US President Donald Trump has often made light-hearted comments suggesting that Canada should join the United States as the ’51st state.’ However, in Alberta, this idea is gaining traction as a serious political movement.
In Alberta, known for its oil resources and conservative leanings, there is a growing push for closer ties with Washington rather than continuing its allegiance to Ottawa. This movement is gaining momentum, particularly in regions bordering Montana.
With a population of approximately five million, Alberta is set to vote in October on whether to take steps towards potentially holding a referendum on independence from Canada.
Dubbed ‘Wexit,’ short for Western Exit, some proponents are even envisioning the possibility of Alberta becoming America’s 51st state.
Behind the scenes, leaders of this separatist movement have been in discreet discussions with officials at the White House. Topics of these talks include the adoption of the US dollar, prospective energy agreements, and a potential severance from Ottawa.
Andrew Latham, a scholar with the Washington DC think tank Defense Priorities, has been monitoring this separatist surge closely. He notes that the prospect of Alberta aligning with the US is no longer a mere fantasy.
‘Alberta has oil and gas, potash and lots of critical minerals and rare earth elements,’ he told the Daily Mail.
‘It would be a plus if it were to join the US – and it would probably vote Republican.’
Secessionists wave the blue provincial flag in the run-up to a referendum on Alberta’s future
A Team Roping competitor during a one-day professional rodeo in Alberta, which has been dubbed the ‘Texas of Canada’ because of its population of Christians, cowboys and rodeo-lovers
Alberta – one of just three right-leaning provinces – has long been called the ‘Texas of Canada’ because of its cowboys, Christians, oil and gas, Latham added.
If it was to become an American state, Alberta’s politics could ensure Republican victories in contests like presidential elections – especially in tight races.
Still, polling suggests that Albertans will ultimately reject independence. One recent survey found 35 percent of voters support beginning the separation process with 60 percent opposed.
The province sits on the vast majority of the country’s oil reserves and has bankrolled the Canadian federation for decades.
Between 2007 and 2022, Alberta paid $244.6 billion more in federal taxes than it received back in spending – a staggering transfer of wealth that has fueled a burning sense of grievance.
Leaders of the Alberta Prosperity Project (APP), a separatist group, met US State Department officials in Washington three times since April last year, people familiar with the talks told the Financial Times.
They sought a $500 billion credit facility to bankroll the province if an independence referendum passes. They also speak of adopting the US dollar and expanding energy cooperation.
Jeff Rath, the APP’s lawyer who attended the meetings, told the outlet that Washington is ‘extremely enthusiastic about a free and independent Alberta.’
He claimed to have a ‘much stronger relationship’ with the Trump administration than with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent lit up separatist social media feeds in January when he described the oil-exporting province as ‘a natural partner for the US’ filled with ‘very independent people.’
Albertans will vote on October 19 on several reforms. Full independence is not yet on the ballot, but the movement behind it is gaining ground.
A separatist petition gathered more than 300,000 signatures – far above the threshold needed to trigger consideration of a referendum question.
Mitch Sylvestre, leader of the Alberta Independence Movement, seeks closer ties with Washington
Alberta sovereigntists and supporters gather outside the Alberta Legislature following the federal election in 2025. Some of Alberta’s separatists say the province should join the US as soon as possible
The contacts coincide with a sharp deterioration in relations between Washington and Ottawa.
Trump and Carney have repeatedly clashed over tariffs and Trump’s provocative rhetoric about absorbing Canada as a 51st state.
Carney has strongly opposed the separatist movement, calling Alberta’s independence push a ‘dangerous bluff’ he likened to the 2016 Brexit referendum in Britain, which many now say hurt that country.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith wants to keep her province inside the federation, but she has echoed the fury driving the separatist surge.
During a televised address to Albertans on May 5, she spoke of being ‘deeply frustrated with the way our province has been mistreated and damaged by successive federal Liberal governments.’
Five decades of federal environmental rules, emissions policies and restrictions on energy development have cost Albertans thousands of dollars each in lost annual earnings, studies show.
The looming referendum has become one of the gravest threats to Canadian national unity since the Quebec sovereignty referendums of 1980 and 1995.
Christopher Sands, director of the Center for US-Canada Studies at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, said the separatists’ arguments have a real economic logic.
He claimed that aligning more closely with a pro-energy US could give the province greater freedom to develop fossil fuel resources, expand infrastructure and access global markets.
‘If you’re fervent about Alberta being independent, you have enough positive signals that you could feel encouraged that this US administration would potentially welcome you in,’ Sands told the Daily Mail.
A protester at an April 2025 Resistance Rally organized by the Alberta Federation of Labour (AFL) to protest several issues including separatist ideologies. Polling shows that most Albertans have no interest in becoming part of America
Oil wells in a field in Alberta, which sits on the vast majority of Canada’s oil reserves and has bankrolled the federation for decades
But he said Washington’s interest is ultimately about leverage, not borders.
The Trump administration’s broader strategy, he argued, is to exploit Canadian internal divisions to pressure Ottawa during trade and diplomatic negotiations.
By letting word of the private talks trickle out, Sands argued, the White House was seeking to keep Carney and his government ‘off balance.’
Latham, also a professor of political science at Macalester College, believes the Maple Leaf flag will most likely fly over Edmonton for years to come – but he urged policymakers not to dismiss what is happening.
The most probable outcome he predicted is that even a successful separatist vote would lead to negotiations producing a more decentralized Canadian federation, rather than an independent Alberta or a new American state.
But that calculation depends on the movement remaining under control.
Alberta is landlocked, dependent on infrastructure crossing other provinces and faces a thicket of constitutional, Indigenous rights, debt and border questions that would make separation brutally complicated.
Canadian constitutional law does not permit unilateral secession. And even if Albertans voted for independence, joining the US would require approval from Congress – a formidable political obstacle.
The danger, Latham warned, is that political shocks routinely emerge from movements that elites initially underestimate.
A protest vote intended to send a message to Ottawa could produce an outcome nobody planned for.
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