Concerns are mounting that Vladimir Putin could resort to deploying “tactical nuclear weapons” against Ukraine as frustration deepens in Moscow and prospects for diplomacy continue to fade.
According to sources, pro-escalation voices inside Russia are growing more forceful in their calls for the use of nuclear warheads, while the President weighs a range of options to intensify the conflict.
The war between Russia and Ukraine has entered a more volatile phase in recent months, with both sides stepping up attacks. Kyiv has carried out major strikes far inside Russian territory, including on key oil infrastructure.
At the same time, peace negotiations have largely broken down, leaving scant optimism in either capital that a deal to end the war is within reach.
The Kremlin has insisted it will not be forced into halting the war by Western sanctions or by Ukrainian attacks targeting Russian refineries.
Moscow has also become increasingly angered by Nato allies providing Ukraine with weapons and intelligence, prompting threats against the UK that Prime Minister Andy Burnham this week condemned as “outrageous”.
Putin has now concluded that Russia must intensify its attacks on Ukraine, three Kremlin sources told Bloomberg.
Speaking to a reporter at the weekend, he accused Ukraine of having “opened this Pandora’s box” and issued a warning to Kyiv: “Be ready to get a blowback on your most sensitive sectors of the economy.”
Fears have grown that Putin may be about to test a nuclear-powered cruise missile – dubbed the Flying Chernobyl (Pictured: A previous Burevestnik missile test in October 2019)
If Russia did deploy a nuclear weapon, it would likely be a tactic nuclear weapon, rather than a strategic missile (pictured: nuclear-capable cruise missile, Burevestnik)
For now, it is considering how it can ramp up its conventional ballistic assaults, including missile attacks on the centre of the capital, Kyiv.
But a growing number of Russian officials have concluded that Putin could eventually abandon the rules of modern warfare and hit the nuclear button, the sources said.
Tactical nuclear weapons, which are less powerful and have a shorter range, would be more likely than strategic missiles.
They would be used to gain the upper hand in a specific battlefield, rather than to decimate entire cities, like the bombs dropped by America on Japan in 1945.
Throughout the conflict, he has repeatedly flaunted the threat of nukes against Ukraine and its Western allies – even publishing maps showing strikes zones.
And if he made the call, there would be nobody to stand in his way.
Fiona Hill, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who served as a national security advisor to three US presidents including Trump in his first term, said: ‘For Putin there is no sign of collective will anywhere to resist him and so many ways in which he can grind people down.
‘This is why a concerted collective and consistent effort to resist his actions, and to engage in diplomacy, is essential.
‘He has a single-minded focus and we are all over the place.’
It was reported this week that the Putin might be abouyt to test a nuclear-powered cruise missile – dubbed the Flying Chernobyl – that can fly for days, according to analysts.
An influx of aircraft and shipping has converged in the Arctic in a telltale sign that a new experimental firing is expected of a weapon powered by its own atomic reactor, say analysts.
The ‘invincible’ Burevestnik missile – with a nickname inspired by the nuclear catastrophe that could be inflicted, much like the Chernobyl power plant explosion in 1986 – carries a nuclear warhead with an ‘unlimited range’ and is designed to fly for days at a time before striking the West, according to the Russians.
While the chance of nuclear weapons still looks remote, the only way to rule them out completely would be a swift diplomatic end to the war – something that now seems out of reach.
The US is preoccupied with the conflict in Iran, and Putin has abandoned its hope of an understanding between Donald Trump and himself that was fostered during at their summit in Alaska last August.
Russia has indicate there may be a path to peace if Ukraine hands over its ‘fortress belt’ of cities in the Donbas that have held firm since the start of armed hostilities in 2014 – but Kyiv has made clear that is not on the table.
A recent indication of the US’s feeling toward Russia came from Secretary of State Marco Rubio in June, when he said: ‘If there had been an agreement, we would have had an end to the war.’
CIA Director John Ratcliffe made a rare visit to Moscow on Tuesday for a diplomatic meeting, though it’s unclear what the focus was.
