It may feel early on the calendar, but in NFL terms, it is already go time. The season is arriving, and fantasy football managers are either locking in for season-long drafts, jumping into best ball contests that are already moving at full speed, or plotting a futures bet, parlay card, or big swing in DFS.
With that in mind, this is an early breakdown of the DraftKings Week 1 main slate. We will get into season-long draft preparation and DraftKings cash-game strategy next week, but for now, the focus is squarely on the tournament slate.
Consider this both a first look and a quick reset on how to approach DFS GPP contests, where leverage, ownership, correlation and embracing uncertainty can matter just as much as projections.
Week 1 Main Slate Games
The biggest reality is simple: it is Week 1. Depth charts have shifted, new players are stepping into major roles and coaching staffs across the league are preparing to reveal play-calling tendencies we have not yet seen in meaningful games.
Even after three weeks of preseason action, there is still plenty we do not know. That uncertainty is exactly what makes Week 1 intriguing for DFS tournaments. In other words: this is the time to get uncomfortable and get creative.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals, -3.5, 51.5 o/u
New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions, -7.0, 49.5 o/u
Baltimore Ravens, -4.0 @ Indianapolis Colts, 48.5 o/u
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles, -4.5, 47.5 o/u
Chicago Bears, -2.5 @ Carolina Panthers, 45.5 o/u
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Chargers, -11.5, 45.5
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings, pk, 45.5 o/u
Buffalo Bills, -1.0 @ Houston Texans, 44.5 o/u
Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers, -3.0, 41.5 o/u
Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars, -7.5, 40.5 o/u
Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas Raiders, -3.5, 40.5 o/u
New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans, -3.0, 38.5 o/u
Line Movements
Because this is such an early forecast, we want to keep a close eye on line movements. A sharp movement one way or another will help us determine who Vegas thinks has made improvements or lost some steam.
Game Stacking
Ideally, we want to stack games with a predicted total of 48 points or more. So far, this is three games.
TAMPA, FLORIDA – DECEMBER 18: Joe Burrow #9 of the Cincinnati Bengals recovers a fumble during the second quarter in the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium on December 18, 2022 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images)
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- Tampa Bay @ Cincinnati, 51.5
- New Orleans Saints @ Detroit, 49.5
- Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts, 48.5
Two of the games are being played indoors. One of the teams will be playing under a new coaching regime, and one team has a quarterback coming back from a substantial injury (albeit with a new contract).
Implied Total
PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA – JANUARY 11: Jalen Hurts #1 of the Philadelphia Eagles yells before the NFC Wild Card Playoff game against the San Francisco 49ers at Lincoln Financial Field on January 11, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
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The rule of thumb is that when the team total is 27 or more points, you want to target their offensive players.
For week one, this currently includes:
- Los Angeles Chargers, 34.25
- Detroit Lions, 31.5
- Baltimore Ravens, 28.5
- Philadelphia Eagles, 28.25
- Jacksonville Jaguars, 27.25
Tendencies
This is game one of a new season. Preseason isn’t much help. So, all that we have to go on is the offensive tendencies of last year, offensive losses, and acquisitions of the teams. It’s not much, but it’s something.
Losses/Acquisitons
- The Chargers getting their offensive line back is huge. The return of a healthy Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, who missed the entire 2025 season, cannot be overstated. Without Slater and a limited Alt last season, the Chargers finished last in pass block win rate (53.9%) and next to last in run block win rate (68.9%).
When last seen together on the field in 2024, Slater was Pro Football Focus’ second-highest-graded tackle and ranked 10th amongst all linemen in run block win rate. Alt ranked seventh in pass block win rate and 14th in run block win rate among 80 qualified tackles.
INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – OCTOBER 27: Justin Herbert #10 and Rashawn Slater #70 of the Los Angeles Chargers walk off the field after their 26-8 win against the New Orleans Saints at SoFi Stadium on October 27, 2024 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
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- The Ravens go under the ‘loss’ column. How will the loss of center Tyler Linderbaum affect quarterback Lamar Jackson and the run game? Also, the loss of long-time head coach John Harbaugh will have the team looking different under new coach Jesse Minter and offensive coordinator Declan Doyle, but how different?
- The Eagles have lost receiver A.J. Brown and acquired a crop of receivers whose skill set differs from what the Hurts-Brown connection relied upon.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be playing without Mike Evans.
2025 Offensive Tendencies (stats from teamranking.com and playerprofiler.com )
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: T15th in passing attempts per game 32.8; last three games average dropped to 30.7, and averaged 32.3 passing attempts on the road.
QB, Baker Mayfield: seventh in passing attempts (543), sixth in deep ball attempts (4.1/g), seventh in passing touchdowns, 26 (4.8% rate), and 10th in interceptable passes with 15 (0.9%). Mayfield averaged 3.24 rushing attempts per game, was 33rd in designed runs (0.12), but he was ninth in scrambles per game with 2.47.
WR1, Emeka Egbuka: was ninth among wide receivers in targets with 124 and second in deep targets averaging 1.6/g. He was on the field for a 79.3% snap share, finishing the season 20th in receiving yards and finished the season with six total touchdowns.
Slot, Chris Godwin: Last season, Godwin was returning from injury. He played in only nine games.
The Buccaneers averaged 27.8 rushing attempts per game and 114.5 rushing yards per game. The rushing attack was led by Bucky Irving, who only played in 10 games and will be entering this season recovering from a shoulder injury.
Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals were second in passing attempts last season (37.6), with their last three games dipping 1.6 attempts per game. At home, they averaged 40.6 passing attempts per game.
QB, Joe Burrow: Burrow only played in eight games last season. He had 259 passing attempts and 17 passing touchdowns in those eight games.
CINCINNATI, OHIO – JUNE 15: Ja’Marr Chase #1 of the Cincinnati Bengals participates in a drill during Mandatory Minicamp on June 15, 2021 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
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WR1, Ja’Marr Chase: Chase played in 16 games last season. He led the league in targets (185), was fourth in receiving yards (88.3/g) and second in yards after catch (3.5 p/t). He finished the season with eight touchdowns.
WR2, Tee Higgins: Higgins played in 15 games last season. He was on the field for an 83.8% snap share, on the receiving end of 98 targets, and averaged 56.4 receiving yards per game. Higgins finished with 11 total touchdowns.
The Bengals were 29th in rushing attempts (22.4/g) and 29th in rushing yards per game with 93.6. Their lead back, Chase Brown, had 232 rushing attempts, averaged 4.4 yards per carry, and finished the season with 1019 rushing yards. He also added 69 receptions on 88 targets for 4337 receiving yards. Brown also finished the season with 11 touchdowns.
New Orleans Saints: The Saints passed the ball on 59.53% of their plays. The total dropped to 55.78% when playing away from home. They were eighth in passing attempts per game with 34.8, with the total dropping to 30.4 attempts in away games.
NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA – OCTOBER 26: Tyler Shough #6 of the New Orleans Saints looks to pass against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the third quarter in the game at Caesars Superdome on October 26, 2025 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images)
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QB, Tyler Shough: Shough earned the starting position in Week 8 of last season. From that point on, he averaged 216.7 passing yards per game, had 10 passing touchdowns and nine interceptable passes. Shough also was 12th among quarterbacks in carry share, averaging 4.09 carries per game, was 11th in designed runs per game, averaging 1.55, and added three rushing touchdowns.
WR1, Chris Olave: Olave played in 16 games, was fifth among wide receivers in targets with 156, while being on the field for a 73.6% snap share. He averaged 72.7 receiving yards per game and finished the season with nine total touchdowns.
The Saints have a revamped offense for head coach Kellen Moore to tinker with, including adding running back Travis Etienne, drafting rookie receiver Jordan Tyson and acquiring veteran tight end Noah Fant.
Detroit Lions: The Lions will be playing with a new offensive coordinator, Drew Petzing presumably calling plays after head coach Dan Campbell took over play-calling duties from then-offensive coordinator John Morton in Week 10 of last season.
Last season, the Lions finished 10th in passing attempts per game, with 34.2, and had only a small increase when playing at home, with 34.8. They were, however, third in passing yards per game, averaging 254.2 and increased again by almost a first down at home, averaging 263.8 passing yards per game.
QB, Jared Goff: While much is made of Goff’s home versus away splits, the difference last year was nominal, where the most glaring difference is his passing yards average.
MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA – OCTOBER 20: Jared Goff #16 of the Detroit Lions celebrates with Amon-Ra St. Brown #14 after a touchdown in the second quarter of a game against the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium on October 20, 2024 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)
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PASS ATTEMPTS: Home 277: Away 301
COMPLETIONS: Home 191: Away 202
PASS YARDS: Home 2,235: Away 2,329
AVG YARDS/ATTEMPT: Home 8.1: Away 7.7
TD PASSES: Home 18: Away 16
INTERCEPTIONS: Home 3: Away 5
Stats courtesy ESPN.com
WR1, Amon-Ra 8.3 per game while being on the field for 86.2% snap share. St. Brown was fifth among receivers in receiving yards, averaging 82.4 a game, third in yards after catch with 3.3p/t, fourth in receptions, and finished with 11 touchdowns.
WR2. Jameson Williams: Williams saw an uptick in production when Campbell took over play calling. In totality, he finished with 101 targets and 65 receptions while being on the field for a 91.3% snap share. Williams averaged 65.7 receiving yards per game, was 10th in yards after catch with 433 total yards, and had seven touchdowns.
WR2, Isaac TeSlaa: TeSlaa is best known last season for his six touchdowns coming on only a 39.9% snap share and a 43.8% target share. TeSlaa finished with an astonishing 37.5% touchdown rate.
The Lions averaged 120.1 rushing yards last season. When playing at home, the average went up to 134.4. Now they have traded away David Montgomery to the Houston Texans; Jahmyr Gibbs is a “bell-cow” back in Detroit. Last season with Montgomery there, Gibbs averaged 14.3 carries per game, was fourth in red zone touches (64), and seventh in rushing yards per game (71.9). He was also targeted 94 times, or 5.5 targets per game, and averaged 36.2 receiving yards on his way to collecting 18 touchdowns.
The Petzing effect is real. Look for an uptick in tight end Sam Laporta’s production as well as emphasis on the run game.
Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens’ passing game was abysmal last season, in part due to quarterback Lamar Jackson’s persistent injuries. They finished last in passing attempts, averaging 24.3, a number that fell to 19.3 in their last three games and 22.4 in their away games.
QB, Lamar Jackson: Jackson spent most of last season injured. He did play in 13 games with 302 passing attempts, averaging 196.1 passing yards per game. He had 21 passing touchdowns and six interceptable passes, while passing for the third most yards per attempt (8.4).
While he had an 18.5% carry share, it resulted in an average of 5.15 carries per game with 2.00 designated runs. Jackson was 11th in scrambles (2.31 per game) and had only two rushing touchdowns while averaging 5.21 yards per carry.
Slot, Zay Flowers: Flowers had a 99.1% route participation rate, was eighth in yards after catch (458), and was on the receiving end of 118 targets and 86 receptions while averaging 71.2 receiving yards per game. He finished with six total touchdowns.
WR1 Rashod Bateman: Bateman was inept in 13 games. He had 39 targets, 19 receptions, 224 yards, and two touchdowns.
The Ravens acquired receivers Elijah Sarratt and Ja’Kobi Lane in the 2026 NFL Draft.
While the passing game suffered, the run game in Baltimore held its own. The Ravens were fifth in rushing attempts per game (29.8), a number that increased significantly in their last three games (37.3) and also saw an increase when playing away from home (30.9).
ARLINGTON, TEXAS – SEPTEMBER 22: Derrick Henry #22 of the Baltimore Ravens rushes for a first down against Caelen Carson #21 of the Dallas Cowboys during the third quarter at AT&T Stadium on September 22, 2024 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images)
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RB, Derrick Henry: Henry was fourth among all running backs in carries, averaging 18.1 per game, third in red zone touches (65), and had the second most rushing yards per game average (93.8). His 71% opportunity share landed him with 21 targets, 15 receptions, and 16 total touchdowns.
Indianapolis Colts: The Colts are, to quote Winston Churchill, “…a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma.” Their season last year was a tale of two halves. Their quarterback Daniel Jones suffered a torn right Achilles in December, while playing with a fractured fibula in his left leg. They paid receiver Alec Pierce a grip. Last season, he was responsible for 47 receptions on 84 targets for 1003 yards and six touchdowns, while letting Michael Pittman go to Pittsburgh with his 111 targets, 80 receptions, 784 yards, and seven touchdowns from last year.
After being on fire for the first 10 games (not counting Week 9 against the Pittsburgh Steelers) of the season, running back Jonathan Taylor cooled considerably, posting only two games above 100 rushing yards and only three touchdowns in the last seven games.
