Ukraine’s Robot Offensive Exposes Weakness in Putin’s War Machine

A surprise Ukrainian offensive using robotic systems in the eastern Donbas appears to have rolled back more than a year of Russian territorial advances, security experts say, delivering a major strategic setback to President Vladimir Putin’s ambitions in the region.

New details of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, known as “Operation Vivaldi,” have emerged in recent weeks, providing a rare look at how rapidly technology is reshaping frontline combat during Russia’s full-scale invasion.

The operation began in May. Security experts said Ukraine’s Third Army Corps used large bomber drones and remotely operated ground vehicles behind Russian lines near Lyman in northern Donetsk Oblast, apparently taking Russian forces by surprise.

For the past year, Russian troops have tried to encircle the cities of Ukraine’s so-called fortress belt, the last major areas of the region still under Ukrainian control.

The third stage of Operation Vivaldi recaptured another 51 square kilometers, bringing the total territory reclaimed to 176 square kilometers, Ukrainian Brigadier-General Andrii Biletskyi said on Sept. 28. He said the latest fighting caused more than 2,000 Russian casualties and resulted in over 250 Russian soldiers being captured.

Patrick Bolder, a defense expert and strategic adviser at the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, called the operation a “big bloody nose” for Putin’s limited war objective of capturing Ukraine’s Donbas.

Bolder said Ukraine not only kept the operation secret, but also used disinformation aimed at Russia and conducted a months-long air campaign to disrupt supplies reaching the front. Ukrainian forces, he added, secured control of the skies around Lyman and prevented Russia from operating its drones effectively.

That air advantage allowed Ukrainian forces to send drones behind Russian lines and release unmanned ground vehicles, which then attacked Russian troops from the rear without exposing Ukrainian personnel to the same risks, Bolder said.

“They put this together masterly,” Bolder said.

“Gaining the Donbas is very far away at the moment,” Bolder said of the Kremlin’s objective. Ukrainian forces have moved into positions that are easier to defend, he added, making another Russian attempt significantly more difficult.

A spokesperson for Russia’s Embassy in London was unavailable for comment when contacted by CNBC on Friday.

Still, security experts cautioned that Ukraine’s use of robotic systems should not be interpreted as a decisive breakthrough.

The operation nevertheless sends “a powerful message to Moscow and to Kyiv’s partners that the highly innovative Ukrainian military remains capable of defeating Russia on the battlefield,” said David Kirichenko, an associate research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, a U.K.-based national security think tank.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy lauded the success of Ukraine’s Third Army Corps when he met with soldiers carrying out the counteroffensive, describing the operation as “important in many ways” for Ukraine’s defense overall, and the Donbas region especially.

“One particularly promising area now is replacing our warriors with ground robotic systems wherever possible,” Zelenskyy said in a social media post on Sept. 30.

“During Vivaldi, this capability allowed us to accomplish many things. We will scale it up so that, more and more often, a drone rather than a warrior carries out the most dangerous tasks at the front,” he added.

Russia has stepped up its attacks on Ukraine’s capital and major cities in recent days, targeting data centers, communications and energy infrastructure as it seeks to disrupt the flow of information and force power cuts ahead of winter.

Ukrainian officials have expressed deep concern over the attacks, saying there is an urgent need for the country to be able to rapidly respond to missile and drone threats.

Ukraine, for its part, has sought to raise the cost of Russia’s more than four-and-a-half-year war against it, targeting the country’s oil refineries and logistics hubs.

Robotic systems have become one of the key factors in Ukraine’s counter-offensive operations, according to Serhii Kuzan, chairman of the Kyiv-based Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center think tank.

“Their use has not only reduced the risks to personnel but has also changed the very logic of combat: where previously dozens or hundreds of soldiers were required, remotely controlled platforms are increasingly being deployed,” Kuzan told CNBC by email.

“The experience of Operation ‘Vivaldi’ has demonstrated that the systematic replacement of human personnel with robots is changing the paradigm of modern warfare, enabling tasks to be carried out with minimal personnel losses.”

Ultimately, Kuzan said Ukraine’s counter-offensive in the Lyman area had been aimed at seizing the initiative on the battlefield, “which will ultimately force the Russian army to abandon the objectives set by its political leadership.”

Ukrainian officials have reported that Russia’s political leadership had previously set an objective to capture the Donetsk region by the end of the year, although the Russian military is said to now be seeking an extension to March next year.

“This is because, according to Ukrainian intelligence, on the main thrust directions of Kostiantynivka, Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, the Russian army is suffering its heaviest losses, accounting for 70–80 per cent of all casualties,” Kuzan said.