In the lead-up to Tuesday’s primary election, an exclusive California Post poll reveals a tight race between Republican Steve Hilton and billionaire Democrat Tom Steyer. Both candidates are neck and neck, each securing 25% of the potential votes.
The poll, conducted between May 26 and May 28, positions Democrat Xavier Becerra in a close third with 19% of voter support. Trailing behind is Republican Chad Bianco, garnering 10%, followed by Democrat Katie Porter with 7%, and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, who is currently at 6%.
With a margin of error of 3.5%, the poll was conducted with a robust confidence level of 95%. Notably, 15% of participants opted to complete their interviews in Spanish, highlighting the diverse electorate of California.
The survey captured the opinions of 800 likely voters through multiple channels, including cellphone, text, and landline, ensuring a comprehensive snapshot of the current political landscape as the primary approaches.
Fifteen percent of those surveyed chose to complete their interviews in Spanish.
The poll surveyed 800 likely voters by cellphone, text and landline.
Steyer, a hedge fund founder, has poured more than $200 million into his campaign, blanketing airwaves and social media with ads casting himself as a progressive populist determined to raise taxes on the wealthy.
The poll also suggests Hilton is in a strong position to advance to the November runoff.
“Republicans and independents have put Steve Hilton among the leaders, but the real battle is among Steyer and Becerra for Democratic votes,” said John McLaughlin, from McLaughlin & Associates, who conducted the poll.
“The lack of Democratic support for Hilton has him frozen. Democrats make up about half the electorate.
”This is the real primary within the primary, and Tom Steyer appears to be surging among Democrats.”
Voters were largely down on every candidate in the race – but Porter fared worst of all, posting a favorability rating that was 17 points underwater.
More than half of respondents, 51%, viewed her negatively, compared with just 24 % who had a favorable opinion.
Steyer was two points underwater, with 43 % viewing him favorably and 45 % unfavorably. Hilton was six points in the red at 36 % to 42 %, while Becerra trailed at negative 11 points, with 38% favorable and 49% unfavorable.
Among independent voters, Hilton drew the strongest support at 24%.
Steyer followed with 17%, while Becerra picked up 14%.
The survey also found deep dissatisfaction with the direction of the state.
A majority of voters, 56%, said California is on the wrong track, with half disapproving of the job Newsom is doing as governor.
Economic issues were most important to those surveyed, with 23% citing the cost of living as the most important issue, followed by affordable housing (10%), government and politics (8%), taxes (8%), the economy and jobs (7%), homelessness (6%) and fiscal responsibility (6%).
“Gavin Newsom is polarizing. Only 49% of all voters approve of the job Gavin Newsom is doing while 50% disapprove of the job he’s done, including 22% among Democrats.
“Most Californians want change,” McLaughlin added.
“Gavin Newsom is polarizing. Only 49% of all voters approve of the job Gavin Newsom is doing while 50% disapprove, including 22% among Democrats.”
The poll suggests Xavier Becerra is struggling to lock down the Hispanic voting bloc strategists had predicted he’d win.
Among Hispanic voters overall, Becerra leads with 27%, but his advantage is slim.
Steve Hilton and Tom Steyer are tied at 23% each, while Chad Bianco picks up 12%. Katie Porter trails at 3%, with Matt Mahan at 4%.
The numbers suggest Hilton, Steyer and Bianco are all cutting into the Hispanic support Becerra was expected to dominate.
Becerra performs better among voters who completed the survey in Spanish, winning 36% support compared to 29% for Steyer and 12% for Hilton.
Even there, however, he falls short of the commanding lead many political observers would have expected.
Overall, 4% of Hispanic voters remain undecided, while 1% had already voted or declined to answer.
