Polls across the United States are delivering an increasingly difficult outlook for Republican candidates heading into this year’s midterm elections.
Fresh statewide surveys in Alaska and Texas—where Republicans currently hold the seats at stake—show Democratic contenders gaining ground and, in some cases, moving into the lead.
An AARP survey of Alaska’s Senate contest released Thursday found Democrat Mary Peltola ahead of Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan among likely voters, 46 percent to 41 percent.
North Carolina is also showing a strong Democratic advantage, with former Gov. Roy Cooper holding a double-digit lead over former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley.
A Carolina Journal poll released Thursday gave Cooper a 15-point advantage in the Senate race.
North Carolina has not elected a Democratic U.S. senator since Kay Hagan, who served from 2009 through 2015. Cooper, however, remains a well-known figure in the state after serving two terms as governor from 2017 to 2025.
Mally Smith, a Democratic strategist and former senior political and coalitions adviser to Kamala Harris’ 2024 campaign in North Carolina, attributed the Republican Party’s struggles to President Trump.
“Democrats are winning in places like my home state of North Carolina because we are nominating great candidates like Gov. Roy Cooper and Trump failed on his central campaign promise to lower inflation,” Smith said. She added that “inflation is up while he and the corrupt Mar-a-Lago mafia continue to enrich themselves.”
Former Democratic Congresswoman Mary Peltola and incumbent Republican Senator Dan S. Sullivan are facing off in Alaska’s U.S. Senate race.
Former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper holds a double-digit lead over former RNC Chairman Michael Whatley in North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race.
In Texas, Democrats are leading Republicans in statewide contests for the U.S. Senate, governor and even Texas Railroad Commissioner, according to current polling.
Democrat James Talarico, a sitting Texas state legislator, has edged ahead of Republican Ken Paxton, the state’s attorney general, in the Senate contest.
A new survey from ReconMR and the Siena Research Institute put Talarico six points ahead of Paxton, 49 percent to 43 percent.
The poll also produced a striking result in the governor’s race: Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, seeking an unprecedented fourth term, trailed Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa.
The Texas Democratic Party celebrated the findings, noting that the numbers “mark the first time a Democrat has ever led Abbott in public polling in an election year.”
Texas last elected a Democratic governor when Ann Richards left office in 1995. The state’s most recent Democratic U.S. senator was Bob Krueger, who was appointed by Richards in 1993 and served for less than a year.
Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton in Texas’ U.S. Senate race.
Democrat Gina Hinojosa leads Texas Gov. Greg Abbott in the Lone Star State’s gubernatorial contest.
Republicans are also facing unfavorable political currents in Florida, where both statewide and local races appear to be moving against the party.
Republican Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, who represents heavily Hispanic Miami-Dade County, released an advertisement Thursday criticizing parts of Trump’s immigration agenda. The move suggested that some of her constituents may view the president’s policies as excessively harsh.
Trump had endorsed her in her primary race last month.
Natalie Baldassarre, National Press Secretary at the Republican National Committee, sought to downplay the latest polling projections for the midterms, telling Our News Outlet that ‘polls serve as a snapshot in time, not a crystal ball.’
Republican Byron Donalds and Democrat David Jolly are in a tight race for Florida Governor
Florida Republican Congresswoman Maria Elvira Salazar blasted Trump’s immigration agenda in a campaign ad this week
Republicans are hoping the strident progressive positions of Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan will tank his chances against former Congressman Mike Rogers in that state’s Senate race.
But Emerson, an A-ranked pollster, found the insurgent Democrat narrowly leading Rogers, 48 percent to 46 percent, showcasing a contest that will likely come down to the wire.
Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the US Senate, when counting the two independents who caucus with Democrats.
Democrats need to flip four seats to wrest control of the majority.
Recent polls show the Michigan Senate race between Roger and El Sayed in a statistical tie
Terry Schilling, president of the conservative advocacy group American Principles Project, noted in a memo released to GOP candidates this week that despite political trends leaning away from Republicans, ‘our present data shows that the American people still have no taste for the obscene radicalism of the left.’
Schilling believes that if GOP candidates stay on offense in the ‘culture war’ and pair it with a ‘robust, populist economic message …the GOP might well buck historical precedent and win in November.’
But Republicans are being forced to try to preserve seats in red states that they never thought would be in play.
Louisiana Senator John Kennedy is campaigning in Nebraska, Kansas and Iowa this weekend.
‘If you told me six months ago I was going to have to be spending my time in those three states, I wouldn’t have believed you,’ Kennedy told reporters outside the Capitol this week. ‘Those ought to be fat guy lay ups for us.’
