Brigadier General Christoph Huber takes part in a public ceremony in Kaunas, Lithuania, on February 4, 2026, marking the expansion of Germany’s military commitment to the country.
Paulius Peleckis | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Danish intelligence officials have cautioned that Russia could carry out a “limited” military attack against a NATO member within the coming months, arguing that the Kremlin appears increasingly prepared to take risks after more than four and a half years of war in Ukraine.
In a report released Thursday, Denmark’s Defence Intelligence Service, or DDIS, said there was a “low but growing risk” that Russia could use long-range weapons to conduct isolated strikes against infrastructure vital to international support for Ukraine.
“A limited military attack would be a desperate move on Russia’s part and, like the intensified hybrid attacks, could potentially take place in the coming months,” the agency said.
The report said Moscow’s objective could be to pull European resources away from Ukraine and deepen divisions within NATO if the alliance failed to agree on a unified response.
The DDIS said it had found no signs that Russia was preparing for a full-scale invasion of a NATO member, while acknowledging that such a scenario could not be ruled out.
Russia could also send a small number of troops, potentially without national insignia, into neighboring NATO countries, Danish intelligence said. However, assembling such a force would be difficult to hide and would likely require several months of preparation.
The assessment comes as senior European security officials and lawmakers issue a growing number of warnings about the threat posed by Russia.
NATO members along Russia’s borders include Finland, Norway and Poland, as well as the Baltic nations of Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania.
Poland’s government said Thursday that a fire at a Starlink ground station was a deliberate act of sabotage intended to disrupt internet services, including communications used by Ukraine’s military.
Polish Deputy Prime Minister Krzysztof Gawkowski said investigators had not determined who was behind the blaze. Still, he said, “many signs suggest this aligns with Russia’s new doctrine of attack,” according to Reuters.
A spokesperson for Russia’s embassy in London did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment. The Kremlin has previously denied involvement in comparable incidents.
Denmark’s intelligence service also warned that Russia is likely to intensify its hybrid campaign against Western countries and NATO, launching attacks that could have “greater consequences for the targeted countries than in the past.”
The potential threats include major cyberattacks capable of severely disrupting essential public services, along with sabotage operations carrying a high risk of casualties, the DDIS said.
