For those eager to dive into MLB betting and explore home run prop betting, Monday, May 18 presents a rich slate of 14 games. Among these, a pivotal NL West showdown between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Diego Padres stands out, alongside the Chicago Cubs’ matchup with the Milwaukee Brewers in a nail-biting NL Central contest. High-powered teams such as the Atlanta Braves and New York Yankees are also taking the field, making this a prime opportunity for bettors. Before placing any wagers, consider the insights from SportsLine MLB expert Angelo Magliocca, who is highlighting his top picks.
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Angelo Magliocca, or “Amags,” has carved out a reputation as a highly successful MLB handicapper, leveraging his extensive baseball expertise to identify value in player props, sides, and totals. He has consistently delivered impressive results at SportsLine, amassing a gain of 133.4 units on straight bets and parlays, along with an additional 25.3 units from ladder plays over the 2022 to 2025 MLB seasons.
Best Home Run picks for Monday
Ian Happ (+330) and Michael Busch (+360), Cubs
Brandon Sproat has encountered difficulties with left-handed hitters, allowing four of the 16 hits against him in 15 innings to clear the fence. His home run to fly ball ratio hovers around 20% over more than 30 innings, suggesting a troubling trend. With favorable hitting conditions expected at Wrigley Field today, it seems opportune to target him with a couple of power-hitting lefties.
Sproat’s performance has been hindered by a 9.8% barrel rate, a hard-hit rate of 42.7%, and an xwOBA of .352, all indicative of his struggles with command this season. I’m backing the Cubs at home, betting on their left-handed hitters to capitalize on Sproat’s vulnerabilities. Given Milwaukee’s bullpen’s strength, the key will be to exploit Sproat’s weaknesses for the crucial runs.
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Kazuma Okamoto (+410), Blue Jays
Okamoto has posted a 15.7% barrel rate thus far, along with a 53.7% hard-hit rate and 93.1 mph average exit velocity. He currently leads all third basemen in home runs and RBI while ranking fifth in wRC+ at 128. Ryan Weathers has allowed six home runs in 36 innings to right handed batters and even though Okamoto has been better for power against righties, I like the matchup here.
Furthermore, he will get the full nine at-bats being on the away team and the Yankees bullpen has been reeling after all the recent losses and blown lead late yesterday. Okamoto will see righties out of the bullpen for sure and if not, I still think he’s better than just one home run against lefties so far. Mixed with the troubles that Weathers has had against righties and playing in Yankee Stadium with warm weather, I like this spot.
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