Progressive challenger Abdul El-Sayed has won Tuesday’s turbulent Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, NBC News projected.
El-Sayed’s narrow defeat of Rep. Haley Stevens marks the clearest evidence yet that the Democratic Party’s progressive wing is gaining ground, even as questions about its liabilities remain.
His roughly one-point victory is also likely to intensify doubts about whether his appeal to the party’s base can carry into the fall campaign, with Democrats needing to pick up four seats to take control of the Senate.
A race that polling had suggested could become a double-digit blowout instead ended as a tense cliffhanger, leaving many Democrats both nervous and frustrated. With more than 90 percent of ballots counted, The New York Times estimated El-Sayed was on track to finish ahead by 1.5 percentage points.
Even before the primary was called, Republicans were making clear they welcomed the prospect of facing El-Sayed, a 41-year-old doctor who was born and raised in Michigan.
El-Sayed, a father of two, is Muslim and the son of Egyptian immigrant parents.
Republican nominee Mike Rogers was recorded saying he would be “in good shape” in a general election matchup against El-Sayed.
Some Democrats who acknowledge El-Sayed’s political gifts are also warning that he may struggle to build the wider coalition needed to prevail in November.
US Democratic Senate candidate from Michigan Abdul El-Sayed addresses supporters at his election night event at The Majestic Theatre in Detroit, Michigan, on August 4, 2026.
Democratic candidate for US Senate in Michigan Abdul El-Sayed visits a polling place as residents cast their votes on August 4th, 2026 in Dearborn, Michigan
Haley Stevens, candidate for Michigan’s open US Senate seat, speaks to the press after casting her ballot at Baldwin Public Library on August 4th, 2026 in Birmingham, Michigan
Oakland County voters cast their ballots in the 2026 Michigan primary election at Royal Oak High School in Royal Oak, Michigan, United States on August 4, 2026
‘He enters the general election trailing his Republican opponent in the gold standard MI poll, in a state Biden won in 2020 while other Democrats are posting leads over Republicans in states Trump won by double digits,’ wrote Adam Jentleson, a Democratic strategist, forecasting what soon awaits El-Sayed.
‘I believe Abdul can win because he is so talented. But it is also not irrational to worry,’ he added.
El-Sayed’s lead had shriveled through the night as votes crawled in from Wayne County, home to Detroit and the state’s biggest prize.
Addressing a restless crowd early Wednesday, El-Sayed initially conceded the moment had not arrived.
‘If we come through this, when we come through this, inshallah,’ he said. ‘We’ll have taken $70 million on the chin and kept fighting back.’
The call from NBC News was delivered just around 2 am eastern time after his speech.
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In earlier remarks to her own supporters, Stevens emphasized the stakes, highlighting Republican efforts to maintain control of the U.S. Senate to advance Trump’s agenda, while sharing, ‘I am feeling good. I am feeling fired up, and you should be too.’
Stevens was notably joined on stage by Congresswoman Hillary Scholten, a fellow Michigander who serves with her on Capitol Hill in Washington and who has said she would be uncomfortable supporting El-Sayed as the Democratic nominee.
El-Sayed now faces Rogers, who ran unopposed Tuesday night and will not be burdened by uniting his party behind him.
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Will El-Sayed’s progressive platform unite or divide Democrats in the fight for Michigan’s Senate seat?
Rogers is not a novelty opponent. He came within 19,000 votes of Elissa Slotkin in 2024, losing 48.6 to 48.3 — just three-tenths of a point — in the same cycle Trump carried Michigan.
This year’s Senate primary in Michigan was defined by a pair of candidates representing opposite polars of their party.
El-Sayed pulled ahead of Stevens, a current member of the US House of Representatives who is aligned with more moderate factions of the Democratic Party and was endorsed by Governor Gretchen Whitmer and South Carolina Congressman James Clyburn.
But disproportionate spending in the contest drew significant national attention.
Outside groups poured nearly $62 million into backing Stevens, a roughly nine-to-one spending advantage over El-Sayed.
Half of it, $32 million, came from AIPAC’s super PAC, the largest single-race investment in the group’s history and more than any outside organization has spent on a federal Democratic primary this cycle.
While Democrats spent an estimated $98.2 million tearing each other apart, making this the third most expensive Senate primary in American history, Rogers ran unopposed and banked it.
Stevens had the machine behind her too.
Retiring Senator Gary Peters endorsed her, as did Whitmer, whose own standing among Democrats has slipped this year. Earlier polling showed Stevens well clear. A batch of recent surveys had El-Sayed ahead by double digits.
Stevens drew higher-than-expected support not only in rural areas but also in Detroit’s heavily African American neighborhoods, while El-Sayed ran away with it in the Muslim areas of Hamtramck and Dearborn.
In the final days of the campaign, Stevens turned on her opponent, accusing him of blaming Jewish Americans for his problems.
‘You will lose to Mike Rogers by talking like this,’ Stevens said Thursday, after El-Sayed dared AIPAC to ‘come for me.’
He arrives in November carrying endorsements from the left’s biggest names: Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. But he’ll also need to win over 47 percent of Michigan Democrats who voted against him.
During the primary, El-Sayed has vowed to ‘stand up to greedy landlords and corporate profiteers’ and campaigned for ‘Medicare for All’, though his wife’s psychiatric practice takes only out-of-pocket payments.
The seat, open since Peters announced his retirement, is rated a toss-up by the Cook Political Report.
The win, however small the margin, extends a national run of progressive scalps.
Three candidates backed by socialist New York mayor Zohran Mamdani took their primaries in June, among them Brad Lander, who once ran against Mamdani for mayor and who ousted Dan Goldman as the congressman sought a third term.
Adriano Espaillat, the 71-year-old chairman of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, was toppled by Mamdani-backed Darializa Avila Chevalier. In Colorado, 29-year-old Democratic socialist Melat Kiros unseated Diana DeGette after nearly 30 years in Congress.
El-Sayed says a victory in November would hand him leverage over the 2028 presidential primary, and the calendar agrees.
Nine days before Michigan voted, the Democratic National Committee’s rules panel awarded the state one of just six coveted slots in the early window of the 2028 nominating contest, meaning he will hold a megaphone in a state that votes before Super Tuesday on March 7, 2028.
