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Home Local news Idaho Primaries 2023: Key Insights and Expectations from AP Decision Analysis
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Idaho Primaries 2023: Key Insights and Expectations from AP Decision Analysis

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AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Idaho’s primaries

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Idaho Primaries 2023: Key Insights and Expectations from AP Decision Analysis

WASHINGTON – This Tuesday marks a pivotal moment for Idaho as voters head to the polls for the state primary, setting the stage for the selection of candidates across federal, state, and local offices.

The outcomes of these contests will be instrumental in shaping the political landscape for the upcoming November general election. With a stronghold in Idaho, Republicans are aiming for significant victories to bolster their control over the U.S. Senate and House.

In the Republican camp, U.S. Senator Jim Risch is seeking a fourth term and faces competition from three challengers: Joe Evans, Denny LaVe, and Josh Roy. Risch has a considerable edge in fundraising, having surpassed his rivals as the campaign enters its final weeks.

On the Democratic side, the race for the U.S. Senate nomination features David Roth, Nickolas “007” Bonds, and Brad Moore. Notably, Roth is the only candidate who has reported campaign contributions, totaling approximately $7,500. However, his campaign reported having depleted these funds by March 31, according to federal campaign finance data. Roth has previously run as the Democratic nominee in the 2nd Congressional District in 2024 and for the U.S. Senate in 2022.

Meanwhile, Republican Governor Brad Little is vying for a third term and faces a broad field of seven contenders. Despite the number of challengers, Little maintains a significant financial advantage, having raised around $1.9 million, with $1.2 million still available. His closest competitor, Mark Fitzpatrick, a bar owner and former police officer, has raised about $185,000, with approximately $35,000 remaining. The other candidates lag considerably behind in funding.

In the Democratic race for governor, attorney Terri Pickens is leading in terms of campaign finances. She previously ran unopposed for the party’s nomination for lieutenant governor in 2022 and is now facing three other candidates in the 2026 race.

Primaries for lieutenant governor, secretary of state, state controller, state treasurer, state attorney general and state schools superintendent are also on the ballot, but the Democratic and Republican candidates for those offices are running unopposed.

Idaho is one of the most reliably Republican states in the country. President Donald Trump received about 67% of the vote in the 2024 presidential election, his fourth-best state performance behind Wyoming, West Virginia and North Dakota.

The state last elected a Democrat for U.S. House in 2008, for governor in 1990 and for U.S. Senate in 1974.

Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:

When do polls close?

Polls close at 8 p.m. local time, which is 10 p.m. and 11 p.m. ET. Polls in most of the state observe Mountain time and close at 10 p.m. ET, while polls in Pacific time close at 11 p.m. ET.

What’s on the ballot?

The AP will provide vote results and declare winners in contested primaries for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, governor, state Senate and state House.

Who gets to vote?

Any registered voter may participate in the Democratic primary regardless of party registration. Only registered Republicans may vote in the Republican primary. Eligible voters may register in-person at the polls during the early voting period or on Election Day. Unaffiliated voters may affiliate with a party on Election Day.

How many voters are there?

As of Feb. 2, there were a little more than 1 million registered voters in Idaho. Of those, about 628,000 were Republicans, about 120,000 were Democrats and about 259,000 were not affiliated with any party.

How many people actually vote?

In the 2022 state primaries, total votes in Republican primaries ranged from about 265,000 to 282,000 votes, or about 27% of registered voters at the time. Total votes in Democratic primaries that year range from about 25,000 to 33,000 votes, roughly 3% of registered voters.

How much of the vote is cast early or by absentee ballot?

About 14% of the Republican primary vote and about 29% of the Democratic primary vote were cast before primary day in 2022.

As of May 12, about 38,000 ballots had already been cast in Tuesday’s election, including about 27,000 in the Republican primary and about 9,600 in the Democratic primary.

When are early and absentee votes released?

Nearly all of Idaho’s 44 counties tend to release all or almost all their early and absentee voting results in the first vote update of the night.

About half of all counties release all their vote results in the first vote update regardless of how they were cast.

How long does vote-counting usually take?

In the 2024 general election in Idaho, the AP first reported results at 11:13 p.m. ET, or 13 minutes after the final polls closed. The last vote update of the night was at 6:23 a.m. ET with about 90% of total votes counted.

When will the AP declare a winner?

The Associated Press does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

How do recounts work?

There are no automatic recounts in Idaho, but a candidate may request and pay for one regardless of vote margin. The state or county pays for the recount if the vote margin is 0.1% of the total vote margin or less or if the recount changes the outcome. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

Are we there yet?

As of Tuesday, there will be 168 days until the 2026 midterm elections.

___

Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2026 election at

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