Iran is preparing to intensify its activity around the Strait of Hormuz in a bid to increase political pressure on Donald Trump before the midterm elections, according to sources inside Tehran and analysts who track the region.
Trump acknowledged last week that Washington had begun to “low-key” its peace efforts with Iran after a proposed ceasefire agreement fell apart.
With the midterms now less than three months away, the White House faces a growing domestic headache as national gas prices remain above $4 a gallon on average, with little immediate relief in sight.
Jonathan Wachtel, a former U.S. diplomat, told Our News Outlet that Iran’s leadership pays close attention not only to America’s military strength, but also to the timing of its political cycle.
Two Iranian sources familiar with internal planning in Tehran said the upcoming midterm elections are viewed as a strategic vulnerability that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps may try to use to its advantage.
Retired Gen. Jack Keane said Iran appears to be betting that Trump will be reluctant to launch another major military response before voters head to the polls in November.
“My gut feel is that they’re likely going to get more aggressive because they don’t believe the President will do much prior to the midterms in terms of military actions,” Keane told Fox News.
Keane cautioned, however, that Tehran has misread Trump before, arguing that the President remains “totally capable” of using the military power available to him to shut down Iranian aggression decisively.
A small boat sails past cargo ships and other commercial vessels anchored in the Strait of Hormuz off Bandar Abbas, Iran, Wednesday, August 5
Wachtel agreed ‘this is a high–risk gamble,’ adding that ‘major confrontations often begin when one side misunderstands the other’s willingness to respond.’
Jonathan Schanzer, executive director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Our News Outlet: ‘The regime understands that this war is not wildly popular with segments of the Republican Party and much of the American left.
‘Oil prices and the reported munitions crisis have added to Trump’s political challenges.’
Schanzer warned, however, that Tehran’s strategy could backfire catastrophically: ‘The regime believes it can exacerbate those problems by maintaining the current course or even escalating.
‘The question for the regime is: at what cost? The regime is brittle, bankrupt and weak. By extending the crisis or escalating, the risk of regime collapse is real. They are playing with fire.’
Trump claimed earlier this week that the US currently has ‘total’ control of the Strait of Hormuz, even as oil prices remain sky high.
Iran has meanwhile claimed it maintains the upper hand in the conflict, seizing on recent reports that Trump secretly switched planes to avoid an assassination threat as he departed last month’s NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey.
The Islamic Republic’s embassy in South Africa posted a graphic depicting Trump inside a catering box alongside food items. The embassy’s official X account – which is verified on its website and frequently produces viral content highlighted by Iranian state news – warned that Trump ‘will be hidden in a trash can before long.’
Iran has mocked U.S. President Donald Trump over his secret aircraft switch during a visit to Turkey, claiming the extraordinary security operation showed his fear of Iran’s military power
A catering truck is parked next to Air Force One, before Trump’s departure from Ankara, July 8
A catering truck is parked at Air Force One Ankara, Turkey, July 8
Iranian state television also targeted the incident, labeling it a ‘humiliation’ for the president.
‘Again, Trump, with his new scandal, has become the top subject in the US media these days,’ a state TV presenter declared. ‘A scandal stemming from fear of Iran’s military power, a power that caused Trump, last month, while returning from Turkey, to secretly switch his plane.’
Tehran forcefully rejected Trump’s assertions of American dominance in the region, maintaining that the strategic choke point operates strictly under Iranian authority.
Hossein Taeb, head of Iran’s Basij paramilitary unit, asserted today that the Strait of Hormuz remains under the direct ‘management and control’ of the Islamic Republic, adding that Iran is continuing its naval operations in complete security.
Taeb claimed the US had sought to disrupt Iran’s regional popularity by launching another war in the Strait, but insisted Washington had failed once again despite claiming Iran possessed neither an air force nor a navy.
Trump, however, doubled down in a post on Truth Social, declaring that the US would ‘keep’ control of the vital shipping lane, describing the American naval blockade as a ‘Wall of steel’ and insisting there was ‘nothing Iran can do about it.’
Trump further claimed that Iran has ‘no Navy’ and ‘no Air Force,’ that its remaining soldiers go unpaid, and that the country’s leadership remains ‘uncertain, at best.’
