Following a significant overhaul that included a head coaching change and a hefty investment in new talent during the offseason, the New England Patriots managed to catapult themselves from a 13-loss season to a Super Bowl appearance. Quarterback Drake Maye made impressive strides in his second year, finishing as the runner-up for MVP, while Mike Vrabel earned the title of NFL Coach of the Year. Nonetheless, it’s undeniable that the Patriots benefited from the league’s easiest schedule and faced a backup quarterback in the conference championship game. As the 2026 season approaches, the question remains: how many more than three games will New England lose?
Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills once again fell short in the playoffs, suffering a 33-30 overtime defeat to the Denver Broncos in the divisional round. This surprising loss led to the unexpected dismissal of coach Sean McDermott. Notably, Buffalo joins an exclusive club as the fourth team in NFL history to secure a playoff victory in six consecutive seasons. However, unlike the other three franchises that went on to win three titles, the Bills have yet to claim a single championship. The responsibility now falls on Joe Brady to guide the team to that elusive triumph.
In the case of the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets, both teams endured losing seasons again in 2025. Yet, optimism is brewing for these franchises. The Jets have completely overhauled their roster, especially on the defensive front, while the Dolphins welcome a new quarterback, Malik Willis. Willis showed flashes of brilliance during his limited time with the Green Bay Packers, leaving fans eager to see what he can offer Miami.
With the complete 2026 NFL schedule now available, it’s time to delve into the season’s prospects. Let’s analyze the projected win totals for each AFC East team, as provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.
AFC East
Buffalo Bills: Over/Under 10.5 (Over -125, Under +105)
The Bills have consistently notched at least 11 wins annually since 2020, but their decision to part ways with their coach and elevate offensive coordinator Joe Brady after their recent overtime playoff exit raised eyebrows. In Buffalo, the expectation is clear: it’s Super Bowl or nothing.
On the competitive front, the Patriots, Buffalo’s primary rivals, are anticipated to decline after claiming the AFC title last season. Moreover, the Bills have bolstered their roster by adding DJ Moore as a new weapon for Josh Allen. However, the team faces one of the top 10 most challenging schedules, considering the previous season’s combined win percentage of their upcoming opponents. Despite these challenges, the Bills are favored at -130 to clinch the division and an overwhelming -320 to secure a playoff berth. Keep a close watch on the Bills’ season opener, which features a demanding lineup: at the Houston Texans, then hosting the Detroit Lions and Los Angeles Chargers, followed by a matchup with the Patriots and a visit to the Los Angeles Rams. It’s a tough start, but I predict the Bills will achieve an 11-6 record and claim the division title.
Verdict: Over 10.5
Miami Dolphins: Over/Under 4.5 (-110)
The Miami Dolphins and Arizona Cardinals have the lowest preseason win totals this season at 4.5, and two of the toughest schedules in the NFL as well. The Dolphins are beginning anew with a new coach, general manager and quarterback in Malik Willis. The former third-round pick out of Liberty flashed with the Packers, but how will he look in this new system with less talent around him? De’Von Achane is a stud, but Willis’ wide receiver room is headlined by Malik Washington, Jalen Tolbert and Tutu Atwell. Furthermore, take a gander at the defensive depth chart for the Dolphins. I would say it’s concerning — on paper. Maybe Jeff Hafley can get the most out of his new players, but I’m not taking the Over on this win total.
Verdict: Under 4.5
New England Patriots: Over/Under 10.5 (Over +125, Under -150)
Two things can be true: You can be a fan of Drake Maye and Mike Vrabel’s defense, while also agreeing that the Patriots are poised to take a step backward in 2026. New England is set to play the sixth-toughest strength of schedule after playing the easiest slate since the turn of the millennium, and have the toughest Weeks 1-4 strength of schedule entering a season by any team in 40 YEARS, according to CBS Sports Research. There’s a Super Bowl rematch against the Seattle Seahawks to start the year, then the Pittsburgh Steelers in New England Week 2, followed by back-to-back road games against the Jacksonville Jaguars and Bills. All four teams made the playoffs last year.
What was the Patriots’ best win last season? The Bills in Week 5? Maybe the Baltimore Ravens in Week 16? They weren’t even a playoff team in 2025. Then there’s the Vrabel factor. He would like to move past “Russinigate,” but I do wonder how the whole scandal is being handled in the Patriots’ building. I will be leaning toward the Under for New England in 2026.
Verdict: Under 10.5
New York Jets: Over/Under 5.5 (Over -120, Under 5.5)
Could the New York Jets double their win total in 2026? It’s possible. If we were to list the most improved teams from this offseason, the Jets should be included. New York completely revamped its defense by adding new starters like David Bailey, T’Vondre Sweat, Demario Davis and Minkah Fitzpatrick, plus the Jets have a new quarterback in Geno Smith. It’s true Smith struggled mightily with the Las Vegas Raiders in 2025, but I would argue he’s actually an upgrade for the Jets considering the offensive line and weaponry/wide receivers now at his disposal. There was no Garrett Wilson in Sin City, and Brock Bowers was fighting through a knee injury all year. I say the Jets reach six wins this upcoming season. The question is will that be enough for Aaron Glenn to keep his job?
Verdict: Over 5.5
Odds to win the AFC East in 2026
|
Buffalo Bills |
-130 |
|
New England Patriots |
+130 |
|
New York Jets |
+1800 |
|
Miami Dolphins |
+3500 |
