With Election Day only weeks away, Democrat James Talarico maintains a narrow lead over Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race, according to a new Fox News poll.
The survey was conducted shortly before leaked audio surfaced in which Paxton appeared to discuss the impact of President Donald Trump’s Republican midterm convention in Dallas.
Fox News’ latest figures show Talarico ahead by the slimmest possible margin.
Among 881 likely Texas voters surveyed from September 24 through 28, Talarico received 51 percent support to Paxton’s 49 percent. The two-point difference is within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.
The controversy over the recording broke Wednesday, September 30, after audio emerged of Paxton speaking at a private Washington fundraiser attended by roughly a dozen conservative donors and lobbyists.
At the gathering, an attendee asked whether “he” was “a little bit of a drag.”
Although the recording does not clearly identify the person being discussed, Paxton’s answer appears to shift toward Trump’s Republican convention in Dallas in September.
“To be honest with you, the numbers, when we did that convention, it dropped our numbers. Everybody’s numbers dropped. Right now, yeah, not good,” Paxton is heard saying.
“To be honest with you, the numbers, when we did that convention, it dropped our numbers. Everybody’s numbers dropped. Right now, yeah, not good,” Paxton is heard saying in leaked audio obtained by the New York Times
The Fox News poll, conducted September 24 through 28, gives Talarico 51 percent support and Paxton 49 percent among 881 likely Texas voters. The two-point margin falls within the poll’s ±3 percentage-point margin of error
Asked about the controversy Wednesday, Trump said he had not heard Paxton’s comments before describing the Dallas convention as “amazing”
The comments appeared to indicate that Paxton believed the convention had been followed by weaker numbers for Republican candidates, including himself.
That interpretation creates an uncomfortable moment for Paxton, a prominent Trump ally who won the Republican Senate nomination after securing the president’s endorsement.
Paxton’s campaign quickly rejected the report. Senior adviser Nick Maddux called it “more manipulated nonsense from the New York Times” and challenged the idea that Paxton’s support had fallen.
The campaign said its own most recent polling showed Paxton ahead by three points.
Trump, questioned about the controversy Wednesday, said he had not previously heard Paxton’s remarks while defending the Dallas gathering as “amazing.”
Vice President JD Vance likewise downplayed the private comments, saying Republicans would continue to support Paxton.
Paxton is also facing renewed scrutiny over his record after the Texas Senate acquitted him in 2023, following his historic impeachment by the state House on 16 articles.
The poll provides a new snapshot of an intensely competitive race. As Election Day approaches, Talarico holds only a razor-thin advantage over Paxton.
Paxton’s favorability rating is underwater, with 40 percent viewing him positively and 58 percent negatively, producing a net rating of minus 18
Talarico is viewed favorably by 52 percent, compared with 44 percent who view him unfavorably, giving him a net positive rating of eight points
Vice President JD Vance also brushed aside the significance of the private remarks and said Republicans would continue backing Paxton
The Democrat also enjoys a significantly stronger personal rating among voters.
Talarico is viewed favorably by 52 percent, compared with 44 percent who view him unfavorably, giving him a net positive rating of eight points.
Paxton, meanwhile, is underwater, with 40 percent viewing him favorably and 58 percent unfavorably, giving him a net rating of minus 18.
The poll also reveals a notable divide within the Republican electorate.
Non-MAGA Republicans are more than five times as likely to support Talarico as MAGA Republicans, with 22 percent compared with 4 percent crossing party lines to back the Democrat.
That crossover appears to reflect divisions that lingered after the hard-fought Republican primary and runoff.
Among likely voters who supported Republican Senator John Cornyn in the March primary, 20 percent now back Talarico.
Democratic voters, meanwhile, are showing exceptionally strong support for their nominee.
Fox News found that 100 percent of DSA Democrats and 98 percent of non-DSA Democrats back Talarico.
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Among likely voters who supported Republican Senator John Cornyn in the March primary, 20 percent now back Talarico
Fox News found that 100 percent of DSA Democrats and 98 percent of non-DSA Democrats back Talarico
Paxton’s strongest support comes from White evangelical Christians at 74 percent and White men without a college degree at 65 percent
Talarico is also running strongly among several groups, including Black voters at 79 percent, moderates at 65 percent, Hispanic voters at 64 percent and voters under 35 at 62 percent.
Paxton’s strongest support comes from White evangelical Christians at 74 percent, White men without a college degree at 65 percent, rural voters at 57 percent and voters aged 65 and over at 55 percent.
The poll suggests the economy could be another crucial battleground.
Seven in ten Texas voters say the cost of living will be extremely important to their Senate vote, while twice as many voters say they are falling behind financially as say they are getting ahead.
Those who say they are falling behind financially back Talarico by 32 points, while voters who say they are getting ahead favor Paxton by 48 points.
Those who say they are holding steady narrowly favor Paxton by three points.
The two candidates also have sharply different advantages depending on the issue.
Voters who say cost of living is extremely important favor Talarico by 19 points, while those focused on artificial intelligence favor him by 18 points.
Immigration-focused voters favor Paxton by 20 points.The current Republican Party of Texas legislative priorities explicitly include ‘Border Enforcement’
Ken Paxton’s latest campaign ad took a more personable approach, featuring his daughter, Mattie Hayworth, whopraised her father as a fighter for family values and portraying him as a role model
A Talarico campaign ad running since August highlights Paxton’s large real-estate portfolio and his 2023 impeachment, while Talarico makes a corruption allegation against him
Immigration-focused voters, however, favor Paxton by 20 points.
Trump remains another important factor.
The poll finds that 44 percent of Texas voters approve of the job Trump is doing, while 55 percent disapprove.
Talarico leads among voters who say Trump will be extremely important to their Senate vote, while Paxton holds a substantial advantage among those focused on immigration.
Both candidates face ideological concerns of their own.
Fifty-three percent of voters say they are concerned that Talarico is too liberal on the issues, while 51 percent say they are concerned that Paxton is too close to Trump.
The Fox News survey also found a larger Talarico advantage among the broader population of registered voters, where the Democrat leads by seven points, compared with a three-point advantage in July.
Still, the likely-voter numbers remain exceptionally close. The 51–49 result falls within the poll’s margin of sampling error, meaning it does not establish a statistically clear leader.
The survey interviewed 1,203 registered Texas voters, including the 881 likely voters used for the Senate matchup.
The registered-voter sample has a ±2.5 percentage-point margin of sampling error, while the likely-voter subsample has a ±3-point margin.
The two candidates have been going back and forth at one another in a barrage of attack ads, in their last attempts to sway voters.
On Friday, Talarico’s latest ad directly answers Republican attacks against him, pushing back against claims that he is a member of the Chinese Communist Party or supports gender-transition surgeries for minors.
The Democrat also accuses Paxton of using AI-generated videos to distort his record, delivering the pointed line: ‘The truth about Ken Paxton is bad enough.’
Paxton, meanwhile, has taken a more personal approach in his latest Friday ad, featuring his daughter, Mattie Hayworth, praising her father as a fighter for family values and portraying him as a role model.
The escalating ad war comes as outside groups pour enormous sums into the contest.
Republican groups alone spent roughly $122 million on Texas advertising during September, according to the Texas Tribune, with another $66 million reportedly reserved through Election Day.
