As the World Cup group stage reaches its final day, the picture is still crowded: roughly eight teams remain in contention for the last four places in the round of 32.
Co-hosts United States, Canada and Mexico are already through, joining a list of qualified teams that includes France, Germany, Spain, Portugal, Brazil, Norway and several others.
The United States is set to meet Bosnia-Herzegovina on Wednesday in Santa Clara, California, while Canada travels to Southern California for a Sunday matchup with South Africa. Several other notable fixtures are also locked in, including Morocco against the Netherlands, Japan against Brazil and Norway against Ivory Coast.
Finishing third in a group does not automatically secure a place in the knockout rounds. Only the eight strongest third-place teams advance, with goal differential and then goals scored used as tiebreakers if needed.
A four-point finish — one win, one draw and one defeat — is generally enough to move on. Bosnia-Herzegovina, Sweden, Ecuador and Paraguay have already booked their spots through that route.
Scotland, backed by its fervent supporters, is still hoping for a favorable chain of results to sneak into the knockout stage, though its three-point total makes the path a long shot.
Here’s what to keep an eye on Saturday:
Group L
Panama vs. England and Croatia vs. Ghana (5 p.m. ET): England and Ghana advance with anything other than blowout losses and could still advance. Croatia gets through with a win or a draw, while Panama has already been eliminated.
Group K
Colombia vs. Portugal and Congo vs. Uzbekistan (7:30 p.m. ET): Portugal advances with a draw and finishes first in the group with a win, while Colombia has already advanced and is atop the group by beating or tying Portugal. Congo is in with a win or draw but out with a loss, and Uzbekistan has long odds and likely needs to win in a romp.
Group J
Algeria vs. Austria and Jordan vs. Argentina (10 p.m. ET): Barring a multigoal loss by Croatia against Ghana earlier, the winner of Algeria-Austria advances and the loser still has a chance, while a draw would get Austria in and probably Algeria, too. Argentina has won the group, while Jordan has already been eliminated.
Here are the round of 32 matchups already set:
US vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina, July 1
The Americans had their powerful momentum from two consecutive victories stalled in the loss to Turkey. But in the knockout round, they’ll face a Bosnia-Herzegovina that is 62nd in the FIFA rankings — the lowest-ranked World Cup qualifier from Europe. Bosnia finished third in Group B with four points. U.S. star Christian Pulisic entered as a substitute in the second half against Turkey. He had not played since leaving the opening win over Paraguay at halftime with a calf injury. “We play every game like a knockout game,” said U.S. midfielder Sebastian Berhalter, who scored against Turkey. “You saw that in our intensity and the way we worked. For us, it’s keep doing what we’ve been doing.”
South Africa vs. Canada, June 28
These nations have already made history. It’ll be the first time both are in the knockout stage of the World Cup. Canada advanced as runner-up in Group B with four points — one win, one draw and one loss. South Africa was runner-up in Group A, also with four points, including a surprising win over South Korea.
Brazil vs. Japan, June 29
Japan advanced as Group F runner-up with a hard fought 1-1 draw against Sweden and the Samurai Blue’s reward is a knockout match against five-time World Cup champion Brazil. It’ll be a full-circle moment for Japan, which brought in Brazilian great Zico in 1991 to professionalize the country’s new domestic league and support Japan’s successful bid to co-host the World Cup in 2002. Now, the Japanese have a chance to show how far they’ve come against a country that has set the standard.
Netherlands vs. Morocco, June 29
The Netherlands won Group F after a draw with Japan and outscoring Sweden and Tunisia by a combined 8-2. Morocco went unbeaten to finish second in Group C in pursuit of becoming the first African winner of the World Cup. Morocco reached the semifinals four years ago in Qatar.
France vs. Sweden, June 30
France came in as the tournament favorite and remains it after winning all three of its group games to set up a matchup against Sweden, which had a 5-1 win, a 5-1 loss and a draw.
Germany vs. Paraguay, June 29
Germany comes into the knockout stage off a similarly low-key late defeat as the U.S., having already clinched its group with little to play for. Germany is a significant favorite against Paraguay, which lost to the U.S. 4-1 in its opener but steadied itself enough to move on.
Australia vs. Egypt, July 3
This may be one of the most evenly matched round of 32 games, after Australia beat Turkey, lost to the U.S and drew with Paraguay. Egypt got through as the second-place team in Group G after a late goal by Iran on Friday night was called back for offside.
Argentina vs. Cape Verde, July 3
Defending champion Argentina faces the smallest country to qualify for the knockout stage at a World Cup. Unsurprisingly, Cape Verde goes in as a massive underdog.
Brazil vs. Japan, June 29
After an opening draw against Morocco, Brazil won its next two by 3-0 scores, with Vinícius Júnior scoring to silence critics and Neymar returning from injury. Japan has a couple of draws and a 4-0 rout of Tunisia to show for itself so far.
Norway vs. Ivory Coast, June 30
It would have taken beating favored France for Norway to win Group I. Instead, coach Ståle Solbakken opted to rest Erling Haaland and all but one starter. That sets up a matchup against the Ivory Coast at the Dallas Cowboys’ stadium in Arlington, Texas, on Tuesday.
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