With the 2026 midterm elections now less than a month away, Democrats have expanded their House battlefield to include six districts that Donald Trump won by double-digit margins in 2024.
The most Republican-leaning contests on the list are New York’s 21st Congressional District and Tennessee’s newly redrawn 9th District, where Trump prevailed by 21 percentage points. Blake Gendebien is the Democratic candidate in New York, while Justin Pearson is running in Tennessee.
In Arkansas, Chris Jones is challenging for the 2nd District, which Trump carried by 16 points. Eliott Rodriguez is seeking the Democratic nomination in Florida’s 27th District, where Trump’s margin was 15 points.
Teresa Benitez-Thompson is competing in Nevada’s open 2nd District, won by Trump with a 14-point advantage. Dwayne Romero is the Democratic contender in Colorado’s 3rd District, where Trump’s victory margin reached 10 points.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee placed all six candidates in its “Red to Blue” program on Sunday, signaling that the party sees potential opportunities even in districts that strongly backed Trump.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said strong performances by Democratic incumbents on the front lines have allowed the party to expand its offensive strategy into districts Trump won comfortably in 2024.
An analysis released last month by the Cook Political Report projects that Democrats could gain at least 15 House seats and between one and five Senate seats.
Democrats are also mounting Senate challenges in traditionally Republican states, including Kansas, which has not sent a Democrat to the chamber since 1932.
Donald Trump speaks with reporters at the White House alongside House Speaker Mike Johnson on Tuesday
Teresa Benitez-Thompson is running in Nevada’s open 2nd District, while Dwayne Romero is challenging in Colorado’s 3rd District
Tim Scott, the National Republican Senatorial Committee chairman and the GOP’s Senate campaign chief, has acknowledged that the Kansas contest cannot be taken for granted.
“I think if you look at Kansas, it’s a very competitive state, more competitive than I’d like to see it,” Scott told reporters during a press call Wednesday. He nevertheless insisted that Republicans would ultimately hold the seat.
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A New York Times/Siena poll of 605 voters conducted from September 22 through September 30 found Republican Senator Roger Marshall tied with Democrat Adam Hamilton, a megachurch pastor, at 45 percent each.
The Cook Political Report downgraded the race on September 23, moving it from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.”
Marshall, a former obstetrician-gynecologist, has also drawn scrutiny after the New York Times reported that he sued patients over unpaid medical bills. Cook cited the controversy when it reassessed the contest.
The senator has separately faced questions about his residency after selling his home in Great Bend just 10 days after taking his Senate oath in 2021, according to the Kansas City Star.
Democrats must gain at least three House seats to take back the lower chamber. In the Senate, they need four pickups to overcome the Republican advantage, which currently stands at 53-47, counting two independents who caucus with Democrats.
The House currently has 218 Republicans and 214 Democrats, along with one vacancy held by each party. One additional seat belongs to California Republican Kevin Kiley, who became an independent earlier this year after redistricting affected his district.
House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York speaks at a news conference at the Capitol in Washington on Wednesday, September 30, 2026
Senator Roger Marshall listens as Vice President JD Vance speaks during an event in Olathe, Kansas, on September 14, 2026
The Iran war and its impact on the economy remains the number one issue facing Trump’s party.
Republican Senator John Kennedy of Louisiana told reporters last week: ‘I’m not going to tell the voters, “Oh, it’s President Biden’s fault, and it’s not that bad, you shouldn’t believe your checkbooks.”‘
Kennedy, whose home state backed Trump by 22 points, added: ‘The main reason for the resurgence in inflation is the Iran war. I think they appreciate the truth, but they’re angry.’
