A startling internal poll points to a major slide in Labor support in the Melbourne stronghold of Footscray, where One Nation has edged ahead of the governing party on primary votes in a seat Labor has held for nearly a century.
The Greens-commissioned survey of 1,000 voters, conducted from September 22 to October 1, recorded One Nation on 28.6 per cent of the primary vote, just ahead of Labor on 27.5 per cent.
That finding represents a dramatic turnaround from the 2022 Victorian election, when Labor captured 43.1 per cent of the primary vote in Footscray.
If the result were repeated at the election, Labor’s primary vote would have fallen by 15.6 percentage points in four years.
The survey gives the Liberals 15.1 per cent, the Greens 14.9 per cent and other parties and independents a combined 13.9 per cent.
Labor has held Footscray without interruption since the electorate was created in 1927, making it a key part of the party’s traditional base in Melbourne’s west.
The seat includes Footscray, Maidstone, Maribyrnong, Seddon and West Footscray, along with parts of Yarraville.
Labor MP Katie Hall, first elected in 2018, received 43.1 per cent of the primary vote at the 2022 election before defeating the Greens on preferences.
One Nation recorded a 28.6 per cent primary vote in a Greens-commissioned internal poll of Footscray
The Greens were second on 22.4 per cent, while the Liberals polled 17.9 per cent.
One Nation is fielding Alexander Lopez, a financial controller whose candidate profile says he has more than 30 years of experience spanning transport and logistics, manufacturing, recycling, automation and commercial property management.
Mr Lopez was born in Argentina and moved to Australia in 1975. His family settled in Footscray, where he grew up in Melbourne’s western suburbs.
He went to Hyde Street Primary School and remains active in the local community, including through masters football.
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The poll also delivers a significant setback for the Greens, who were Labor’s principal challenger in Footscray at the last election.
Greens candidate Elena Pereyra secured 22.4 per cent of the primary vote in 2022 and progressed to the final count against Ms Hall.
However, the latest figures suggest Greens support has dropped substantially, placing the party behind both One Nation and Labor.
The warning signs for Labor are potentially even more serious.
Ben Carroll, pictured, faces pressure as polling points to a sharp decline in Labor’s vote since 2022
Footscray has traditionally been viewed as one of Victoria’s safest seats, with Labor retaining the electorate throughout its 99-year history.
The internal polling in Footscray comes amid wider signs of trouble for Labor across Victoria, where the party continues to record weak results in public surveys ahead of the November election.
A Freshwater Strategy poll of 1,030 voters conducted between September 24 and 28 found Labor’s primary vote had slipped one point since August to 24 per cent, while the Coalition also fell one point to 29 per cent.
One Nation remained steady at 22 per cent, while the Greens were unchanged on 14 per cent.
The survey put the Coalition ahead of Labor 53-47 on a two-party preferred basis, representing an eight-point swing against the government compared with the 2022 election and a one-point improvement for the Coalition since Freshwater’s August poll.
Opposition Leader Jess Wilson topped the poll as preferred Premier with 37 per cent with Ben Carroll in second at 30 per cent.
One Nation Victorian leader Warren Pickering was preferred premier by just 13 per cent of voters.
