WASHINGTON — The escalating trade war between the United States and Canada is affecting states at the center of some of the 2026 cycle’s most competitive Senate races, according to an analysis obtained by The Post.
Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio and Texas conducted a combined $188 billion in trade with Canada during the 12 months ending in June 2026. That represents more than one-quarter of the $674 billion in annual commerce between the two countries, according to the Advancing American Freedom Foundation, a conservative organization founded by former Vice President Mike Pence.
The AAF analysis also found that Canada accounted for a significant share of annual goods trade in several states during the same period: 29% in Iowa, 62% in Maine, 29% in Michigan, 30% in Minnesota, 23% in Ohio and 16% in New Hampshire.
Earlier this month, Canada imposed retaliatory tariffs of 15% to 50% on more than $20 billion worth of U.S. products, including steel, aluminum, wool, lumber, milk, T-shirts and air conditioners. President Trump responded by blocking Canadian products from federal contracts.
The United States had already imposed 50% tariffs on an estimated $28 billion in Canadian goods as of Aug. 22, targeting products such as beer, cheese and electronics.
“A trade war with Canada will negatively impact many states, especially those heavily engaging in trade with Canada, including energy- and mineral-rich states, many heavy-industry dependent states, and our agricultural heartlands,” the AAF said. The group has circulated its analysis among lawmakers on Capitol Hill.
Republicans are defending Senate seats in Iowa, Maine, Ohio and Texas while also seeking to capture Democratic-held seats in Minnesota and New Hampshire.
Sen. Susan Collins, a Maine Republican, has worked to separate herself from the White House’s tariff policy.
“The on-again/off-again trade talks between the US and Canada lead to higher costs, risk, and uncertainty for Maine businesses,” Collins said last month. “If the administration proceeds with these tariffs, they will increase costs for Maine families.”
Democrats must gain a net four seats to reclaim control of the Senate after spending two years in the minority.
