Predicting the winner of Saturday’s Belmont Stakes might seem straightforward at first glance. Golden Tempo recently clinched victory at the Kentucky Derby, outperforming four competitors who will also race in the upcoming Belmont. He recorded a Beyer Speed Figure in Louisville, which ties for the highest last-race speed figure among the Belmont contenders.
However, horse racing predictions are rarely that straightforward.
Golden Tempo may not be the best choice for bettors at the Belmont, held at Saratoga Race Course. Professional bettors often look to bet against favorites like him, seeking better value elsewhere in the Triple Crown’s final stage. Consider wagering on the Belmont through TwinSpires, where using the promo code CBSSPORTS can earn you $400 in bonus bets, twice the usual offer:
Why Golden Tempo is a must fade
The main factors steering bettors away from the Derby winner are pace and odds.
Golden Tempo benefited from an ideal pace scenario in the Kentucky Derby five weeks ago. The race had 18 contenders, with 10 having led or stayed within 1 3/4 lengths of the lead at the first call in their prior race. This resulted in a frantic pace breakdown, with the top three finishers — Golden Tempo, Renegade, and Ocelli — coming from the back of the pack.
In contrast, the nine-horse lineup for the Belmont Stakes lacks speedsters. Powershift, boasting the highest TimeformUS early pace figure at 111, has yet to lead in any of his three races. Among the nine Belmont horses, representing 41 combined career starts, only one has ever led the field, with Ottinho setting the pace in a maiden race on December 31.
The projected slow early pace does not suit Golden Tempo, a dead closer who has been either last or next to last in all five of his career starts. To be fair, he has won races before with slow early paces, but those victories did not come against the quality of rivals he will see on Saturday.
In addition, the expected odds on Golden Tempo make him an unattractive play. After going off at 23-1 in the Kentucky Derby, he is listed at 9-2 on the morning line for the Belmont Stakes. And there’s a good chance that he will leave the starting gate shorter than that. Casual bettors love putting their money on popular storylines, and Cherie DeVaux becoming the first woman to train a Kentucky Derby winne — as well as the media blitz that followed the race — have made her and the horse overnight sensations.
Could Golden Tempo win the Belmont Stakes? Sure. But he’ll need another pace meltdown that he’s not likely to get, and Golden Tempo believers will get less than 20% of the payout that they got five weeks ago in Louisville. Bet or fade Golden Tempo with the TwinSpires promo code CBSSPORTS, which gives new users $400 in bonus bets, double the standard offer:
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Revisiting the Kentucky Derby
With five of the nine horses in the Belmont Stakes coming out of the Kentucky Derby, handicapping the Belmont requires looking back at the first leg of the Triple Crown.
He showed no speed early and raced last of the 18, started picking up steam around the far turn, swung out wide at the top of the stretch and outkicked Renegade down the lane, getting up just before the wire. Relative to the other horses in the field, Golden Tempo got a clean trip and an enormous pace setup. Without one of those, a very strong case can be made that he doesn’t win the blanket of roses.
His rough trip in the Kentucky Derby has been well documented. Leaving from the dreaded No. 1 post, Renegade was pointed to the right by jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. out of the gate, got bumped and then knocked almost sideways in the first sixteenth of a mile. But the early trouble may have benefited him as it prevented him from getting dragged into the hot early pace. Like Golden Tempo, Renegade made his move around the far turn, swung out wide at the top of the stretch and rallied strongly down the lane, beaten only by Golden Tempo.
But because of Renegade’s well publicized trouble in the Derby, there is a possibility that he will be overbet in the Belmont Stakes.
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He was just 3 3/4 lengths off the brutal three-quarter mile pace (1:10.90), and just as he was trying to split horses in the stretch, he was bumped, ending all chances of victory. To his credit, he kept running to finish just 3 lengths back of Golden Tempo.
He was the only horse to be in the first 10 early to finish in the top four. For comparison, the top three finisher — Golden Tempo, Renegade and Ocelli — were 18th, 16th and 15th, respectively, after three-quarters of a mile.
With a much more favorable pace scenario in the Belmont Stakes, Chief Wallabee figures to have a big chance on Saturday.
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The first mile of his Derby was largely uneventful; he raced at the back of the first pack of horses, about 10 lengths off the early lead, enjoying a clean trip. The pace meltdown should’ve have set up perfectly for his late kick, but down the stretch he didn’t show the kick he had shown at Gulfstream Park. Perhaps he was too close to a hot pace or perhaps he was just not good enough.
Commandment apologists say that he was bumped by Ocelli in the stretch, but Commandment’s trouble down the lane has been overblown. By that time, he was already beaten.
Arguably only Golden Tempo got a cleaner trip than Emerging Market in the Kentucky Derby. He broke sharply, raced in sixth early and had a chance to pounce on the early leaders at the top of the stretch but didn’t kick in and faded to 10th, losing by almost 8 lengths.
Trainer Chad Brown later revealed that the horse lost the shoe on his left front foot in the first turn. Also, Brown said jockey Flavien Prat positioning Emerging Market that close to the early pace was a strategy agreed upon by jockey and trainer prior to the race, based on how the Churchill Downs track had been playing all week. Brown admitted that was a mistake in hindsight.
So there are excuses to explain his 10th place finish.
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Whom to bet in the Belmont Stakes
In the end, my most likely winner in the Belmont Stakes is Chief Wallabee. I think he was too close to the hot pace in the Kentucky Derby and will appreciate the much more favorable fractions in the Belmont much better.
But in horse racing, there’s an important distinction between the horse to beat and the horse to bet. Just because Chief Wallabee is my “top pick” doesn’t automatically make him the one to bet. His odds may not reflect fair value.
So for the Belmont Stakes, I created a fair odds line. These are the odds that I would need to bet each horse in the race to win. My fair odds on Chief Wallabee is 3-1, which is exactly what his morning-line odds are. However, if his live odds drop below 3-1, I’ll pivot to another horse.
| 1 Vitruvian Man | 100 |
| 2 Powershift | 9.1 |
| 3 Chief Wallabee | 3 |
| 4 Renegade | 4.3 |
| 5 Ottinho | 50 |
| 6 Growth Equity | 20 |
| 7 Commandment | 10 |
| 8 Emerging Market | 6.7 |
| 9 Golden Tempo | 12.5 |
That alternative could be Powershift. Trained by Todd Pletcher, Powershift is coming off a win on the Kentucky Derby day undercard, which earned a 95 Beyer Speed Figure, the co-best highest last-race Beyer in the field.
Most importantly, he holds a key tactical edge over the rest of the field: He’s the projected lone speed horse in a race full of off-the-pace horses.
