Democrats are showing fresh strength in a series of Senate races that could decide control of Congress this November, with contests in reliably Republican territory now appearing far more competitive than expected.
New RealClearPolitics polling has Republican candidates behind Democrats in eight key Senate battlegrounds, fueling concerns inside the GOP that President Donald Trump’s party could be headed for a punishing election night.
The warning signs come as Republicans were already preparing for a tough battle to defend their House majority, a challenge made harder by the familiar midterm headwinds facing the party that controls the White House during a president’s first term.
Trump’s grip on the Republican Party, however, remains powerful. Of the 270 candidates he has endorsed so far, 261 have won their primaries, giving him a 96.7 percent success rate, according to Ballotpedia.
That tally includes recent wins by Darline Graham in South Carolina and Mike Mazzei in Oklahoma, further strengthening Trump’s endorsement record as the November midterms approach.
Still, the primary season has also delivered several setbacks, as some of Trump’s chosen candidates have fallen short despite carrying his highly sought-after backing.
Those losses include embattled Florida Congressman Cory Mills, former Commerce Department adviser Catalina Lauf and Wyoming gubernatorial hopeful Megan Degenfelder, all of whom were defeated on the same night in August.
Trump’s influence over the Republican Party remains strong, with 261 of his 270 endorsed candidates winning their primaries so far
Republican candidates are behind in states including Texas and Ohio, while wider Democratic leads in Georgia and North Carolina have raised concerns within the party
Democrats currently occupy three of the battleground seats being contested, while Republicans hold six. And aside from Georgia and North Carolina, the margins fall within what would generally be regarded as the margin of error
But holding onto the Senate is now emerging as an even bigger headache.
Republican candidates are behind in states including Texas and Ohio, while wider Democratic leads in Georgia and North Carolina have raised concerns within the party.
The latest RCP figures have Republicans trailing by 8 points in North Carolina, 7.5 points in Georgia, 2.6 points in Ohio, 2.3 points in Maine, 2 points in Alaska, 2 points in New Hampshire, 1.9 points in Texas and 1.8 points in Michigan.
Patrick Ruffini analyzed 3,312 Senate polls from the past four election cycles and found a striking pattern: 73 percent overstated the eventual Democratic margin, by an average of 3.7 points. The historical overstatement was even larger in late July, when it peaked at 5.9 points.
A glimmer of hope for Republicans comes from Iowa, where GOP Representative Ashley Hinson is narrowly ahead of Democrat Josh Turek by 1.4 points.
Democrats currently occupy three of the battleground seats being contested, while Republicans hold six. And aside from Georgia and North Carolina, the margins fall within what would generally be regarded as the margin of error.
Republicans insist the public polling could be understating their support.
‘National Republicans have been sounding the alarm that midterms are hard since last year, and we’ve been firm that not a single race should be taken for granted,’ a GOP operative involved in Senate races told the New York Post.
But there is a major difference between this election and Trump’s previous campaigns: the president himself won’t be on the ballot.
That could make it considerably harder for Republicans to bring the MAGA base to the polls, while Democrats are showing signs of strong enthusiasm.
Politico columnist Jonathan Martin, who has been traveling through the country ahead of the election, has identified the Midwest as a particularly worrying region for Republicans.
Farmers who once formed an important part of Trump’s coalition are increasingly frustrated by economic pressures.
‘He’s in serious trouble in farm country,’ Republican Senator Kevin Cramer of North Dakota told Martin.
‘He being Trump — and Trump is us. I’m not very optimistic.’
In Ohio and Iowa, Trump’s trade policies, the war with Iran and its effect on diesel and fertilizer prices, along with his decision to import foreign beef in an attempt to reduce grocery prices, have all become potential political liabilities.
And the unease is spreading beyond the Midwest.
The rising cost of living, Trump’s difficulty winning over centrists and stronger Democratic voter engagement could put Republican prospects at risk in Maine, Texas, North Carolina and Alaska.
