The anticipation for the Triple Crown season heats up as the 2026 Kentucky Derby is set to commence on Saturday, May 2, at 6:57 p.m. ET, taking place at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Since Justify’s remarkable win in 2018, the Triple Crown has eluded contenders, yet this year’s lineup includes promising candidates who might capture the title. Leading the pack in the current Kentucky Derby 2026 odds is Renegade, favored at 4-1. For those placing wagers, there’s an exclusive offer from TwinSpires. By using the promo code CBSSPORTS, bettors can access up to $400 in bonus bets, doubling the standard offer.
Some bettors may be drawn to Further Ado at 6-1 or Chief Wallabee at 8-1, as their teams boast previous Derby triumphs, unlike Renegade’s. Additionally, Renegade’s starting position at the No. 1 inside post could pose challenges despite the favorable track conditions expected on Saturday. Before making any 2026 Kentucky Derby selections, insights from racing expert Michelle Yu could prove invaluable.
Yu has a track record of astute predictions, including her 2021 call of Medina Spirit’s victory at 12-1 odds in a highly competitive Derby. In the Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 5 back in 2023, she recommended betting on All Other 3-Year-Olds, which paid off with Rich Strike’s win at 18-1. Her successful predictions continued in 2025, accurately foreseeing Citizen Bull’s triumph at the Robert B. Lewis Stakes and several other key victories throughout the season. Her expertise landed notable wins, such as the exacta in the Kentucky Derby and the Fierceness-Journalism exacta in the Pacific Classic. She also correctly called the trifecta in the 2026 Arkansas Derby. Followers of her betting advice on platforms like FanDuel Racing, TwinSpires, and 1/ST BET have seen significant returns.
With the 2026 Kentucky Derby post positions confirmed and odds available, Yu is ready to reveal her latest picks and predictions at SportsLine. Check out SportsLine to discover her insights.
In a surprising twist, Yu is advising against backing Commandment, who stands at 6-1. Despite Commandment’s recent success, including a Florida Derby victory, his performance raised concerns. Yu notes, “The Florida Derby winner has been impressive, with four consecutive wins under trainer Brad Cox, yet his shrinking win margins as race distances increase are worrisome.” The Kentucky Derby’s extended length compared to the Florida Derby might expose Commandment’s tendency to weaken in the final stretch.
Top 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions
One surprise: Yu is fading Commandment, despite his status as one of the favorites at 6-1. Even though Commandment won the Florida Derby, his finish at the race was concerning. “The Florida Derby winner has been on a tear lately, racking up four straight wins for trainer Brad Cox … I don’t like that his win margins have diminished as the races have gotten longer,” Yu says. “He was very game in his Florida Derby score though.” The Kentucky Derby is longer than the Florida Derby, so Commandment’s potential fade late will be more problematic.
Struggling to close is certainly an issue if the Derby field is tight but Commandment also has a jockey that has failed to achieve any sort of success in the Kentucky Derby with Luis Saez. Saez has won two of the last four Kentucky Oaks races heading into 2026 but has not finished first or second in 12 Derby starts. He’s unlikely to get the best out of Commandment. See which other 2026 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.
Another curveball: Yu is high on Chief Wallabee at 8-1. The Bill Mott-trained colt hasn’t won since breaking his maiden in January of this year, but he’s been right there in the Fountain of Youth Stakes and the Florida Derby, finishing a close second and third, respectively, in those races.
“The Bill Mott bandwagon has been strong with this lightly raced son of Constitution, and he has become the wiseguy horse,” Yu told SportsLine. “An excellent drill over the strip has bettors foaming as he adds blinkers, and of course his connections can get it done.” See which other horses to back at SportsLine, and you can sign up for FanDuel Racing for the Kentucky Derby here to get $25 in bonuses with a $5 wager:
How to make 2026 Kentucky Derby picks
Moreover, Yu’s top pick is a horse who is “screaming for more ground.” She’s also is high on a double-digit longshot who “drew perfectly.” She’s sharing which 2026 Kentucky Derby horses to back at SportsLine.
So who wins the 2026 Kentucky Derby? What double-digit longshot is a must-back, and how has Yu constructed her wagers? Visit SportsLine to see Yu’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the Santa Anita-based racing insider who has a long history of success in the Kentucky Derby, and find out.
