Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has moved to the front of the field among potential 2028 Democratic presidential contenders on prediction markets, overtaking California Gov. Gavin Newsom.
The 36-year-old New York progressive, widely known as AOC, has seen a recent burst of backing on online markets including Kalshi and Polymarket.
Her rise has pushed Newsom out of the top slot, with Kalshi placing her chances of winning the 2028 Democratic nomination at 18 percent and Polymarket putting her at 19 percent.
Newsom had been the market favorite since the betting lines were first launched.
Ocasio-Cortez’s momentum may reflect growing energy on the party’s left flank, as Democratic Socialist candidates gain traction in races across the country.
Still, the shift in prediction odds stands in sharp contrast to what traditional polling currently shows.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris remains the leader in national surveys measuring support for the next Democratic presidential nominee, according to polls released this month.
A Rasmussen poll found Harris with 37 percent support among likely Democratic primary voters, an increase from 34 percent in May.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is now leading the pack of likely 2028 Democratic presidential nominees, surging past Gavin Newsom in the prediction odds, after recent viral posts (left and right)
California Governor Gavin Newsom, who has led in prediction markets about the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee since they were established, has recently garnered less support
The same poll showed Newsom had 14 percent, former Transportation Secretary and 2020 presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg had the backing of 10 percent of respondents and AOC had 9 percent.
None of the Democratic hopefuls have actually announced a bid for the White House.
Still, AOC has been leaning into her recent surge in popularity.
Pressed on the possibility of launching a presidential bid in the next contest earlier this month, AOC told ABC News: ‘I haven’t ruled out the possibility.’
‘And I’m very humbled by the tremendous amount of support out there,’ she added.
What sets AOC apart from the pack of serious 2028 contenders is her social media acumen, history of pushing progressive policies as the party veers leftward and massive name recognition nationwide.
She recently went viral for her candid videos about freezing her eggs, sparking a debate online about women’s reproductive rights, as well as speculation about her private life.
AOC and her longtime partner Riley Roberts called off their engagement in February, Our News Outlet revealed last week. Neither AOC nor Roberts have publicly confirmed the breakup before her posts about fertility treatment.
Despite AOC’s support swelling on prediction markets, opinion polls asking likely Democratic primary voters who they support show that former Vice President Kamala Harris is still a favorite among party members
The New York Congresswoman raised her profile even further last year after hosting anti-Trump rallies with Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, an icon of the progressive movement
Their relationship appeared to become increasingly strained as AOC’s political career exploded while Roberts remained largely behind the scenes, sources said.
The split comes as AOC is hoping to ride a progressive wave carved out by New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani, as well as progressive candidate victories in Michigan and Minnesota, where Abdul El-Sayed and Peggy Flanagan each won contested primaries against centrist opponents.
After hosting rallies around the country last year with Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, himself a progressive icon, the New York lawmaker appears poised to receive the mantle from him.
While rallying with Sanders during their ‘Fight the Oligarchy’ tour during Trump’s first months back in office, the Senator joked that AOC was his ‘daughter,’ and the Congresswoman reciprocated, referring to him as her uncle.
