In the storied annals of British democracy, few by-elections carry the weight of the current battle in Makerfield, Greater Manchester. This pivotal contest could seal the fate of Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer and shape the nation’s political landscape for years. Essentially, this by-election serves as a miniature general election.
A victory for Labour candidate Andy Burnham could bring significant ramifications. The outspoken Manchester Mayor, often dubbed the ‘King of the North,’ might swiftly unseat Starmer, paving his way to power. Should Burnham ascend to Downing Street, a dramatic shift to the Left is anticipated, with potential increases in taxes and welfare spending. The Labour government could see a renewed alignment with the EU and trade unions, alongside policies like nationalisation and price controls. Furthermore, the Left might cement its grasp by expanding state bureaucracy, empowering devolved assemblies, and extending voting rights to 16-year-olds.
Yet, if Reform UK, Burnham’s chief rival, secures victory, it could invigorate conservative forces and offer a chance to reverse the socialist tide. A defeat for Burnham could deepen Labour’s leadership woes, highlighting vulnerabilities in its traditional strongholds and casting doubt on its national prospects.
However, achieving this critical win requires unity on the centre-right. A recent opinion poll from Makerfield shows a tight race, with Labour at 43% and Reform closely trailing at 40%. A narrow margin means every vote could be decisive. Given the stakes and potential impact on Britain’s governance, those opposing Labour must prioritize the nation’s interest over personal ambitions.
Despite the opportunity to weaken Labour, the centre-right remains fragmented. Reform UK and the Conservative Party have yet to discuss a potential alliance, even as they share a common goal of challenging Labour’s dominance.
If the Labour candidate Andy Burnham wins, the bumptious, egocentric Manchester Mayor will immediately commit regicide against Starmer, writes Leo McKinstry
Even when handed this golden opportunity to cause serious damage to Labour, the centre-right remains divided. Neither Reform UK nor the Conservative Party seem willing to talk about a pact, despite a shared mutual interest in bringing down Labour.
Perhaps even more worrying is the insistence by the fringe right-wing party Restore Britain, led by the maverick Great Yarmouth MP Rupert Lowe, on running its own candidate in Makerfield. It is an exercise in destructive frivolity which can achieve nothing except to bolster Labour. Indeed, Rebecca Shepherd, the Restore candidate chosen for this mission, could not be supporting Burnham more if she were his paid agent.
Last weekend’s opinion poll put her Restore vote at just 7 per cent, way behind Labour and Reform – so Ms Shepherd has no chance of winning. But, in this wafer-thin marginal, she has every chance of creating a sufficiently large fracture in the anti-Labour vote to allow Burnham to sneak over the line.
What makes Restore’s stance so ridiculous is that there are no great issues of principle that divide Lowe’s party from Nigel Farage’s Reform movement. They both agree on the need for stronger borders, far more deportations, lower taxes, reductions in welfare and a pro-business environment. It is a personality clash, not policy, that has put Lowe on the path of sabotage.
A Eurosceptic and successful businessman, reportedly worth £30 million, Rupert Lowe was once a Tory member but left over the Maastricht Treaty, which heralded the creation of the European Union. Having joined UKIP, he was elected to the European parliament in 2019 under the banner of Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party which became Reform UK.
At first he and Farage got on reasonably well but friction arose between them when Lowe was elected as an MP in 2024. Self-important and fuelled by delusions of grandeur, he embarked on a collision course with the Reform leader, sniping at Farage and openly questioning his style of leadership.
In March 2025, he told this paper that Reform UK was ‘a protest party led by a Messiah.’ The situation was inflamed by his association with the idiosyncratic tycoon, Elon Musk, the world’s richest man. It was Musk who also decided that Farage ‘does not have what it takes’ to be the leader of the right in Britain and instead anointed Lowe for the role.
On Sunday, Musk shared a tweet from Lowe about the by-election, saying: ‘Restore Britain.’
The Tesla CEO’s cheerleading, which showed no respect for the realities of British democracy, fed Lowe’s vanity, particularly by raising his online profile and giving him a vast global reach. Lowe now has over 930,000 followers on Facebook and nearly 770,000 on Musk-owned X, while figures in President Trump’s MAGA movement eagerly endorse him on Truth Social.
There is a danger that Britain will pay an appalling price for Lowe’s ego trip in Makerfield. Pictured, former Reform MP Rupert Lowe with his candidate for Restore Britain, Rebecca Shepherd
Yet Lowe’s apparent attempt to build an alternative power base with in Reform was intolerable to the leadership. Amid allegations of inappropriate behaviour with female members of staff and threats of violence against party chairman Zia Yusuf – allegations Lowe claimed were false and part of a ‘brutal smear campaign’ by Reform – he was forced out and went on to form his own Restore Britain Party.
Whatever the truth about his departure from Reform, there is little doubt he has considerable faith in his own genius – and to be fair he has made a fortune in business. But he is no stranger to friction with some of those he works with.
In the football world, as chairman of Southampton FC for over a decade, he became the target for fans’ fury and players reportedly sniggered at his appearances on the training ground in a tracksuit emblazoned with the initials ‘RL’.
The words used about his time in charge included: ‘pompous’, ‘stupid’, ‘buffoon’ and ‘lightweight’. Simon Jordan, the former chairman of Crystal Palace, once wrote of his ‘comic book pomposity and his superior air’. During his tenure at Southampton Lowe got through eight changes of manager, hardly a testimony to his stable leadership qualities.
But all this is almost beside the point given the predicament Britain now faces with Makerfield. There is a real danger that Britain will pay an appalling price for Lowe’s ego trip in the constituency.
These grave times at home and abroad call for self-restraint, not self-indulgence. It is absurd to allow the coherence of the centre-right to be sacrificed on the altar of personal spite. No matter how ferocious his ambition, no matter how deep – or even reasonable – his antipathy towards Farage might be.
The task of defeating socialism should override such personal concerns. If Lowe truly cared about Britain as much as he says, he would be out campaigning with his former Reform colleagues instead of undermining them.
Vanity is one of the besetting sins of politicians, who often convince themselves that the advance of their own career is synonymous with the national interest. Tony Benn was a classic example. Though he always denied he was building a personality cult, he helped to keep Labour in the wilderness of opposition for almost two decades through his rebellious antics and addiction to internal disputes.
Robert Kilroy Silk was another self regarding politician whose belief in his own greatness caused endless friction within Labour, then UKIP and then his own Eurosceptic party called Veritas – known to critics as Vanitas – which he abandoned after only a few months.
The Makerfield by-election is not a game. It must not be an arena for clanking egos and puerile scraps. The stakes are far too high. On this result depends real people’s jobs, standards of living, financial security and prospects. The future of the nation is on the ballot paper and those with any influence over the outcome must not squander this power.
Does Rupert Lowe really want to go down in history as the man who helped make Burnham prime minister?
