A newspaper carrying a headline about indirect talks between Iran and the United States in Muscat, Oman, is seen at a newsstand in Tehran on April 12, 2025.
Fatemeh Bahrami | Anadolu | Getty Images
Early optimism over reports that Washington and Tehran had struck an interim agreement gave way to renewed uncertainty on Friday, after a planned round of follow-up negotiations in Switzerland was scrapped. The abrupt change highlighted how fragile the diplomatic progress remains and how difficult it may be to convert a temporary understanding into a durable peace arrangement.
Switzerland’s foreign ministry said the U.S.-Iran discussions that had been scheduled for Friday at Bürgenstock would no longer go ahead.
The White House separately confirmed that Vice President JD Vance would not travel to Switzerland as previously expected, pointing to unresolved logistical complications tied to the negotiations.
“The plans for the upcoming technical talks have not been finalized, and the U.S. delegation has been prepared to depart at the first available opportunity,” a White House spokesperson said.
“But the logistics of these negotiations have never been simple or predictable.”
The developments came a day after President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at developing a permanent peace deal to end the months-long conflict.
Challenges ahead
Analysts cautioned that the agreement represented only an initial step toward a broader settlement.
“While an important breakthrough, this agreement marks really the beginning rather than the end of the process to try to end the war and address Iran’s nuclear capabilities,” UBS said in a report.
Several “sticky points” still need to be resolved, such as Israel’s campaign in Lebanon, Adel Abdel Ghafar, a senior fellow of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, told CNBC’s “The China Connection.”
“Otherwise, there is a scenario we potentially may go back to a conflict, although both sides at this stage want to avoid that,” he said.
Despite lingering uncertainty, the agreement has helped ease disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, where shipping had been affected both by Iranian attacks and the U.S. Navy’s blockade of Iran’s ports and coastal areas under Trump’s direction.
The easing of shipping disruptions could benefit economies that rely heavily on imported oil, as lower oil prices may help contain inflation and reduce pressure on central banks to raise interest rates, David Roche, a strategist at Quantum Strategy, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia”.
“Beyond that, this is a really bad deal,” Roche said, noting that it puts the Iranians in a stronger position in the Gulf and limits external interference in the country’s domestic affairs.
“Iran is going to make the Middle East very unstable, that’s bad in the long term,” Roche said. He added that Israel was unlikely to accept the agreement.
“Iranians, I will predict you confidently, will never, never abandon their nuclear ambitions,” he added.
The interim agreement has also drawn criticism from some who argue that the U.S. conceded “too much” to Iran, prompting both Trump and Vance to defend the deal.
“The United States isn’t giving up a cent of money to Iran,” Vance said in defense of Trump’s approach.
Trump also pushed back against critics on Truth Social on Thursday.
“These fools, who think I haven’t been tough enough on Iran, when the Stock Market Just Hit A RECORD HIGH, and Oil prices are ‘tumbling’ down, are either jealous, bad people, or stupid,” Trump wrote.
