STAVANGER – This year’s Nobel Peace Prize speculation has reached the stars. Experts say the International Space Station could be an unexpected winner, while more conventional names in contention include U.S. President Donald Trump, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, Sudan’s emergency relief groups, Ukrainian children’s advocates and two major international courts.
The annual guessing season surrounding what is widely regarded as the world’s most prestigious prize is gathering pace ahead of the Norwegian Nobel Committee’s announcement in Oslo on Oct. 9.
Any forecast remains uncertain. The committee has a history of surprising — and sometimes divisive — selections. This year, it received 287 nominations, with organizations accounting for slightly more than one-quarter of the candidates.
Observers say the Nobel Committee generally looks for work that builds lasting peace, advances solidarity among nations and supports institutions capable of sustaining those ideals over time.
International Space Station seen as a model of cooperation
Haakon Gjerløw, director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo and one of the leading Nobel forecasters, points to the International Space Station — or the partnership that operates it — as an unusual example of countries working together. At a moment when multilateral cooperation is weakening and governments are increasingly turning inward, the ISS represents a shared international endeavor beyond Earth.
The institute’s yearly watch list is closely followed by analysts, prediction markets and Nobel watchers seeking clues about the strongest contenders.
Trump has openly expressed his ambition to receive the award and was nominated again this year. Still, his candidacy could prove contentious after the United States and Israel launched an ongoing war against Iran in February.
Trump and Canada’s Carney remain among the names in contention
Carney, meanwhile, has raised his international profile this year, particularly through his willingness to challenge Trump over issues including U.S. tariffs.
Gjerløw’s list also includes Mykola Kuleba, a Ukrainian children’s rights advocate, and Save the Children. Other nominees include Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, a grassroots network delivering aid, and the Committee to Protect Journalists, following the deadliest two-year period for journalists since records began nearly 45 years ago.
The International Court of Justice and International Criminal Court have been mentioned as possible joint recipients. The ICC has drawn both condemnation and praise for issuing arrest warrants for figures including Russian President Vladimir Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Trump has repeatedly attacked the ICC. In July, Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced an effort to “dismantle the threat … posed by the International Criminal Court to U.S. sovereignty.” Later that month, the court’s chief prosecutor was removed amid sexual misconduct allegations.
Gjerløw said the Nobel Committee is also confronting fresh complications following events involving 2025 laureate María Corina Machado of Venezuela. In a symbolic move, Machado handed her award to Trump days after U.S. forces ousted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
War and instability shape this year’s Nobel debate
The 2026 Peace Prize is being considered against a backdrop of widespread conflict, with wars and humanitarian crises continuing in Sudan, Ukraine, Yemen, Iran and across the Middle East. The level of global violence is among the highest seen in decades.
Shawn Davies, a senior analyst with the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, said rising tensions and a shifting international security system reflect a decline in the United States’ willingness to uphold global rules. In his view, Washington has moved from defending the postwar order to violating it in certain circumstances.
Davies said he could not imagine even Trump’s supporters believing he could win the prize now, given what he described as the president’s involvement in an apparently unending war in Iran.
Jody Williams, who shared the 1997 Nobel Peace Prize with the International Campaign to Ban Landmines, said she would like to see the committee continue recognizing women. Across the prize’s 125-year history, women have accounted for only 20 of its 112 individual laureates.
The recent record has been more balanced: Over the past 15 years, eight women have received the prize individually, compared with six men.
Among names of the women circulating in prediction markets this year are Gaza surgeon Sara al-Saqqa and Yulia Navalnaya, the Russian opposition figure and widow of Alexei Navalny.
Nobels start with prize for medicine
Nobel week kicks off Monday with the announcement of the medicine prize, followed by the physics prize on Tuesday, chemistry on Wednesday and literature on Thursday. After Friday’s peace prize is awarded, the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences will be announced on Oct. 12.
The prize money this year is 12 million Swedish kronor (about $1.2 million), whether for an individual, small group of laureates or organization.
When it comes to the peace prize selection, expect political fallout no matter who wins.
“Trump will be unhappy whoever gets the Nobel,” said Nelson Wiseman, a University of Toronto professor emeritus. “If Carney got it, it would make relations with Canada rockier than they are.”
