According to an exclusive DailyMail.com poll, supporters of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could potentially swing the presidential election in favor of Donald Trump over Kamala Harris this November.
The poll reveals that Kennedy’s backers prefer Trump over Harris by a two-to-one margin.
While Kennedy, the nephew of John F. Kennedy, is currently garnering single-digit support, such a shift in voter preference could be pivotal in a close election. The outcome might hinge on a relatively small number of votes in key swing states.
This issue gains urgency amid growing speculation that Kennedy may soon exit the race.
He is set to address this possibility on Friday in Phoenix, Arizona, where he plans to discuss “the present historical moment and his path forward” at 2 p.m. Eastern time. Notably, he has already removed his name from the Arizona ballot.
J.L. Partners conducted two surveys of more than 1000 likely voters on voting intention and political attitudes. By combining the data, it is possible to see which way RFK Jr voters lean when the choice becomes Trump or Harris, and more than half lean towards the former president. The polls were conducted from August 7 to 11
The recent poll, conducted in collaboration with J.L. Partners from August 7 to 11, surveyed 1,001 likely voters, revealing that only five percent would choose Kennedy if the election were held today.
He was far behind Trump on 43 percent and Harris on 41 percent.
But when that poll was combined with a second survey to ask whether they lean more to Trump or to Harris the results appear to be decisive: More than half (51 percent) said they leaned towards the former president.
About a quarter (26 percent) said they leaned more to Harris.
That could swell Trump’s voter base by a point or two if Kennedy is no longer running.
‘Don’t buy the line that RFK Jr. only makes a small difference to the election,’ said J.L. Partners cofounder James Johnson.
‘This is a major third party candidate dropping out.
‘And our data show that even before that, RFK Jr.’s voters were going to go to Trump by a large margin if their man wasn’t in the race.’
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has officially filed paperwork withdrawing his name from the presidential race in Arizona amid rumors he will drop out of the election on Friday
Our poll shows Donald Trump will pick up more of RFK Jr’s voters than Harris
The data can also be used to see what happens to people who voted Biden in 2020 but said they backed RFK Jr. now. More than a quarter say they lean towards Trump
RFK Jr., 70, an environmental lawyer with a nose for conspiracy theories and anti-vax arguments, entered the race as a Democrat.
But he switched to independent after failing to find purchase against Biden in the primary contest.
Previous J.L. Partners polls had shown he had picked up more support from the left than the right.
‘The data also show there is a small but significant group of voters who opted for Biden in 2020, moved to RFK Jr, and are now leaning Trump,’ said Johnson.
‘These voters—who used RFK Jr as a sort of gateway drug to backing Trump—could make all the difference in states on a knife-edge, and RFK Jr’s dropping out will give Trump a boost in these states.
‘It is a more significant development than anything out of the DNC this week.’
Trump is on a tour of battleground states and is due to hold a rally near Phoenix soon after RFK Jr’s announcement.
His campaign has teased a special guest, heightening speculation that Kennedy will endorse the former president.
During a trip to the southern border on Thursday, Trump said he was open to the possibility, calling it a ‘great honor.’
He also said there might be room in his administration for RFK Jr, the son of Robert Kennedy, JFK’s attorney general.
But he will face a battle to win over RFK Jr’s supporters.
Harris communications director Michael Tyler told MSNBC that her campaign would welcome his voters.
‘I think that him dropping out fully cements … that this election is going to be a choice between Vice President Harris, who is fighting for the American people, [and] Donald Trump, who … is simply fighting for himself,’ he said at the Democratic convention in Chicago.
Kennedy has endured a turbulent campaign. He recently admitted he dumped a dead bear cub in Manhattan’s Central Park in 2014.
And he struggled with strained campaign finances and legal challenges, including a ruling in New York that he should not appear on the ballot in the state because he listed a ‘sham’ address on nominating petitions.
