KYIV, Ukraine — When Russia launches a ballistic missile toward Ukraine, air-defense crews have only a tiny window to react. In some cases, they have mere minutes — or even seconds — to identify the incoming weapon and try to shoot it down.
That compressed timeline has made Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities increasingly vulnerable to destructive strikes. Ukrainian officials say these missiles descend so quickly and at such a steep angle that only the U.S.-made Patriot air-defense system can reliably intercept them. The problem, Kyiv says, is that Ukraine does not have enough Patriot batteries or interceptor missiles to cover the country.
Ballistic missiles differ sharply from cruise missiles, which fly more like unmanned aircraft. They are launched like rockets, climb high, and then plunge toward their targets at several times the speed of sound.
That trajectory leaves defenders with little time to detect the threat, calculate its path and destroy the warhead before impact. The danger was underscored by the latest barrage on Ukraine’s capital, which hit a brewery, a warehouse and a mail-sorting facility. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Wednesday that at least 17 people were killed and dozens more were injured.
Once a warhead begins its final descent, “it’s very, very steep and it’s going at a ridiculous speed,” said Thomas Withington, an electronic warfare specialist at the Royal United Services Institute. He likened the challenge to trying to catch a ball: the faster it is moving, the harder it is to stop.
Russia’s primary ground-launched ballistic missile is the Iskander-M, while the Kinzhal is an air-launched example. Moscow has also used S-300 and S-400 air-defense missiles against ground targets. Another weapon, the Zircon, is technically a hypersonic anti-ship cruise missile, but its extreme speed creates interception challenges similar to those posed by ballistic missiles.
Here is why defending Ukraine against some of Russia’s most dangerous missiles remains so difficult.
Patriot system offers some protection
The most advanced Patriot system delivered to Ukraine is built to counter high-speed missile threats. Its PAC-3 interceptor does not simply detonate near an incoming target; it is designed to maneuver into the warhead and destroy it by direct impact. To succeed, the system must track the missile, forecast its flight path and fire within minutes, with the final intercept sometimes coming down to seconds.
Patriots are currently the only system in Ukrainian service able to intercept the Russian Iskander-M, S-400 and Zircon missiles, according to Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yurii Ihnat. The United States and its allies operate other anti-ballistic systems, including THAAD and sea-based Aegis defenses, but they have not been provided to Ukraine.
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Even Patriot protection is not guaranteed. When a Patriot battery is absent, out of position or short of missiles, most other Ukrainian defenses cannot substitute for it.
Ukraine has too few batteries to shield every city. Russia combines ballistic missiles with cruise missiles, drones and decoys, forcing defenders to track many threats and ration scarce interceptors.
Shortage of interceptors is only a part of a global problem
The interceptor shortage has become more acute as the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has consumed large numbers of Patriot and THAAD interceptors. An analysis by The Associated Press estimated that the U.S. Patriot inventory had fallen by at least 65% from its prewar level, while the Pentagon said it retained a deep arsenal.
Production cannot immediately close the gap. Lockheed Martin delivered more than 600 PAC-3 MSE interceptors in 2025 and is working toward annual capacity of 2,000 by the end of 2030. NATO says Europe’s first Patriot missile production facility is expected to open in September in Germany.
Political signals from Washington have also shifted. At a NATO summit last month in Turkey, President Donald Trump said the United States would give Ukraine a license to produce Patriots. About three weeks later, he said he had not made a final decision. Even with a license, officials and experts told AP that starting production in Ukraine would take years.
Ukraine aims at the archer instead of the arrow
Ukraine is also trying to destroy Russian missile launchers and infrastructure before missiles can be fired — shooting the archer instead of the arrow.
People familiar with the discussions told AP that Zelenskyy asked Trump to help secure Elon Musk’s permission for Ukrainian forces to use Starlink communications for targeting inside Russia, where Musk has restricted the service.
Such access could help Ukrainian drones hunt launchers and related infrastructure, reducing the number of missiles Patriot batteries must face. The request had not been publicly confirmed by the White House, the Ukrainian Embassy or SpaceX.
Kyiv is also developing Freya, a proposed Ukrainian-led, lower-cost anti-ballistic system intended to reduce dependence on Patriots. Ukraine and nine European countries formed a coalition in July to pursue a shared missile-defense capability, with Zelenskyy saying they could jointly develop a mass-produced system within 12 months. Freya remains under development, and it is unclear when it could become operational.
Following the most recent Russian ballistic attack on Kyiv, Zelenskyy said Ukraine received only one-third as many air-defense missiles in the first half of 2026 as in the same period last year. He said Ukraine’s partners that are unwilling to increase interceptor deliveries immediately should instead impose new sanctions, noting that a significant share of Russia’s ballistic missile production has been untouched by sanctions.
