over Iran’s program.
The United Arab Emirates, a neighbor to Saudi Arabia, signed what is referred to as a “123 agreement” with the U.S. to build its Barakah nuclear power plant with South Korean assistance. But the UAE did so without seeking enrichment, something nonproliferation experts have held up as the “gold standard” for nations wanting atomic power.
Saudi-US proposal comes amid Iran tensions
The push for a Saudi-U.S. deal comes as Trump threatens military action against Iran if it doesn’t reach a deal over its nuclear program. The Trump military push follows nationwide protests in Iran that saw its theocratic government launch a bloody crackdown on dissent that killed thousands and saw tens of thousands more reportedly detained.
In Iran’s case, it long has insisted its nuclear enrichment program is peaceful. However, the West and the IAEA say Iran had an organized military nuclear program up until 2003. Tehran also had been enriching uranium up to 60% purity, a short, technical step from weapons-grade levels of 90% — making it the only country in the world to do so without a weapons program.
Iranian diplomats long have pointed to 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s comments as a binding fatwa, or religious edict, that Iran won’t build an atomic bomb. However, Iranian officials increasingly have made the threat they could seek the bomb as tensions have risen with the U.S.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom’s day-to-day ruler, has said if Iran obtains the bomb, “we will have to get one.”
The Associated Press receives support for nuclear security coverage from the Carnegie Corporation of New York and Outrider Foundation. The AP is solely responsible for all content.
