No one can predict the future, especially when dealing with a rogue nation that holds global stability at ransom.
It’s glaringly clear that the UK is bracing for a turbulent period in the months ahead, regardless of whether a ceasefire is reached between the United States and Iran, a regime notorious for its oppressive actions.
For many families, preparing for tough times will be essential—not just for the coming months but potentially for much longer.
The recent troubling events in the Middle East have set into motion unavoidable repercussions for the UK economy.
Even before these developments, we were anticipating what some have dubbed ‘awful April,’ as my colleague Helen Kirrane describes on Pages 52-53, due to increasing council tax, rising broadband and mobile fees, and stagnant income tax thresholds.
However, the challenges now extend to ‘awful’ 2026 and beyond, with projections indicating that inflation, interest and mortgage rates, as well as energy, food, and petrol costs, will surge this year.
UK Government bond prices will also come under extreme pressure for all kinds of reasons (as David Coombs of investment house Rathbone Asset Management presciently predicted when I spoke to him earlier this month). Not good news for Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves.
Unemployment, sadly, will keep rising, and it is likely the UK economy will plunge into recession.
The UK is in for a rocky ride in the months to come, even if Donald Trump strikes a peace deal
This bleak outlook isn’t doing any good for Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ dire economic position
As for stock markets – where a lot of our long-term wealth is tied up – price gyrations are likely to be the norm until Iran stops (voluntarily or by force) its stranglehold on international trade passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Pretty bleak? Sadly, the answer is yes. It’s what all the financial experts are telling us. Even this hopeless, intransigent Government, which has trapped the country in a quagmire of soaring benefit payments and stifling higher (personal and business) taxes, is now admitting the economy faces ‘significant challenges’.
So far, it has done little in response to the consequences of the conflict in the Middle East (financially as well as militarily) other than put together an assistance package for those who heat their homes with oil – and waffle on about coming down hard on companies using the geopolitical imbroglio to price gouge (profit at customers’ expense).
Other Government help is likely to be rolled out in the coming weeks (or months), but it will not be on the scale that we saw in response to the lockdown of the UK economy in 2020 or the surge in energy prices after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has made it clear any ameliorative measures will be targeted more at low-income households than applied universally (the exception is a possible extension to the 5p cut in fuel duty which is currently due to expire in September).
Understandable on one level, but deeply political and predictable on another given Labour’s dislike of the middle classes (we only exist to be milked for tax) and its obsession with green energy (funded via our astronomic energy bills).
Are there financial chinks of light we can look out for? And are there things we can do which will help our finances?
The answer to these questions – thankfully – is yes.
The shafts of light are few and far between, but come in the form of a higher state pension which kicks in next month. It represents inflation-busting increases, but will be nibbled away by rising food and energy bills.
The new energy cap, which kicks in on Wednesday, will also temporarily dampen down household gas and electricity bills, reducing average annual bills by 6.7 per cent to £1,641. But this is the calm before the storm. Energy experts are now forecasting that the cap is likely to breach £2,000 when it is set for the last three months of the year.
So much for Labour’s promise to cut annual bills by £300 by 2030.
It also seems that motor and home insurance premiums are drifting down, although this might only last until the end of the year.
So what to do?
There are options, as a number of money experts have been keen to point out to me.
All might not apply to you in light of your age or financial situation. But I’d be amazed if at least one idea didn’t save you some money.
Energy: On energy bills, it’s worth exploring options besides price cap rates, although competitively priced fixed-rate deals are now harder to come by than they were seven days ago. They will give you financial peace of mind if energy prices reach the levels experts are predicting.
Take a look at: thisismoney.co.uk/energy-deals.
For the record, I’ve just locked into a two-year fix with EDF Energy. Other options to consider include discounted tariffs (which are below the price cap) and time-of-use-tariffs.
Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at Wealth Club, says: ‘A time-of-use tariff charges different rates depending upon when you use energy, with a smart meter tracking usage.
‘For example, if you can use your washing machine, dishwasher or batch cook late at night, it may suit your lifestyle while simultaneously helping your budget.’
Cash: It makes more sense than ever to have a cash buffer in place to meet unexpected – and rising – bills. It is also a good time to go through your bank statements and identify any annual or monthly subscriptions that are more of a luxury than a necessity.
Says Streeter: ‘Ruthlessness is the order of the day.
‘Ask yourself, “Do I really need multiple streaming services, repeat purchases of protein pouches or beauty products?” If the answer is no, cancel.
‘Equally, if you spend £50 a month on health treatments or a gym subscription, use the money instead to offset any rise in food and energy bills.’
Managing your savings effectively is more crucial than ever. That means using tax-efficient cash Isas and ensuring you are earning a decent interest rate.
‘Savers need to keep a keen eye on the interest they are earning on their cash balances,’ says Ian Futcher, financial planner at wealth manager Quilter.
‘They must then be prepared to move provider to secure a competitive rate.’
Home loans: Nearly two million homeowners will be looking to remortgage this year.
With rates – fixed rates especially – rising, using a mortgage broker to secure the best deal for you is an imperative: ideally, one which can scour the whole loans market.
Shopping around well ahead of your current deal expiring makes great financial sense.
David Hollingworth of L&C Mortgages says: ‘Mortgage offers are typically valid for up to six months. So you can lock in a rate, but then switch if deals have improved ahead of your completion date.’
He adds: ‘The only thing to watch out for is that if you secure a fixed- rate deal six months in advance, it could mean you won’t enjoy the full period of the term. This is because most fixed-rate deals have a predetermined end date.’
Other options to lighten ongoing mortgage costs include extending the loan term, thereby reducing monthly payments. This offers breathing space but the downside is that it will result in higher interest costs overall.
And finally…
On the investing front, it is tempting to run for the proverbial hills when stock markets are so volatile. But I agree with Emma Wall, chief investment strategist at Hargreaves Lansdown, when she says: ‘The most sensible thing for most investors to do is nothing.’
She adds: ‘Investors should be mindful that these are whipsaw stock markets we are experiencing – and it is near impossible to trade with conviction’.
I will give the last word on investing to Paul Kearney, chair of investment specialist Asset Risk Consultants. He says investors should keep their portfolios well diversified and intact.
He adds: ‘Broad market exposure is not designed to produce remarkable stories. It is designed to capture the returns markets offer with minimal reliance on exceptional judgment.
‘It maximises the probability of staying the course, which remains one of the strongest predictors of long-term outcomes.’
In other words, keep funding your stocks and shares Isas and putting money into your pension.
And don’t let short-term noise put you off your long-term financial goals.
