NEW YORK – When Hollywood turns the page to fall, the Oscar race begins in earnest.
September may have only just arrived, but the campaign trail for next March’s Academy Awards is already crowded. The season’s first major awards buzz started building back in May at the Cannes Film Festival. Now, with the fall festival circuit heating up in Venice and Telluride — and Toronto just around the corner — Oscar predictions are quickly becoming part of the movie conversation.
Plenty of major contenders have yet to arrive. Sandworms are on the horizon with “Dune: Part III.” An older Tom Cruise is coming in “Digger.” There is still a lot of cinema left to see. But for now, here is an early look at the evolving Oscar landscape, along with a few cautious predictions.
‘The Odyssey’ may not remain the best picture front-runner
For the moment, Christopher Nolan’s sweeping epic has every reason to be seen as the film to beat. His last release, “Oppenheimer,” dominated awards season, winning best picture and earning Nolan his first Oscar for directing. His position in the industry is so commanding that some Academy voters may not mind rewarding him twice in a row. Still, “The Odyssey” has not generated quite the same level of universal affection as “Oppenheimer.” And, if you enjoy niche Oscar trivia, no best picture winner has ever had Homer translators publicly push back against it — admittedly, a very specific category. More importantly, staying ahead of the pack for more than six months is a difficult task, and recent Academy history has often leaned toward smaller, more intimate films. This forecast could age badly, but at this stage, betting against the field feels risky.
New York movies are having a strong moment
This fall looks especially promising for films rooted in New York City. Several of the season’s most intriguing titles draw their personality, edge and lived-in atmosphere from the city itself. Among them is Jordan Firstman’s funny and unexpectedly heartfelt “Club Kid” (Nov. 6), which stars Firstman as a gay nightlife regular who discovers he has a child. James Gray’s “Paper Tiger” (Nov. 13) offers a gripping Queens-set story about family ties and 1980s mafia corruption. “The Only Living Pickpocket” (Oct. 23) features John Turturro as an aging thief navigating a dramatically changed New York. “Once Upon a Time in Harlem” (Oct. 16), a long-awaited documentary, revisits a 1972 gathering of Harlem Renaissance icons. And John Wilson’s “The History of Concrete” (Sept. 18) turns a wandering meditation on concrete and creativity into something unexpectedly delightful.
Malkovich, Malkovich and more Malkovich
Get ready to be reminded of this fact: John Malkovich has never won an Oscar. The twice-nominated actor (for “Places in the Heart” and “In the Line of Fire”) may have his best shot yet with his performance in Martin McDonagh’s “Wild Horse Nine.” In it, he stars alongside Sam Rockwell as an aging CIA agent who’s grown tired of keeping secrets on a trip to Easter Island in the early 1970s. Like Malkovich’s best roles, his performance is full of wit, soulfulness and profanity.
The ‘Obsession’ sensation isn’t over yet
Curry Barker’s “One Wish Willow” horror movie has already set plenty of records, including being one of the most profitable movies ever made. But Focus Features is also preparing an awards campaign for the low-budget hit that could have “Obsession” competing in many of the top Oscar categories, including best picture and best actress for Inde Navarrette. It won’t be the only early 2026 release to factor in the mix, though. Expect to hear more from Christopher Miller and Phil Lord’s “Project Hail Mary” and Olivia Wilde’s “The Invite,” among others.
At the Oscars, international film is here to stay
As in recent years, many of the top Academy Awards contenders are sure to hail from overseas. The makeup of the academy has grown more international in recent years, and global nominees have increasingly reflected that. Some of this year’s standouts include:
— “All of a Sudden” (Nov. 25), an expansively tender Paris-set drama from Japanese filmmaker Ryusuke Hamaguchi (“Drive My Car”)
— “Fjord” (Oct. 9), Cristian Mungiu’s Palme d’Or-winning Norway-set drama about political polarization
— “La Bola Negra” (Oct. 16), an epic that spans the interconnected lives of three gay men in Spain
— “Minotaur” (Nov. 20), Russian filmmaker Andrey Zvyagintsev’s drama about betrayal and murder in Putin’s Russia
— “Possible Love” (Oct. 23), Lee Chang-dong’s awaited follow-up to 2018’s acclaimed “Burning,” about two couples making a documentary
— “Fatherland” (Oct. 23), Paweł Pawlikowski’s exquisite black-and-white drama about postwar Germany
— “Clarissa” (Dec. 11), Arie and Chuko Esiri‘s shimmering Nigeria-set reinterpretation of Virginia Woolf’s “Mrs. Dalloway”
