Labour is poised to lose significant support from Muslim voters in the upcoming local elections, according to a revealing new poll. The survey indicates that three out of five British Muslim voters might opt for a pro-Gaza independent candidate over Labour. Additionally, nearly half are considering supporting Zack Polanski’s Green Party as a form of protest against the current government. Insights from the Policy Exchange think tank suggest that anti-Labour sentiment has intensified among Muslims in key constituencies, largely due to dissatisfaction with Labour’s handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict. Keir Starmer faced backlash after seemingly endorsing Israel’s right to cut off essential resources to Gaza, a stance he later clarified was not his. Under Jeremy Corbyn in 2019, Labour enjoyed 80% support from the Muslim community, but this figure has since plummeted, with a 20% national drop predicted ahead of the 2024 General Election, and even steeper declines in certain areas.
The Green Surge and Growing Concerns Over Electoral Integrity
The by-election in Gorton and Denton this past February served as a critical alert for Labour, in a region with a 28% Muslim demographic. Under Zack Polanski’s vocally pro-Palestine leadership, the Green Party was accused of exploiting the Gaza conflict for political gain but managed to secure an unexpected victory with a 26.4% swing. Currently, the Greens boast 27% support among Muslim voters, which is 10 points higher than their average polling during general elections. The Policy Exchange’s findings indicate that Keir Starmer’s perceived efforts to “pander” to Muslim voters—by not aligning with US-Israeli actions against Iran—have not stemmed the loss of support. Moreover, the poll raises concerns over the integrity of the democratic process, highlighting that one-seventh of Muslims in surveyed areas reported having their postal votes collected by a campaigner, a practice banned in 2022, occurring nearly twice as frequently as among the general voter population.
Widening Divide
The survey, which interviewed over 1,000 British Muslim voters in regions including Greater London, the West Midlands, Greater Manchester, West Yorkshire, and parts of Lancashire, South Yorkshire, and Merseyside, reveals a growing divide between Muslim voters and the rest of the population. Muslim voters are reportedly five times more likely than the average Briton to base their vote this Thursday on the Israel-Gaza issue. About 25% of Muslim voters say this conflict will influence their choice at the polls, compared to only 5% of the wider population. The poll also uncovered that 25% of British Muslims hold a favorable view of Hamas, with 28% expressing a negative opinion. Similarly, more British Muslims view Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps favorably than unfavorably, despite its anticipated designation as a terrorist organization by Britain.
One-in-four Muslim voters also said they believe that violence can be a legitimate response to someone burning the Qur’an, or for showing or creating an image of Muhammad, over 2.5 times higher than the public at large. The think tank’s findings shed further light on views towards the Jewish community among British Muslims, with 45% of those polled saying they believe Jews have too much power over the media, and 39% saying they have too much power over Parliament. Some 21% admitted that they feel ‘unfavourably’ towards Jewish people, compared to 11% of the wider electorate. Dr Rakib Ehsan, lead author the Policy Exchange’s new report ‘Understanding Islamopopulism’, warned that the data reveals that Labour is set to be ‘punished’ by Muslim voters.
He explained: ‘The data shows that the Labour Party is on course to be further punished by British Muslims in the English local elections, with a likely surge of Muslim independent candidates being elected in cities such as Birmingham and towns like Blackburn, along with a number of London boroughs including Newham. ‘The fresh polling also reveals that there are fundamental differences between the wider general population and British Muslims living in parts of England where problems over integration continue to persist . This is especially stark over the extent to which Israel-Gaza is prioritised as an issue when deciding how to vote in the forthcoming local elections.
‘Among the British Muslims living in the polled areas, there are worrying levels of antisemitic conspiratorial beliefs and support for the criminalisation of blasphemy. The findings show that the UK is far from being a stable multi-faith democracy.’ Reacting to the findings, Conservative Party chairman Kevin Hollinrake told the Daily Mail: ‘This research is further evidence of the worrying rise of separatism and sectarianism in our society. ‘As Kemi Badenoch has said, identity politics is a dead end, whatever form it takes. It divides people rather than bringing them together. ‘A cohesive culture that holds together must be built on common values, not special grievance and group pressure.’
